000
AXNT20 KNHC 170259
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Feb 17 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0255 UTC. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 03N21W.
The ITCZ extends from 03N21W to 01S35W and to 00N50W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is present within 120 nm on
both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1020 mb high pressure system dominates the Gulf waters,
supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.
Generally dry conditions are found across the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure is building across the area in the wake
of the recent cold front maintaining rather tranquil conditions.
Moderate north to northeast winds over the eastern Gulf south of 
27N will diminish early on Tue. The high pressure will slide 
eastward through Wed night in response to a deepening low pressure
system in the upper Midwest region that will be moving eastward. 
As this happens, the pressure gradient will tighten over the 
western half of the Gulf starting on Tue leading to moderate to 
fresh southerly winds in that part of the Gulf. These winds expand
to the western part of E Gulf Thu through late Fri. The low 
pressure will pull a cold front into the NW Gulf on Sat. Light to 
gentle winds are expected behind the front initially before 
becoming fresh to strong northerly winds Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A surface trough extends from central Cuba to 18N83W and isolated
showers are noted near this boundary. The remainder of the Caribbean
is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge positioned over the 
central Atlantic. This high pressure supports fresh to strong 
easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft in the south-central 
Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and 
moderate seas are noted in the north-central and eastern 
Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas 
prevail.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong northeast to east winds
will continue offshore Colombia through the forecast period. 
These winds are expected to expand in coverage starting late on 
Thu, with the possibly of near gale-force speeds Fri and Sat night
as Atlantic ridging noses westward tightening the pressure 
gradient. Fresh northeast winds will develop in the Windward 
Passage and in the lee side of Cuba from Tue through Wed evening. 
Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will begin to pulse in the
Gulf of Honduras Wed evening and continue through the rest of the
forecast period, and trades elsewhere will generally remain at 
moderate to fresh during this same time. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from just west of Bermuda to the central
Bahamas and western Cuba. A surface trough is noted ahead of the
front. Scattered showers to isolated thunderstorms are occurring
ahead of the front to 64W and north of 23N. Fresh to strong winds
are found north of 27N and west of 57W. Seas in these waters are 
6-10 ft. A broad subtropical ridge dominates the rest of the 
tropical Atlantic, sustaining moderate to fresh easterly trade 
winds and moderate to rough seas south of 20N and west of 25W. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are 
prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will reach
from near 31N61W to 26N69W and stationary to South Florida early 
on Tue. The cold front portion will continue eastward across the 
northern and central offshore waters through Tue evening passing E
of 55W by late Tue night. Fresh to strong south to southwest 
winds ahead of the front N of 28N will diminish to fresh speeds as
the front crosses 55W. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds 
behind the front will become north to northeast fresh winds early 
on Tue. Elsewhere, long-period northerly swell will continue to 
support rough seas over the waters E and NE of the Bahamas through
Thu night. Looking ahead, fresh southwest winds are expected to 
develop over the far NW part of the area beginning Sat in advance 
of the next cold front.

$$
Delgado