511 
AXNT20 KNHC 070444
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Jun 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0443 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 42.5W from 
01.5N to 13N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 120 nm either side of the wave from 03N to 
08N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16.5W and 
continues southwestward to 08N23W. The ITCZ extends from 08N23W 
to 06N39W and then from 06N44.5W to 06N51W. Scattered moderate 
convection is seen along the Monsoon trough/ITCZ east of 39W. 
Numerous moderate convection is depicted along the ITCZ, west of 
44W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Atlantic high pressure extend its ridge westward to near 90W. The
associated gradient is allowing for gentle to moderate southeast 
winds across the basin, except for light winds over the NE Gulf 
and fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds along the 
northern Yucatan Peninsula and over the eastern Bay of Campeche. 
Seas are in the range of 2 to 4 ft, except for slightly higher 
seas of 3 to 5 ft over the west-central Gulf and in the Bay of 
Campeche. 

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend its ridge 
into the eastern Gulf through Sun, then build modestly westward 
into the central Gulf through the middle of next week. Moderate to
fresh E to NE winds are expected each afternoon and evening north
of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as 
a trough develops daily and moves westward. Expect moderate to 
fresh SE winds across the western and south-central Gulf through 
Mon between a trough over northern Mexico and Atlantic high 
pressure. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and 
relatively lower pressures over south America is supporting fresh
to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean, and the Gulf 
of Honduras, moderate to fresh prevail elsewhere. Seas across the
basin are 4 to 8 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
associated with the eastern portion of the Pacific monsoon trough
are found across the SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, weak high pressure N of the region and centered
NW of Bermuda will shift NE and into the N central Atlantic 
through the weekend. The Atlantic ridge will then build SW into 
the Bahamas and S Florida late Sat through the middle of next 
week. This pattern will lead to fresh to strong trades and 
moderate to rough seas across most of the central basin and Gulf 
of Honduras through Sat, then increase and spread to across most 
of the basin Sat night through the middle of next week, except in 
the SW Caribbean where winds will be weaker. Seas will build to 
rough with the increasing winds, as well as in the Tropical N 
Atlantic by early next week. 

Note: The potential for significant rain exist this weekend, into
early next week, across eastern Nicaragua and possibly into 
northeast Honduras as unsettled weather is forecast across the 
area. Uncertainty in terms of rainfall amounts is high at this 
time. Please, refer to your local meteorological office for more 
details. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is analyzed over the basin. Refer to the section
above for details.

A cold front extends to near 29N76W from a low east of the Outer 
Banks of North Carolina. Isolated showers are found along the 
front north of 29.5N. Moderate to locally fresh southwest winds 
and moderate seas are evident north of 29N between 71W and 77W. 
Farther east, a weakening stationary front enters the basin 
through 31N61W and continues southwestward to near 28N64W. A 
trough then extends from 28N64W to near 24N69.5W. 

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of 
a 1031 mb high pressure north of the area. The associated 
gradient is allowing for moderate to fresh trades south of 23N 
between 35W and 60W. Seas of 4-8 ft are over these same waters. 
Similar winds and seas are evident east of 35W and from 12N and 
25N. Fresh to locally strong north winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft 
are noted north of 29N and east of 14W. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weakening stationary front SE of 
Bermuda will drift northward and dissipate overnight. Weak high 
pressure NW of the front will shift NE and into the central 
Atlantic through Sat. Atlantic high pressure will then build 
modestly W-SW into the Bahamas and S Florida Sun through Tue, then
weaken slightly by mid-week. Expect fresh to strong winds to 
pulse each afternoon and evening offshore of Hispaniola early next
week, with pulsing moderate to fresh winds off NE Florida and 
elsewhere south of 22N. 

$$
KRV