000
AXNT20 KNHC 012057
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Mar 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure N of the area and the Colombian low will support strong 
to near gale- force easterly trade winds and rough seas across the
south- central Caribbean. Winds will pulse to gale force over 
these waters at night with the added component of nocturnal 
drainage flow. Locally very rough seas are expected with these 
winds.

Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A previous
gale force wind event off the Canary Islands generated a large NE
swell with very rough seas greater than 12 ft. The swell has 
propagated from this source region, with these very rough seas 
currently over the waters from 10N to 20N between 33W and 50W. 
The seas, currently peaking near 14 ft, are gradually subsiding 
and will decrease below 12 ft by Tue. 

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more 
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa
near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 03N19W. The ITCZ 
extends from 03N19W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered
to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted S of 06N
between 10W and 40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak frontal boundary extends from the Florida Keys westward to
25N84W and to near 24N87W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
along and near the boundary. Winds over the Gulf are moderate or
weaker, with slight to moderate seas.  

For the forecast, the frontal boundary will slowly move 
southeastward and exit the basin tonight while becoming diffuse. 
Afterward, an expansive area of strong high pressure will build 
west- southwestward from the central N Atlantic over the area 
starting tonight and hold through the upcoming week. Its related 
pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh east to southeast
winds across the Gulf. Locally strong winds will occur at night 
off the northern Yucatan Peninsula starting Tue. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Please see Special Features section above for pulsing gales in the
south central Caribbean. 

A broad ridge of high pressure extends from a 1033 mb high center
over the central Atlantic to the western Atlantic waters N of the
area. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and
the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the
south central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds elsewhere E
of 80W. Light to gentle winds are over the western Caribbean. Seas
are in the 7-10 ft range over the south central Caribbean, and 
6-8 ft elsewhere E of 80W. W of 80W, seas are in the 2-4 ft range.


For the forecast, the pressure gradient over the area will 
support fresh to near gale- force trades and moderate to rough 
seas across the central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast
period. Winds will pulse to gale- force at night over these waters
through the upcoming week. Fresh to strong northeast winds will 
begin in the Windward Passage late Mon night. Fresh to strong east
winds will begin to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras starting Wed 
night. Rough seas in mixed swell will prevail in the tropical N 
Atlantic through the forecast period, with seas to 12 ft reaching 
55W Mon. These seas will subside to just below 12 ft on Wed, then 
continue to slowly subside through the rest of the forecast 
period. Elsewhere, little change is expected, with moderate to 
fresh trades continuing through the period. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

Please see Special Features above for more on significant swell. 

A weak frontal boundary extends southwestward from near 31N70W to
the NW Bahamas and to the Florida Keys while a trough ahead of it
extends from 28N72W to the southeastern Bahamas and to near 
eastern Cuba. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are 
evident within 60 nm northwest of the frontal boundary and within 
30 nm southeast of the boundary N of 27N. To the east, numerous 
showers and thunderstorms are located north of 26N and east of the
frontal boundary and trough to a line from 31N64W to 26N70W.
Farther east, high pressure dominates, anchored by a 1033 mb high
centered near 32N38W. The pressure gradient between this high
center and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is
supporting fresh to trong trades over much of the waters S of 27N
and E of 55W. Rough to very rough seas are over these waters.
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas.  

For the forecast west of 55W, the frontal boundary will weaken 
as it slowly moves southeastward reaching from near 31N67W to 
28N70W and stationary front to the Florida Keys tonight, and from 
near 31N62W to the central Bahamas early on Mon as it becomes 
diffuse. Elsewhere, high pressure over the central Atlantic 
continues to maintain control over much of the western Atlantic 
while rough seas prevail over the southeastern waters. Another 
cold front is expected to enter the northern waters during the 
early part of the week and gradually shift southeastward and 
weaken. Fresh to near gale-force easterly winds and rough to very 
rough seas, peaking to around 13 ft, are forecast behind the front
Mon through late Tue night north of 27N. An expansive area of 
strong high pressure will build across the north-central Atlantic 
by the middle of the upcoming week resulting in moderate to fresh 
winds and rough seas over much of the basin. 

$$
AL