051 
AXNT20 KNHC 181704
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Jul 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An E Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W from 17N southward, and 
moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
06N-10N between 28W-34W.

A W Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W from 20N southward, 
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 16N-20W between 85W-89W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along coastal Senegal near
13N17W to 09N35W. The ITCZ continues westward from 09N35W to
coastal Guyana near 08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 08N-11N west of 52W and from 09N-11N between 18W-22W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak ridge of high pressure extends across the N Gulf this
morning, promoting moderate or weaker winds with seas 1-3 ft over
the whole Gulf. Isolated moderate convection is occurring north of
25N between 89W-96W in association with a trough extending from
29N92W over coastal Louisiana to 28N97W over coastal central 
Texas.

For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf waters this 
weekend into early next week producing gentle to moderate winds 
with slight to moderate seas. Pulsing fresh NE to E winds are 
expected each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula
as a trough develops daily and drifts westward.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the
region to a 1007 mb Colombia Low is forcing fresh to near gale
NE to E trades and 8-13 ft seas over the central and W Caribbean.
Elsewhere, the trades are moderate with seas 3-7 ft. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 16N-20W between 85W-89W in 
association with a tropical wave.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
locate N of area and the Colombian low will support fresh to 
strong winds over the south-central Caribbean through early next 
week. Near gale force winds and rough seas are expected offshore 
of northern Colombia through tonight. Fresh to locally strong NE 
winds and moderate to rough seas will prevail in the Windward 
Passage through Sat night. At the same time, expect fresh E winds 
in the Gulf of Honduras. Winds will diminish slightly Sun into 
next week as high pressure weakens over the western Atlantic. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Ridging extends across the subtropical N Atlantic from a 1029 mb
Azores High near 35N35W to a 1024 mb Bermuda High near 30N69W to
30N81W along coastal NE Florida. The weak pressure gradient from 
the ridge to lower pressure over the ITCZ/monsoon trough is
forcing generally gentle to moderate trades. The exceptions are
the fresh E trades just north of Hispaniola and E Cuba and fresh
to strong NE winds between the Canary Islands. Seas are 3-7 ft
over forecast waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will dominate the weather
pattern across the forecast region through early next week. A 
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow will prevail along with 
moderate seas. Fresh to locally strong winds and moderate seas are
expected north of Hispaniola to about 22N, including approaches 
to the Windward Passage, through Sat night. Winds will diminish 
slightly Sun into next week as high pressure weakens over the 
western Atlantic. 

$$
Landsea