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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 180001
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Humberto is centered near 31.2N 71.6W at 18/0000 UTC or
350 nm WSW of Bermuda moving ENE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum 
central pressure is 951 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt
with gusts to 120 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 75 nm 
in the NE semicircle and 90 nm in the SW semicircle. Scattered 
moderate convection is elsewhere within 300 nm in the NE quadrant,
120 nm in the S semicircle, and 180 nm in the NW quadrant. 
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and
Humberto could become a major hurricane late tonight or on 
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto is 
expected to pass just to the NW and N of Bermuda Wednesday night. 
See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Depression Ten is centered near 13.4N 45.6W at 17/2100
UTC or 960 nm E of the Leeward Islands moving WNW at 9 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous strong 
convection is within 150 nm in the W quadrant. Scattered moderate
convection is within 90 nm in the E semicircle, and elsewhere
within 240 nm in the W semicircle. Strengthening is forecast during
the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become
a tropical storm tonight. The system is forecast become a 
hurricane by the time it moves near the northern Leeward Islands.
See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

The now Tropical Depression Imelda is centered near 29.6N 95.4W 
at 18/0000 UTC, or 4 nm N of Houston Texas, moving N at 6 kt. 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained 
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate and 
scattered strong convection is within 150 nm in the NE and SW 
quadrants, within 210 nm in the SE quadrant, and within 120 nm in 
the NW quadrant. Imelda is forecast to produce heavy rainfall over
the upper coastal region of Texas, including the Houston and 
Galveston areas, and SE Texas and SW Louisiana through Thursday. 
This rainfall may produce significant to life-threatening flash 
floods. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 33W S of 18N, 
is moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 
13N- 16N between 33W-36W.

An east-central Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 70W S of 
19N, is nearly stationary. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is from 14N-19N between 68W-72W.

A west Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 78W S of 17N, 
is moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over the 
SW Caribbean south of 12N between between 76W-82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W 
to 13N27W to 13N42W, then resumes west of T.D. Ten near 11N47W to
08N50W. The ITCZ begins near 08N50W to the coast of Guyana near 
08N59W. Aside from the convection already discussed in the 
Tropical Waves section above, scattered showers are noted along
the boundaries between 35W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

T.D Imelda is along the Texas coast. Refer to the section above 
for details. Scattered showers are developing over the Yucatan 
Peninsula and moving west reaching the Bay of Campeche. Surface 
ridging prevails over the eastern Gulf of Mexico with fair 
weather.

Imelda will continue moving northward through eastern Texas Thu 
and weaken into a remnant low, then dissipate Fri. High pressure 
will build over the north central Gulf in the wake of Imelda 
tonight, supporting gentle to moderate winds through mid week, 
except for moderate to fresh winds off the west coast of Yucatan 
at night. The high pressure will dissipate later in the week in 
advance of a weak cold front that is forecast to move across the 
eastern Gulf of Mexico then stall and dissipate over the southeast
Gulf Fri into Sat. Fresh winds and building seas will follow the 
front over the eastern Gulf Fri into Sat. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the two
tropical waves currently over the Caribbean.

Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle trades
prevailing across most of the basin except east of 70W, where
moderate to fresh winds are depicted.

Moderate to fresh trade winds will expand across the basin and
prevail through the forecast period. 

T.D.Ten will strengthen to a hurricane near 18.9N 60.3W by Fri 
afternoon. Ten will change little in intensity as it approaches
the northeast Caribbean near 20.9N 66.0W by Sat afternoon, and 
continue to 23.5N 70.5W by Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Humberto,
T.D.Ten, and the tropical wave moving across the basin.

A 1020 mb surface high is over the central Atlantic near 29N48W. 
To the east, a stationary front enters the discussion area near 
31N29W to 26N40W to 25N54W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of
the front. A surface trough is analyzed south of the front from
23N45W to 19N49W. 

Hurricane Humberto will move to 31.5N 70.5W Wed morning and 32.6N
67.6W Wed afternoon. Humberto will move north of Bermuda Wed 
night and father into the central north Atlantic waters through 
the remainder of the week, then weaken as an extratropical cyclone
over the weekend. T.D. Ten will strengthen to a tropical storm 
near 14.1N 46.9W Wed morning, move to 15.0N 48.9W Wed afternoon, 
15.9N 51.4W Thu morning, 16.9N 54.1W Thu afternoon, and strengthen
to a hurricane near 18.9N 60.3W Fri afternoon. Ten will change 
little in intensity as it moves to near 20.9N 66.0W Sat afternoon,
and continue to near 23.5N 70.5W Sun. The front will dissipate
through the next 24 hours.

$$
Lewitsky/ERA