602 
AXNT20 KNHC 151825
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu May 15 2025

Corrected Atlantic Ocean section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between high 
pressure of 1024 mb centered just NW of Madeira Island and 
relatively lower pressures in NW Africa has initiated gale-force 
N to NE winds in the eastern portion of the Meteo-France marine 
zone of Agadir. These conditions are forecast to last until 
16/00 UTC tonight. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas 
Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Guinea Bissau near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 06N20W, 
where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 03N30W to 
02N40W to 02N45W and to near 04N41W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ 
between 21W-24W, from 04N to 06N between 36W-44W and within 60 nm 
north of the ITCZ between 22W-25W. Scattered moderate convection 
is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 25W-29W and also 
between 37W-42W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A broad area of weak high pressure is over the eastern Gulf as a 
1016 mb high center is analyzed near 27N83W. The pressure gradient 
between the high pressure and low pressure in the central United 
States is allowing for fresh to strong SE to S winds to exist over 
the NW Gulf while moderate to fresh E to SE winds are elsewhere,
except E of 86W, where light to gentle E to SE winds are present
S of 27N, and light to gentle winds S to SW winds are N of 27N. 
Latest buoy observations indicate mostly seas of 3 to 5 ft, 
except for higher seas of 4 to 6 ft over the west-central Gulf and
5 to 7 ft over the NW Gulf. Lower seas of 2 to 4 ft are over the 
eastern Gulf.

Dry sinking air aloft is suppressing any deep convection from 
developing over the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong S to SE winds will pulse over 
the northwestern Gulf of America into this evening as a strong 
pressure gradient prevails between high pressure over the eastern 
basin and low pressure in the central United States. Through this 
weekend, moderate to fresh SE winds and generally moderate seas 
are expected W of 90W, with gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and
slight seas expected east of 90W. Pulsing fresh to locally strong
E winds are likely each afternoon and evening N of the Yucatan 
Peninsula as a trough develops daily and drifts westward.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

The gradient between a broad area of high pressure over the 
central Atlantic and relatively lower pressures in the Caribbean 
basin and northern South America is maintaining moderate to fresh
trades across most of the basin, including the Gulf of Honduras.
Light to gentle NE to E winds are N of 18N and W of 75W, including
the Windward Passage. Both latest altimeter satellite data passes
and buoy observations reveal seas of 4 to 6 ft over most of the 
basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Slightly higher seas of 5 
to 7 ft are present from 11N to 15N between 68W and 80W. Lower 
seas of 2 to 4 ft are N of 18N W of 75W, including the Windward 
Passage.

Latest satellite imagery shows scattered to numerous showers and 
thunderstorms confined to the southwestern Caribbean S of 12N 
between the coast of Colombia and 81W. Scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms are S of 12N and W of 81W to along some 
of the coastal sections of Costa Rica and Panama. Similar activity 
is seen from 12N to 13N W of 81W to inland some areas of 
southern Honduras.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse in the
Gulf of Honduras each afternoon and night through this weekend. 
Elsewhere, a mixed NE and SE swell will support rough seas across 
the tropical Atlantic waters and passages into the eastern 
Caribbean through this weekend. Otherwise, pulsing moderate to 
fresh trade winds and moderate seas will prevail over the central 
and eastern Caribbean through Fri as the subtropical ridge 
prevails over the central Atlantic. The ridge will drift 
southeastward this weekend, supporting mainly moderate winds 
across the basin. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...Corrected

A surface trough extends from near 31N35W southwestward to 
28N43W and to 27N51W. Scattered showers are occurring within 90 
nm of the boundary mainly E of 45W while isolated showers are 
possible near the boundary W of 45W. Convergent southerly winds 
are helping to sustain scattered moderate convection to the SW 
of Bermuda, north of about 28N and between 64W and 75W. This 
activity is further being aided by a broad mid to upper-level 
trough that is shifting eastward across the western Atlantic. 
Abundant dry sinking air following in behind this trough is 
noted in water vapor imagery.

An area of numerous showers and thunderstorms is evident S of 
of 09N between 49W and 53W. A weak low-level disturbance is in 
this general area.

Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are 
evident near the surface trough, north of 25N between 35W and 
65W. A surface ridge extending west-southwestward from a 1024 mb 
high that is just NW of Madeira Island to beyond the central 
Bahamas. The gradient related to this feature is supporting 
light to gentle winds along with seas of 2 to 4 ft from 22N to 
28N between 35W and 65W. Farther W, gentle to moderate SE to SSW 
winds and 3 to 6 ft seas are present N of 22N and W of 65W. For 
the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 22N between 35W and the Lesser 
Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E winds with seas of 6 to 9 ft 
exist. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft in 
mixed moderate swells prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic W of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh E to SE 
winds will pulse south of 25N and east of 75W, including areas 
just offshore of the Greater Antilles, through Fri as the 
subtropical ridge prevails over the central Atlantic. The ridge 
will drift southeastward this weekend, supporting gentle to 
moderate trade winds across this region into next week. Elsewhere,
moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds will develop offshore of 
central and northern Florida tonight, and winds are expected to 
pulse through this weekend as troughing prevails over the Florida 
Peninsula. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trade winds and moderate 
seas are expected over the remainder of the waters. 

$$
Aguirre