000
AXNT20 KNHC 102300
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Mar 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
western Atlantic ridge along 32N and the Colombian low will 
continue to support fresh to strong trades across the central 
part of the basin through Wed night. Winds offshore of northwestern
Colombia will pulse to gale- force during the night- time hours 
tonight. Seas of 8-12 ft are expected with these strongest winds.
Winds offshore of northwest Colombia will again increase on Wed
night, but are expected to remain just below gale-force. Please 
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gale Warning E of 35W: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for
the forecast zones of Agadir and Tarfaya. The forecast calls for 
northerly gales with severe gusts through 11/1200 UTC at least. 
Very rough seas to around 4.5 m are likely with these winds. 
Please refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on 
their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa
near 10.5N14.5W, then continues SW to near 02N20W. The ITCZ 
extends from 02N20W to 01.5S32W to the coast of Brazil near 
02.5S44.5W. Scattered moderate convection is about the trough and
ITCZ, and noted from S of 06N between 11W and 51W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic westward along
32N and across the northern Gulf to SE Texas. This pattern is 
supporting moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds and 3-6 ft 
seas across the western Gulf, and gentle to moderate E to SE 
breezes with 1-3 ft seas over the eastern Gulf. SKies are
generally fair to partly cloudy with no significant precipitation
detected.

For the forecast, a broad surface ridge extending across the
northern basin will prevail through Wed night. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over Mexico will 
support mainly moderate to fresh E to SE winds basin-wide, pulsing
to fresh and strong near the northern Yucatan and the western 
Gulf in the evenings, and slightly weaker winds overall in the 
northeastern Gulf. Seas will be slight to moderate through Wed. A 
cold front will sink into the northwestern Gulf beginning Wed 
night, moving over the SE portion of the basin through Fri night
and dissipating. In the wake of the front, winds will increase to
fresh to strong speeds and seas will build to 11 ft through Thu 
night, with conditions improving thereafter as ridging gradually 
rebuilds across the basin. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning
in effect for the south-central Caribbean. 

Fresh to strong easterly trade winds persist across east and
central portions of the Caribbean this evening. Moderate to 
locally fresh trade winds are evident elsewhere. Seas are 7-9 ft 
off of Colombia, and 5-8 ft elsewhere, except 3-4 over the 
northwest Caribbean. A sharp upper trough extending from the Turks
and Caicos Islands to Costa Rica is supporting scattered showers 
and thunderstorms from Jamaica southward to 14N.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a Bermuda High and
the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades across the 
eastern basin through tonight, and the central basin through Wed 
night. Winds offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-
force during the night-time hours tonight and to near-gale on Wed
night. Fresh to strong winds will linger in the S-central 
Caribbean into the upcoming weekend. Fresh to locally strong NE to
E winds will pulse near the Windward Passage and south of Haiti 
through Thu. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Honduras and Lee of Cuba through Wed night. Large easterly trade- 
wind swell from the tropical Atlantic will maintain rough seas 
near the Lesser Antilles through early Thu. Marine conditions will
improve slightly but temporarily by the end of the week as the 
pressure gradient weakens due to a weak cold front approaching the
NW Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A surface ridge extends from 1028 mb high pressure centered east
of Bermuda to the coasts of northeast Florida and Georgia. This 
pattern is supporting moderate to fresh E winds and 6-9 ft seas 
south of 25N and west of 55W, and gentle breezes and 4-6 ft seas 
elsewhere. Farther east, a surface trough is along roughly 44W 
from 20N to 30N, associated with an upper low over that area. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the upper low 
and surface trough are active from 22N to 28N between 36W and 
42W. Divergent flow aloft is also supporting scattered showers 
and thunderstorms from 14N to 21N between 18W and 30W. Fresh to 
strong NE to E winds and 7-11 ft seas prevail east of the trough
to Africa, north of 20N. Gentle to moderate breezes and 5 to 7 ft
seas are noted elsewhere across the basin east of 60W, except for
fresh trade winds and seas to 9 ft over the tropical Atlantic 
west of 50W.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds will
prevail south of 25N through Wed, increasing to strong winds north
of Hispaniola into the Windward passage at times. Rough seas will
prevail within these winds and east of the central and southeast 
Bahamas. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected elsewhere 
across the region. Southerly fresh to strong winds may develop off
northern Florida Wed night ahead of a cold front that will move 
offshore Thu night. Expect fresh to strong winds and building 
seas behind the front, weakening and slowing from near Bermuda to
the northern Bahamas by Fri. High pressure ridging will build 
across the basin for the end of the week into the weekend.

$$
Stripling