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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 260602

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0540 UTC.


A strong cold front is in the Texas coastal plains. The front 
will be entering the NW Gulf of Mexico during the late night/ 
early morning hours of Tuesday night into Wednesday. The 
forecast for Wednesday morning consists of: gale-force N winds, 
and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 16 feet, from 22N to 26N 
from 96W westward, behind the front. Wind speeds as fast as 45 
knots, with possible gusts to storm-force, and sea heights 
ranging from 10 feet to 16 feet, are forecast for Wednesday 
afternoon. Storm-force wind conditions are forecast just before 
Wednesday night starts, from 20N southward from 96W westward. 
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 
to the website, 
from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.


It is likely that heavy rainfall may affect northwestern and 
north central sections of Honduras, from Thursday through 
Saturday, behind a strong cold front. It is possible that the 
heavy rain in Honduras may lead to significant flash floods and 
mudslides. A period of heavy rain is likely, also, from 
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, in central Guatemala and 
in the southeastern parts of the Mexican states of Veracruz and 
northern Chiapas. Some localized flooding is possible in SE 
Mexico and in Guatemala. The greatest threat for flooding is in 
northern Honduras. Please monitor the latest forecasts from your 
local or national meteorological service.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia 
near 06N10W, to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W, to 
04N20W, 01N30W, crossing the Equator along 34W, to 03N44W at the 
coast of Brazil. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered 
moderate and isolated strong is within 280 nm to the north of 
ITCZ between 30W and 44W. Scattered moderate to strong is within 
125 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 17W and 22W.
Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 07N southward.


A stationary front passes through the Florida Panhandle, into 
the north central Gulf of Mexico, to the Lower Valley of Texas.
A second and stronger cold front is in the Texas coastal plains 
now. It will be moving into the Gulf of Mexico soon. Please read 
the SPECIAL FEATURES section, in order to be aware of the gale-
force and storm-force wind conditions that are in the forecast.
Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and 
possible rainshowers are to the NW of the line that runs from 
the west central coast of Florida into the SW corner of the Gulf 
of Mexico.

A 1011 mb low is near 29N89W with a cold front extending to 
26N93W and to inland Texas just north of Brownsville. A strong 
cold front will blast into the NW and north-central Gulf tonight 
into early Wed and overtake this front on Wed. The merged cold 
front will quickly move to the southeast of the area by Wed 
night. Storm force winds are expected over a portion of the SW 
Gulf on Wed afternoon before diminishing to strong gale force 
winds on Wed night. Gale force winds are expected elsewhere 
behind the front over the central and western Gulf waters 
through Wed night. Seas will build to large values behind the 
front resulting in possible hazardous marine conditions. For the 
remainder of the Gulf, expect strong to near gale force 
northwest winds during this period. Winds and associated seas 
will diminish Thu through Fri as high pressure settles in over 
the NW Gulf. The southern part of a cold front will clip the NE 
Gulf Fri night into Sat followed by fresh to strong northwest 
winds. The high pressure will shift eastward to the NE Gulf by 
late Sun behind this front. 


An upper level ridge is in Central America. It is pushing upper 
level westerly wind across the Caribbean Sea.

Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and 
possible rainshowers are in the Caribbean Sea to the north of 
the line that runs from 16N83W to 14N74W to 10N63W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that 
ended at 26/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE 

High pressure north and east of the Caribbean in combination 
with low pressure over S America will maintain strong northeast 
to east winds pulsing each night through the weekend off the 
Colombian coast. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean 
Wed evening, then push southeastward to a position from eastern 
Cuba to eastern Honduras by Thu evening. The front will become 
stationary from Hispaniola to Costa Rica by Sun morning. Fresh 
to strong N winds can be expected in the wake of this wake of 
this front.


A slowly-moving cold front passes through 32N45W, to 26N50W, to 
21N56W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated 
strong is within 90 nm to the SE and within 60 nm to the NW of 
the cold front, from 23N northward. Broken to overcast 
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 
14N to 27N between 50W and 60W.

A surface trough is along 32W/33W from 17N to 29N. The trough 
replaces the low pressure center from 18 hours ago. An upper 
level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N33W. Comparatively 
drier air in subsidence is within 700 nm to 800 nm of the upper 
level cyclonic center in the S semicircle. Precipitation: 
rainshowers are possible within 500 nm to the east of the trough 
from 26N to 31N, and within 400 nm to the west of the trough 
from 14N to 30N.

Fresh to strong south to southwest north of the Bahamas will 
shift eastward and diminish some through early Wed in advance of 
a cold front that will move off the southeastern U.S. coast Wed. 
Behind the front, strong northeast winds will occur Wed night 
into Thu north of the Bahamas, when the front will reach a 
Bahamas to eastern Cuba line. The front will slow down and 
become stationary during the weekend from near 31N60W to 
Hispaniola. A reinforcing cold front could bring strong 
northwest winds to areas north of 25N this weekend.