000
AXNT20 KNHC 310554
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Mar 31 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warning and Large Swell: 
A cold front extends southwestward from the north-central 
Atlantic across 31N46W to near 30N48W, then continues as a 
stationary front to 23N62W. A shear line curves westward from 
23N62W to over the central Bahamas. Latest satellite scatterometer
data reveal near- gale to gale-force NE winds north of this 
boundary from 26N to 30N between 50W and 58W. These winds are 
expected to decrease and become strong to near gale-force after 
midnight tonight as this frontal boundary gradually weakens. 
Large, long-period northerly swell is maintaining seas at 12 to 18
ft up to 450 nm northwest of this boundary. This northerly swell 
will steadily decline over the next couple of days, allowing seas 
to gradually subside, possibly dropping below 12 ft on Wed 
evening.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters 
Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the 
following websites: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Gambia, 
then reaches southwestward to near 01N28W. An ITCZ continues  
from 01N28W across 00N34W to near Sao Luis, Brazil. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is noted south of the monsoon trough 
from 00N to 06N between 10W and 21W, and near the ITCZ and rest of
the monsoon trough from 02S to 04N between 21W and 31W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge extends southwestward from the Florida Big Bend
area to near Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh E winds and seas
at 4 to 6 ft are present across the Florida Straits, north of the
Yucatan Peninsula and at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of
the Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will dominate the Gulf most of
this week. Expect moderate to fresh E to SE winds for the eastern
Gulf through Sat night. Over the western Gulf, moderate to fresh 
SE winds are forecast, except for locally strong E to SE winds off
the northern Yucatan Peninsula at night. Slight to moderate seas
will prevail for the entire Gulf into the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A robust trade-wind regime continues across much of the Caribbean
Sea. Fresh to strong NE winds are seen at the south-central basin,
in the lee of Cuba and the Dominican Republic, and near the
Windward Passage. Seas range from 8 to 10 ft at the south-central
basin, 7 to 9 ft near the Windward Passage, and 4 to 6 ft in the
lee of Cuba and the Dominican Republic. Mainly moderate NE to E
winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean 
Sea.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to 
strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia through Sat night, 
pulsing to near gale-force at night through midweek. This pattern
will also support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee side of 
Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Thu 
night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section for more information about a
gale warning, and large swell. 

A cold front extends southwestward from the north-central 
Atlantic across 31N46W to near 30N48W, then continues as a 
stationary front to 23N62W. A shear line curves westward from 
23N62W to over the central Bahamas. Scattered showers are found
near and up to 220 nm northwest of the fronts. Patchy showers are
noted near and up to 100 nm north of the shear line. A pre-frontal
trough is triggering similar conditions north of 25N between 44W
and 48W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Outside the gale winds and very rough seas mentioned in the
Special Features section, fresh to strong NE winds and 8 to 11 ft
seas are evident behind the frontal boundary and shear line,
except moderate to fresh E to SE winds with 6 to 8 ft north of 27N
between 75W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. Farther
southeast, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 7 to 11 ft
in large N swell exist from 18N to the stationary front between
57W and the southeast Bahamas. For the remainder of the Atlantic
west of 35W, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 4 to 7 ft seas
prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold/stationary 
front will dissipate on Tue. Strong high pressure building in the
wake of the front should keep fresh to strong NE to E winds, and 
rough to very rough seas across most of the western Atlantic for 
the second half of the week. 
 
$$

Chan