000
AXNT20 KNHC 201021
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Feb 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits the African continent near 12N16W and
extends to near 03.5N20W. The ITCZ extends from 03.5N20W to 
02N30W and to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is observed south of 04N and between 
12W and 48W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The pressure gradient between a 1019 mb high pressure system
centered SE of Bermuda and lower pressures in Mexico and Texas 
support moderate to fresh southerly winds over much of the basin. 
However, a tighter gradient is noted north of the Yucatan 
peninsula resulting in fresh to strong SE winds. Seas north of 
Yucatan are 5-7 ft, while slight to moderate are present 
elsewhere.

The southerly wind flow in the western Gulf waters is lifting 
smoke from agricultural fires in SE Mexico northward, producing
hazy skies W of 92W. The warmer southerly wind flow is also moving
across the cooler coastal waters all across the Gulf coast states,
producing numerous areas of dense fog with low visibilities, from
the NE Mexican coast to the Florida Big Bend. Dense Fog 
Advisories are in effect for these coastal waters.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds and 
moderate seas are expected over the central and western Gulf today
before Atlantic high pressure shifts E. Locally strong E to SE 
winds will pulse in the south- central basin, north of the Yucatan
Peninsula, each afternoon and night through Sat as a trough 
develops daily over the region. A strong cold front will move into
the northern Gulf Sat evening and shift across the basin through 
early Mon. Gale force winds and very rough seas are expected 
offshore of Veracruz Sun and Sun night. Widespread fresh to strong
N to NE winds and rough seas are expected elsewhere in the wake 
of the front. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

An expansive subtropical ridge located north of the basin along
about 28N supports strong to near gale-force easterly winds and 
rough seas in the south-central Caribbean. Recent satellite 
scatterometer data showed that the strongest winds are present 
north of Colombia, where altimeter data shows seas around 10 ft. 
Fresh to strong E-SE winds and seas of 5-7 ft are found in the 
Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate 
seas are occurring in the north- central and eastern Caribbean and
much of the NW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight seas 
are evident in the lee of Cuba and between Cuba and Jamaica. 
Scattered showers are seen along and within 45 nm of the coasts 
of Costa Rica and western Panama.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high 
pressure to the north, along 28N, and the Colombian low, will 
support fresh to strong trade winds in the south- central 
Caribbean through this weekend. Winds may reach near- gale force 
each night offshore of northern Colombia, with rough seas expected
within and to the west of these winds. Elsewhere, fresh to strong
E to SE winds and occasionally rough seas will pulse in the 
eastern Gulf of Honduras into early Sun. Moderate to occasionally 
fresh trade winds are expected over the rest of the Caribbean 
basin through the forecast period. Rough seas will develop E of 
the Lesser Antilles today into the weekend as N swell progresses 
through the central tropical Atlantic. Looking ahead, a strong 
cold front will move through the Gulf of America this weekend and 
move into the NW Caribbean early Mon, reaching from western Haiti 
to near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border Tue morning.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The SW North Atlantic, west of 50W, is under the influence of a
broad subtropical ridge, centered on 1019 mb high pressure near
28N60W. This pattern is maintaining moderate or weaker winds
across most of that area, except for isolated areas of fresh trade
winds S of 10N between 50W and 60W. Seas of 6-9 ft in NW to N
swell are found between 55W and 65W, while 3-7 ft are noted west 
of 65W. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and
a cold front north of the area sustain moderate to fresh westerly
winds and rough seas to 11 ft north of 30N and between 50W and 
57W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas 
to 8 ft are evident south of 20N and west of 35W. 

A dissipating stationary front extends from 31N39W to 24N69W.
Moderate to fresh SW winds and rough seas are found ahead of the
front to 35W and north of 28N. Decaying NW swell is also producing
rough seas in the central Atlantic between 25W and 55W and north 
of 20N. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong NE winds and 
rough seas are occurring east of 25N and north of 22N. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in N swell occurring 
east of 66W will subside from west to east through Sat. Elsewhere,
1019 mb high pressure located SE of Bermuda will shift slowly E 
through the weekend, producing moderate to locally fresh S to SW 
winds offshore of northern Florida through Sun morning. Moderate 
or weaker winds are expected elsewhere through Sat. A strong cold 
front will push offshore of the southeastern U.S. on Sun, with 
strong NW winds and rapidly building seas behind the front through
early next week. The front is expected to reach from near Bermuda
to central Cuba Mon morning, and from 31N60W to NW Haiti Tue 
morning.

$$
Stripling