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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 251801

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
201 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1745 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from Liberia near 06N10W to near 
03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to 00N27W to the coast of 
Brazil near 02S40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is along the monsoon trough and the ITCZ from the Equator
extending north to 05N between 10W-20W and 22W-26W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted south of the ITCZ near the coast 
of Brazil from 02S-06S between 31W-36W. 


A cold front extends from SW Louisiana near 29N93W to the coast 
of Mexico near 24N98W. Radar imagery shows scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection over the NW Gulf of Mexico W of a line 
from Louisiana to the Gulf of Mexico near 27N94W. Ahead of the 
front, a 1007 mb low is centered near 20N96W with a trough from 
25N93W to 18N97W. A 1019 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 
29N71W producing gentle to moderate SE return flow over the 
eastern Gulf of Mexico. Weakest winds are over the NE Gulf, and 
strongest winds are over the W Gulf W of 90W. Areas of fog are 
observed ahead of the front over the NW Gulf waters near 28N-27N 
between 91W-94W. Light to medium smoke is over the SW Gulf W of a 
line from Corpus Christi Texas to Merida Mexico. In the upper 
levels, a sharp trough is over Texas, while a ridge is over the 
eastern Gulf. 

A cold front currently extends from SW Louisiana to the Mexico 
coast near 24N98W. Expect strong to gale force NW winds near the 
coast of Veracruz Mexico for this afternoon and tonight. 
Thunderstorms will accompany the front as it moves eastward across
the forecast waters. The front will stall in the SE Gulf of 
Mexico on Friday night, and it will dissipate by Sunday. High 
pressure will build in the wake of the front and prevail through 
early next week. 


A 1010 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 08N75W. Scattered
high clouds are streaming across the southern half of the
Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers are observed over Hispaniola and
E Cuba. 10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with 
strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia and the Gulf of
Honduras. In the upper levels, strong subsidence covers the 
entire Caribbean Sea. 

Off the coast of Colombia...expect the winds to pulse to fresh to
strong, tonight and on Friday night, and from Sunday night beyond
Monday night. Expect 8 ft seas tonight and on Sunday morning. 
Expect 8 to 12 ft seas from Sunday night beyond Monday night. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. Trade winds will
increase early next week as high pressure builds north of the 


A 1019 mb high is over the western Atlantic near 29N71W. A 1015 
mb low is near 29N53W, depicted by a swirl of low clouds. A surface
trough extends S from the low to 22N59W. Scattered showers are within
120 nm of the trough. A 1014 mb low is over the central Atlantic 
near 32N47W. Another surface trough is over the central Atlantic 
from 22N43W to 14N58W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm on
either side of the trough. A surface trough is also present north 
of the central Bahamas near 26N71W to 23N74W.

High pressure over the forecast waters will retreat eastward 
today ahead of a cold front that will move off the northeast 
Florida coast Fri evening. The front will move east and stall from
Bermuda to the northern Florida Keys by late Sat, then dissipate 
as it moves slowly northward through early next week. 

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