000
AXNT20 KNHC 070739
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu May 7 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 33.5W,
S of 11N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Nearby convection is 
discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N15.5W and 
continues southwestward to near 01.5S31W, with the tropical
wave described above to the west. The ITCZ is analyzed from west
of the tropical wave near 02N37W to near the coast of Brazil at
00N47W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is noted
S of 04N along both, the ITCZ and the monsoon trough, and near the
tropical wave.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak cold front is moving into the Texas coastal waters, with 
high pressure ridging in control across the waters ahead of it. 
The pressure gradient between high pressure over the E Gulf and 
lower pressures over Mexico is supporting gentle to moderate SE 
winds over the eastern Gulf E of 86W, and across the western Gulf 
nearshore waters where the pressure gradient has weakened slightly
due to front moving toward the SW Louisiana and Texas coasts. 
Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere, mainly in the central 
Gulf, with locally strong SE winds near the Yucatan Peninsula due 
to the diurnal trough. Seas are 4-6 ft N of 21N and W of 89W, 
except lower in the coastal waters, and 1-3 ft across the 
remainder of the basin, including the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, the weak front is forecast to move slowly 
today, and quickly stall just beyond the Texas coastal waters by 
this evening, then lift back to the north as a warm front Fri into
Sat as high pressure ridging builds back in across the basin from
the east. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong near the Yucatan 
Peninsula in the evenings through Sat. Looking ahead, another cold
front may try to move into the northern Gulf waters late on Sun, 
and reach from north- central Florida to eastern Bay of Campeche 
by late on Mon, followed by moderate to fresh north to northeast 
winds. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some 
possibly strong to marginally severe, are possible to precede the 
fronts. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and 
relatively lower pressure in northern South America is supporting
fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean, where seas
are in the 6-9 ft range. Similar winds are in the Gulf of Honduras
with 5-7 ft seas. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds and 4-6 ft seas
prevail elsewhere from 10.5N to 19N, as well as S of the Yucatan
Channel, with mainly gentle winds across the remainder of the
basin, including near the Windward Passage, the lee of Cuba, and
SW Caribbean S of 10.5N, along with 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between central Atlantic 
high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South 
America will continue to sustain fresh to strong trades over the 
south-central Caribbean along with locally rough seas through the 
forecast period, with similar conditions expected in the Gulf of 
Honduras, though diminishing there Mon night as a cold front may 
approach the NW Caribbean from the Gulf of America. Moderate to 
fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the eastern and 
central Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening frontal system with attendant low pressure is in the 
process of moving through into the Mid-Atlantic and SE United 
States. Numerous convection is out ahead of the front from 
northern Florida and Georgia northward to the Delmarva and beyond.
Some of this convection is impacting the waters off SE Georgia 
and northern Florida, while winds there out of the S have 
increased to moderate to fresh. To the E, a weakening front 
extends from low pressure N of the discussion waters through 
31N56W to 27.5N70W, with scattered moderate convection present N 
of 25N within of about 240 nm E-SE of the front. Seas are 4-6 ft 
N of 28N between 54W and 64W. Continuing eastward, high pressure N
of the area combined with broad troughing supports moderate to 
locally fresh mainly NE-E winds and 6-8 ft seas across the area N 
of 20N between 20W and 47W. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the 
remainder of the tropical Atlantic waters, along with 4-6 ft seas,
except 3-4 ft W of 64W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the weakening front in the central
Atlantic is forecast to slowly shift east while washing out 
today. Another front will move off northern Florida tonight, 
gradually losing definition as it shifts across the northern 
waters through Sat. Southerly winds are expected to freshen off 
northern Florida Sun night ahead of a stronger front that is 
expected to move across the northwest forecast waters through Mon 
night, followed by moderate to fresh northwest winds. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to 
marginally severe, are possible ahead of both fronts. Otherwise, a
high pressure ridge extending from near 30N55W to near Cape 
Canaveral, Florida will be in place during the forecast period, 
allowing for generally quiet conditions across the area. 
Meanwhile, winds may pulse to moderate to fresh off northern 
Hispaniola, increasing to fresh to strong this weekend and into 
early next week. 

$$
Lewitsky