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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



931 
AXNT20 KNHC 021030
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Thu Jul 02 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 16N southward, 
moving westward at 15 knots. Precipitation: the wave is moving 
through the area of nearby ITCZ precipitation. A great part of 
the wave is embedded in the dry Saharan Air Layer.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 60W from 19N southward, 
moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: isolated 
moderate from 15N to 20N between the tropical wave and 62W. 

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/70W from 18N 
southward, moving westward at 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated 
moderate is between 68W and 71W, from 18N southward. 

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W, from 19N southward, 
moving westward at 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate 
is from 14N northward from 80W westward. Widely scattered 
moderate to strong is inland in Central America, from Nicaragua 
to Honduras, El Salvador and in southern sections of Guatemala. 

A tropical wave is along 93W/94W, from 21N southward in the SW 
Gulf of Mexico, moving westward at 15 knots. Precipitation: 
isolated moderate is within 180 nm on either side of the 
tropical wave, from 21N southward. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea 
near 10N14W, to 07N22W and 07N37W and 05N40W. The ITCZ continues 
from 05N40W, to 03N45W, and 04N52W. Precipitation: numerous 
moderate to strong is along the coast of Africa, within 240 nm 
of the coast, from 06N to 11N. This precipitation is associated 
with the next tropical wave, which is forecast to arrive in the 
Atlantic Ocean later today. Isolated moderate to locally strong 
is elsewhere within 270 nm north of the monsoon trough from 20W 
to 30W; 240 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 
the 35W tropical wave and 50W; and from 08N southward between 
50W and 57W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers most of the Gulf of 
Mexico, from 90W westward. An upper level cyclonic circulation 
center is along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. 
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 
27N southward from 90W eastward.  A 1018 mb high pressure center 
is near 28N88W. High pressure and benign marine conditions will 
prevail across the region through Monday. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 60W from 19N southward, 
moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. The wave is just to the east 
of the Lesser Antilles islands. 

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/70W from 18N 
southward, moving westward at 15 knots.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W, from 19N southward, 
moving westward at 15 knots. An upper level cyclonic circulation 
center is along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. 
Upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the NW corner of the 
Caribbean Sea. 

The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N, between 74W in Colombia and 
beyond southern Costa Rica. Precipitation: widely scattered to 
scattered moderate to strong is from 07N to 11N between 70W in 
NW Venezuela and 76W in Colombia. Scattered moderate to strong 
also is from 11N to 13N between 81W and 83W.

High pressure to the north of the area will maintain fresh to 
occasionally strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean 
Sea through Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a cyclonic circulation center 
near 30N54W, to the NE Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: Isolated 
moderate to locally strong is from 17N northward between 42W and 
56W. 

A ridge will continue across the Atlantic Ocean through this 
weekend. A low pressure area, which is expected to develop east 
of Jacksonville Florida on Friday, will drift slowly eastward 
across the northern waters through Sunday night.  

$$
mt/dbm