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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 172343

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
643 PM EST Sat Nov 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2345 UTC. 


The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone 
near 09N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 
04N34W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate 
convection is along and well south of the monsoon trough from 
02N-10N between 09W-22W. Elsewhere, a scattered convection is 
along the ITCZ from 01N-08N between 30W-42W. Another area of 
scattered convection has developed north of the ITCZ from 03N- 
09N between 46W-49W. 


A 1025 mb surface high pressure centered over northern Alabama 
near 34N87W extends over the northeastern and central Gulf of 
Mexico. Scattered to broken low level stratocumulus clouds are 
over portions of the central Gulf from 24N-30N between 85W-96W. 

In the upper levels, high clouds are noted over southeast Texas
and the NW Gulf. Strong subsidence is over the eastern and
southern Gulf.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters producing a gentle to 
moderate anticyclonic flow through Sun. Moderate to locally fresh
return flow will set up across the western Gulf on Sun, ahead of 
the next cold front forecast to reach the coast of Texas on Sun 
night. The front will move slowly across the NW Gulf through Mon 
night, reach from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico by early 
Tue morning, and move back toward the coast of Texas Tue night 
into Wed. 


AS of 21Z, a stationary front extends from the central Bahamas to
Camaguey Cuba to the Cayman Islands to 19N78W and transitions to 
a dissipating front at that point to 16N87W. Latest scatterometer
and nearby observations show moderate to fresh winds from 21N84W 
to near the coast of Honduras 16N84W. In the upper levels, upper 
level diffluence is noted over the western Caribbean. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 16N-18N 
between 84W-88W. 

In the SW Caribbean, scattered showers extend out to 90 nm from
the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama from 09N-12N 
between 82W-84W. This activity is influenced by the East Pacific 
monsoon trough. East of 77W, the Caribbean is relatively quiet, 
with the exception of scattered showers over Cuba and Hispaniola. 

The front is forecast to dissipate on Sun. Expect fresh to strong
winds and building seas across the eastern and central Caribbean 
through Tue, with seas of 10 or 11 ft near the coast of Colombia.


A cold front enters the forecast area over the W Atlantic from 
30N66W to 26N71W, where it becomes stationary with a 1013 mb low
pressure. The stationary front continues to the central Bahamas 
and into the NW Caribbean Sea. A 1013 mb surface low is centered 
just SE of the front near 25N72W at 2100 UTC, and a surface 
trough extends south-southwestward from the low to 20N74W. 
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection extends outward 
to 180 nm E-NE of the surface low. Northeast of this convection, 
scattered moderate convection associated with the front extends 
about 60 nm NW of the front and 100 nm SE of the front north of 
30N east of 60W. A 1024 mb high is over the central Atlantic near
29N45W. A cold front is over the E Atlantic from 30N12W to 22N28W
and dissipating at that point to 22N36W. Scattered showers are 
along and out to 60 nm southeast of the front. 

A cold front extends from 31N65W to a 1013 mb low pres located 
near 25.5N71.5W then continues as stationary front across the SE 
Bahamas to eastern Cuba. The front combined with the weak low is 
generating scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms within
about 90 nm E of front/low, and fresh to strong winds mainly N of
24N. Expect the front to become stationary from 31N64W to the SE 
Bahamas to E Cuba tonight. Then, the front will gradually 
dissipate through Sun night.

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