AXNT20 KNHC 190551
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
151 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...
As of 0300 UTC, the main Gulf of Mexico cold front extends from
Slidell Louisiana to Grand Isle Louisiana to 23N92W to 19N95W,
moving inland and bending NW to 20N98W. A pre-frontal squall-line
extends from roughly 31N87W to 26N89W as of 0500 UTC. Latest
satellite and radar imagery show scattered to numerous moderate
convection within 60 nm either side of the squall line. Gale force
winds are possible today east of the cold front near the squall
line, as it moves into the NE Gulf. Additional gale force winds
are forecast in the NE Gulf this afternoon behind the cold front.
In the SW Gulf, winds to minimal gale force are possible for
another few hours south of 21N and west of 95W, but will end
before sunrise. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
Atlantic Gale Warning...
The cold front is expected to move off the Florida Peninsula
tonight. Gale force southerly winds are forecast ahead of the
front N of 28N between 70W and the east coast of northern Florida
along with numerous thunderstorms and seas of 10 to 16 feet. The
gales will begin near the coast of northern Florida this morning.
The gales will all move east of 76W Saturday morning. Please
refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone at
08N13W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 04S30W to
06S35W along the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection
is seen from 03S-00N between 37W-44W and from 02S-02N between
15W-22W. Elsewhere from 08S-02N between 15W and the coast of South
America, isolated to scattered showers are seen. Scattered to
numerous moderate to strong convection is from 03N-07N between
05W-12W, which is mainly over Liberia and the western Ivory
Coast, but extends over the Atlantic to 150 nm from the coast of
Liberia. Another area of scattered to numerous moderate to strong
convection is from 01S-04N between 00W-04W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
The cold front, squall line, convection and gales over the Gulf of
Mexico are described extensively in the section above. Elsewhere,
a secondary cold front extends from near 30N92.5W to 27N95W as of
0300 UTC. Fresh WNW winds are east of the secondary front, and
near gale NNW winds are west of the secondary front. The secondary
front will merge with the primary front later this morning.
Farther south, in the SE Bay of Campeche, isolated moderate
convection is occurring in association with a pre-frontal surface
trough, which is analyzed from 24N89.5W to 18N92W.
A significant cold front will move through the basin through this
evening with a strong line of convection out ahead of it. The
front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of
Campeche this afternoon, moving SE of the basin this evening.
See section above for details on the gale warning that is
currently in effect for portions of the Gulf of Mexico. High pres
will build in from the W in the wake of the front this weekend
with return flow expected by early next week.
A strong 500 mb ridge covers the area from the Bahamas to the
central and eastern Caribbean, west of 64W. Dry air covers much of
the eastern and central Caribbean, where only isolated showers
are found. Isolated to scattered showers are near Trinidad and in
the area over and south of Cuba. Latest ASCAT pass shows fresh
trade winds over much of the eastern and central Caribbean, with
strong trades south of 15N to the coast of Colombia between 72W-
77W. Moderate winds are over the western Caribbean except for the
Gulf of Honduras northward to the Yucatan Channel, where stronger
winds are occurring.
High pres NE of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds
in the S central Caribbean through Sun, diminishing Sun night
into early next week as the high weakens. Fresh to strong winds in
the Gulf of Honduras will diminish Fri afternoon as the pres
gradient weakens. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean by
Fri night, then weaken and become stationary from central Cuba to
the Gulf of Honduras Sat night. Fresh to locally strong northerly
winds are expected in the wake of the front Fri night and Sat,
highest near the Yucatan Channel.
A cold front extends from 31N44W to 27N50W to 25.5N56.5W, and
continues as a stationary front to 25N61W. A pre-frontal trough
extends from 29N45W to 21N53W. Scattered showers with embedded
isolated thunderstorms are near and within 90 nm SE of the front.
A secondary cold front to the north of the first front extends
from 31N49W to 30N58W, with isolated showers near and within 60 nm
ahead of the front. Farther east, scattered showers are northeast
of the Cape Verde Islands near the coasts of southern Western
Sahara and Mauritania. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the
eastern subtropical Atlantic due to a 1027 mb high near 34N25W.
See above for the expected gale-force winds east of Florida.
Winds and seas will increase over much of the NW waters today
ahead of a cold front expected to move off the Florida peninsula
tonight. The front will extend from 31N73W across the central
Bahamas to Cuba Sat evening, and from 31N69W to the SE Bahamas Sun
evening, then stall and dissipate Mon night through Tue night.
Gale force southerly winds are expected ahead of the front N of
28N between 70W and the east coast of northern Florida. Numerous
showers and scattered strong thunderstorms will accompany the
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