000
AXNT20 KNHC 132108
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Mar 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W to 03N20W. 
Farther south, the ITCZ extends from 03N20W to 01S35W to 01S40W
to 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 00N to
02N between 20W and 25W, and along the equator between 30W and
35W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from Cape Sable in southwest Florida 
to near Cancun, Mexico. A few showers and thunderstorms are
active north of the front over the loop current near 23N85W.
Mostly fair skies, gentle breezes and slight seas are evident
elsewhere across the basin where weak high pressure persists.

For the forecast, the front will lift back to the N as a warm 
front on Sat as high pressure over the region begins to shift 
eastward. A strong cold front is expected to move into the NW 
Gulf late Sun night, quickly reach the southeastern Gulf by Mon 
night and slow down as it moves into the northwestern Caribbean 
by late Tue. Strong to near gale-force N winds will follow the 
front along with seas rapidly becoming rough. Gale-force winds 
will be possible in the NW Gulf, and offshore Tampico and 
Veracruz, Mexico on Sun night and Mon. The winds offshore 
Veracruz may attain brief gusts to storm-force. In the wake of 
the front, high pressure will build across the region into 
midweek. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A frontal boundary north of the Caribbean across the Bahamas is
breaking up the subtropical ridge and supporting mostly moderate
trade winds and 3-5 ft seas across the eastern and central 
Caribbean across the basin, except for fresh winds and 5-6 seas 
off the coast of Colombia. Light to gentle breezes and 1-2 ft
seas across the northwest Gulf. No significant convection is
evident over the basin at this time.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between north-central Atlantic
high pressure and relatively lower pressure in Colombia will
support pulsing fresh to strong trades across the central basin
through the morning hours. The high pressure will shift eastward
through Sat, with a brief weakening of the gradient allowing for 
fresh to strong trades to be confined to S of about 13N between 
72W and 76W. Afterward, new high pressure will build westward 
across the central Atlantic next week, with the resulting pressure
gradient leading to fresh to strong trades and building seas 
extending from the tropical Atlantic to the eastern and central 
Caribbean, including through passages.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A cold front extends from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas, then
is stationary to Biscayne Bay, Florida. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are active along the front over the Gulf Stream
between South Florida and the northern Bahamas. Fresh NE to E
winds and 6-9 ft seas are noted north of the front. A surface 
trough is along 60W from 20N to 30N. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are active east of this trough from 20N to 30N to 
50W. Gentle to moderate breezes and 4-6 ft are noted elsewhere
west of 50W, with NW swell. A broad ridge is in place farther 
east. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and 7-10 ft seas are noted
north of 25N and east of 40W, with moderate to fresh Ne to E
winds and 5-7 ft seas elsewhere east of 50W.

For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure will build 
west-southwestward toward the Bahamas through the weekend before 
it will retreat eastward early next week in response to the next 
cold front. This front will move off the U.S. southeastern coast 
Mon evening, then slow down and stall from near 31N72W to the 
central Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Tue. Fresh to strong 
southerly winds and rough seas will develop over the NW forecast 
waters starting Sun afternoon ahead of the front. These 
conditions will shift eastward to the north- central waters by 
late Tue. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds will follow 
the front through Tue To the S, rough seas produced by long- 
period E swell will impact the waters E of the Bahamas early next
week before slowly subsiding during midweek.

$$
Christensen