000
AXNT20 KNHC 031729
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Mar 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between 
strong high pressure over the northwestern Atlantic and low
pressure over Colombia will continue to support strong to gale- 
force NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas across portions
of the south-central and southwestern Caribbean Sea through at 
least Sat. Winds are expected to be strongest at night due to the
enhancement of nocturnal drainage flow.

Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A gale-force
low northeast of the area near Morocco continues to generate  
large NE swell with very rough seas to 13 ft. The swell has 
propagated well southwestward, with very rough seas currently 
over much of the tropical central and eastern Atlantic. These seas
will gradually subside from east to west. 

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more 
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N12W to 06N14W. The
ITCZ extends from that point to 01S30W to the coast of Brazil 
near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 01N to
06N between 10W and 15W and from 01N to 04N between 24W and 28W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak surface trough over the central Gulf is producing a small
area of disorganized convection from 24N to 27N between 87W and
89W. There is another weak trough over the Bay of Campeche, but
no significant shower activity is associated with that feature. 
Otherwise, generally quiet weather prevails across the remainder 
of the area. Winds and seas are moderate over portions of the 
eastern and central Gulf, and are lower over the western waters.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend a ridge southwestward
into the SE U.S. through the end of the week, with the resultant 
pressure gradient supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds 
across the Gulf, except in the Bay of Campeche where winds will be
mostly moderate NE to E. Fresh to strong winds are expected each 
night off the northern Yucatan Peninsula starting tonight. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning 
in the south-central Caribbean. 

No organized convection is ongoing across the area, though there
is a patch of some shower activity between Venezuela and
Hispaniola. Otherwise, surface ridging from strong high pressure 
centered N of the area is supporting fresh to near-gale winds 
over the eastern and central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh NE 
winds across the lee side of Cuba and the Windward Passage. Seas 
in the regions of highest winds are moderate, except for rough 
seas in portions of the south-central and SE Caribbean. 

For the forecast, a broad Atlantic high pressure system will 
maintain a ridge southwestward into Florida and the SE U.S. into 
the weekend to support fresh to near gale-force trades across the 
central and eastern Caribbean through Sat night. Winds off 
Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the nocturnal hours 
through the weekend. Fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward 
Passage and in the lee of Cuba will continue to pulse through the 
forecast period. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong winds 
will begin to pulse at night from Thu through Sat. Elsewhere, 
rough to very rough seas in easterly trade wind swell over the 
tropical N Atlantic will begin to slowly subside on Thu. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

Please see Special Features above for information on a significant
swell event.

Alhough high pressure dominates the subtropical and tropical 
Atlantic basin, there are a few smaller weather features to note. 
The tail end of a stalled front enters the area near 31N54W and 
extends to 24N67W. Moderate deep convection is present near the 
boundary. Just east of the front, a small trough is producing 
another area of shower activity from 22N to 25N between 60W and 
62W. Lastly, the tail end of a cold front extends from Morocoo
through 23N25N to 26N39W, though no significant convection is 
occurring near that boundary. As mentioned in the Special 
Features section, seas are elevated across much of the area due to
long period swell propogating from the gale-force low near 
Morocco.

For the forecast west of 55W, A stationary front extending from near 31N57W
southwestward to 23N70W will become diffuse by this evening. 
Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas N of 
the front will diminish tonight. However, rough seas will linger 
into Wed while expanding southeastward and merging with easterly 
trade wind swell S of 25N and E of the Bahamas. Otherwise, strong 
high pressure will become centered over the western N Atlantic 
through the next few days and produce fresh to strong E winds 
mostly south of 25N.

$$
Cangialosi