000 AXNT20 KNHC 051036 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Jul 5 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Three is centered near 30.8N 78.6W at 05/0900 UTC or 140 nm SSE of Charleston South Carolina, moving NNE at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Bands of showers, with embedded thunderstoms, associated with the cyclonic circulation of T.D. Three are affecting the waters N of 24N and W of 74W, including the NW Bahamas and the Florida Keys. A slow motion towards the north-northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a turn northward and then northeastward by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move near or over the coast of South Carolina on Sunday morning. Gradual strengthening is expected, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas today through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. A storm surge of 1 to 2 ft above ground level could occur along the coast in the tropical storm watch area in areas of onshore flow. The depression is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to much of the southeastern United States coastline north of northeastern Florida during the next couple of days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Three NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gale Warning E of 35W: A tight pressure gradient between a 1036 mb high pressure system located NE of the Azores and lower pressures in NW Africa will continue to support gale-force northeast winds, with severe gusts, close and between the Canary Islands until at least 06/12 UTC according to Meteo France. The most recent scatterometer pass confirmed the presence of the gale force winds, particularly between islands. Moderate to rough seas are within these winds, peaking around 10 ft. Mariners are also advised that visibility may be reduced to moderate or poor due to sand haze, especially in the far E part. For more details, please visit the Meteo France High Seas Forecast listed on the website https://wwmiws.wmo.int ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 30W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. This wave remains surrounded by a dry and stable atmospheric environment. A few showers are evident near the southern portion of the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W, south of 16N, moving westward at around 10 kt. A dry and stable atmospheric environment also surrounds this wave. Only isolated showers are near its southern part. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean. Its axis is along 69W/70W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms area near the wave axis. This system appears to enhance convection in the vicinity of the ABC Islands. A tropical wave is over northern Central America. Its axis is along 87W, S of 18N and extends into the far eastern Pacific. The wave is enhancing some convective activity across the area. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 11N30W and to 07N46W. The ITCZ extends from 07N46W to the coast of Guyana near 07N59W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N E of 20W to the coast of W Africa. Scattered moderate convection is observed elsewhere from 06N to 10N between 12W and 25W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough trough extends across central Florida and the NE Gulf from T.D. Three located off NE Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident over parts of Florida and the NE Gulf. Similar convective activity is also seen over the north-central Gulf and SE Louisiana. A 1017 mb high pressure is analyzed near 26N91W. This weather pattern is supporting moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the NW Gulf, and moderate to locally fresh NE winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas of 3 ft or less are across the basin, except for slightly higher seas of 3 to 4 ft over the NW Gulf. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms. For the forecast, a surface trough will persist across the NE Gulf through the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop along this trough over the waters near Florida. Weak high pressure will then prevail into early next week. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening through early next week as a trough develops inland daily and then drifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean Sea. Please see the Tropical Wave section for more details. The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and low pressure in Colombia is resulting in fresh to strong trades over most of the central part of the basin as indicated by recent scatterometer satellite data. Seas over these waters are 6 to 9 ft. Moderate trades are elsewhere east of about 80W along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. Aside from the convection associated with the passing tropical waves, generally dry conditions are noted over the tropical waters, with low-topped trade wind showers moving westward across the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean while gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere, with the exception of moderate to fresh E winds in the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Wed night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Three and a Gale Warning that is in effect E of 35W. ALso, two tropical waves are moving across the tropical Atlantic. Please see the Tropical Wave section for more information. Aside from T.D. Three, a surface trough is centered north of Hispaniola, and runs from 28N65W to 22N70W. An area of showers with embedded thunderstorms is associated with this trough. This feature is under a broad upper-level trough that is helping to induce this convective activity. The remainder of the Atlantic domain is under the influence of a strong 1035 mb high pressure system located NE of the Azores. The present pressure gradient between this high and lower pressures over the NW Africa is allowing for fresh to strong northeast winds north of about 22N and east of 32W, including between the Canary Islands, where winds are reaching gale force, and along coastal Western Sahara. Rough seas are associated with these winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Depression Three will strengthen to a tropical storm near 31.5N 78.8W this afternoon, move to 32.6N 79.2W Sun morning, inland to 33.7N 79.4W Sun afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 34.8N 78.8W Mon morning, inland to 36.3N 77.1W Mon afternoon, and dissipate Tue morning. The main impacts of T.D. Three will remain north of the forecast area. High pressure will prevail elsewhere. This pattern will support generally gentle to moderate winds except for moderate to fresh winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola through Mon. $$ GR
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Page last modified: Saturday, 05-Jul-2025 16:00:17 UTC