000
AXNT20 KNHC 272348
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Jul 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed over the eastern Atlantic near 35.5W,
south of 16N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms are seen from 06-10N between 35-40W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic near 59W, south of 
22N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are seen near the north end of the wave axis. 

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean near 68.5W, south of 
20N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
active from 14-19N between 65-70W.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean near 85W, south of 
20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are occurring in the Gulf of Honduras and offshore 
of Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 06N40W. The 
ITCZ is analyzed from 06N40W to 08N56W. In addition to the 
convection described above in the Tropical Wave section, scattered
moderate convection is evident from 09-13N between the coast of 
Africa and 26W, and from 05N-08N between 45W-53W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Divergence aloft continues to support scattered showers and 
thunderstorms offshore of eastern Mexico to 95W, while the rest of
the basin is under a weak surface ridge that promotes generally 
dry conditions. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are noted east of
90W, with moderate to locally fresh SE winds occurring west of 
90W. Locally fresh E to NE winds are occurring just offshore of 
the Yucatan Peninsula into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough
moves westward over the peninsula. Seas of 3-5 ft are occurring 
over much of the basin, with 1-3 ft seas in the northeastern Gulf. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will 
develop off the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening 
through Mon night as a trough develops inland daily and shifts 
westward over the Bay of Campeche overnight. Elsewhere, high 
pressure will dominate the basin through the middle of next week, 
supporting mostly gentle to moderate breezes and slight to 
moderate seas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge over the SE United States is forcing moderate to fresh 
easterly winds over much of the Caribbean Sea, with locally strong
northeast winds occurring offshore of northern Colombia. Seas of 
5-7 ft are noted across the central through northwestern basin, 
with 3-5 ft seas in the eastern Caribbean. Convection is described
in the Tropical Waves section above.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high 
pressure and lower pressure over Colombia will support fresh winds
and rough seas over the central Caribbean. Strong winds will 
pulse off Colombia by mid week as the high pressure builds north 
of the area. Generally moderate winds and seas will prevail 
elsewhere. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak 1017 mb surface low is centered near 29N70W, with three 
troughs extending from the center. One trough extends 
northeastward to 31N57.5W, and scattered showers and thunderstorms
are occurring along and south of this feature. A surface ridge 
extends from 1031 mb high pressure near the Azores to the central 
Atlantic near 28N60W. A weak trough is analyzed from 28N27W to 
22N35W. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds and 4-7 ft seas are seen 
across the tropical Atlantic N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. The
remainder of the basin is seeing gentle to moderate or weaker 
winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the 
weather pattern across the forecast region, supporting fresh winds
north of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage 
through tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds along with 
mostly moderate seas are expected. 

$$
ADAMS