000
AXNT20 KNHC 011042
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Aug 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1040 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis near 55W, and
moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present
from 16N to 21N between 48W and 63W.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis near 66W
south of 20N, moving west at 10-15 kt. There is no deep convection
associated with this wave at this time.  

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis near 81W
south of 20N, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring over the Costa Rica offshore waters and SE
Nicaragua adjacent waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and continues
along 13N21W to 08N29W. The ITCZ begins near 08N29W and continues
to 06N43W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N to 13N 
between 14W and 34W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough continues to generate scattered heavy showers 
and isolated strong thunderstorms in the Bay of Campeche this
morning. The remainder basin is under the influence of a 1019 mb
high pressure located near 28N93W, which is supporting light to
gentle variable winds and slight seas basin-wide. Locally higher
winds and seas are likely today in the Bay of Campeche due to the
passage of the surface trough.

For the forecast, fairly weak high pressure will dominate the 
basin through the forecast period, supporting mostly gentle to 
moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas. Scattered showers 
and thunderstorms are expected to increase along and just inland 
the NE Gulf coast this weekend as a weak low pressure along a 
weakening cold front stalls across northern Florida. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Atlantic subtropical ridge and the passage of two tropical
waves across the region continue to modulate the winds and seas. 
Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present at 
the central basin while moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas
are ongoing in the E basin. Moderate or weaker NE to E winds 
prevail over the NW Caribbean with slight seas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high 
pressure and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to allow 
for fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the central 
Caribbean through Tue night. The strongest winds will occur off 
the coast of Colombia, ocassionally pulsing to near gale-force at 
night. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail over the E Caribbean 
while moderate or weaker winds are forecast for the NW Caribbean. 
A tropical wave accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms,
and likely gusty winds, is expected to move through the tropical 
Atlantic waters today, the eastern and central Caribbean Sat and 
Sat night, and across the western Caribbean late Sun into Mon. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical Atlantic waters are under the influence of a broad
surface ridge that extends from a 1028 mb high located near
31N41W. With the passage of two tropical waves, one entering the
tropical Atlantic today and another one moving across the eastern
basin, moderate to fresh E to SE winds will prevail over the
waters S of 25N between 55W and the Great Bahama Bank. Seas are
moderate to rough over these waters while slight to moderate seas
are elsewhere under moderate or weaker winds.  

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the 
weather pattern through the period, supporting mostly gentle to 
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas over the region N of 
25N. The northern portion of a tropical wave is forecast to bring 
moderate to fresh east to southeast winds and seas to 8 ft north 
of the Leeward Islands today through Sat night, then to the waters
north of Hispaniola and east of the southern Bahamas through 
early next week.

$$
Ramos