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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 181038

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
638 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1020 UTC.


Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...
A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf this morning. A
brief period of gales is likely late this afternoon through this
evening south of 21N and west of 95W. Please refer to the Atlantic
High Seas Forecast at website
for more details.

Atlantic Gale Warning...
A cold front is expected to move off the Florida Peninsula Fri
night. Gale force southerly winds are forecast ahead of the front
N of 27N by Friday afternoon along with numerous thunderstorms. 
Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast at website for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone at 
08N13W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 01S18W to
03S24W to the coast of Brazil near 05S37W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 09S-03N between 19W-29W, and from 03S-02N
between 00W-07W.


Surface ridging is over the eastern Gulf. A low pressure system 
over the Southern Plains and northern Mexico is moving east. The 
pressure gradient is increasing over the western Gulf, where the 
latest ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong SE winds, as of 18/0320 
UTC. Some reduced visibility due to smoke is possible over the W 
Gulf south of 29N and west of 90W. Scattered showers are over the
NW Gulf north of 26N and west of 92W. An area of numerous 
moderate convection covers east Texas. These thunderstorms have 
reached the Texas Gulf Coast and will move out over the western 
Gulf of Mexico early this morning.

A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf later this morning.
Strong to near gale force winds are expected on both sides of the
front across much of the basin. Strong to severe thunderstorms 
are possible at times in the northern Gulf zones ahead of and 
along with the front today through Friday as it moves from west to
east. Gusts to gale force are likely in some of these
thunderstorms. The front will reach from SW Louisiana to S Texas 
this evening, from Mobile Alabama to the central Bay of Campeche 
Fri morning, and move SE of the area Fri night. Numerous showers 
and scattered thunderstorms will accompany the cold front. High 
pres will build in from the W in the wake of the front this 
weekend with return flow expected by early next week.


The weather is quiet with dry air and subsidence noted over the
basin, due to mid-level ridging. The ASCAT pass from Wednesday
evening shows fresh trades in the eastern and central Caribbean, 
with strong to locally near gale near the coast of Colombia. 
Gentle to moderate winds are over the western Caribbean, except 
for fresh in the Gulf of Honduras.

High pres NE of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds
in the S central Caribbean the next several days. Fresh to strong
winds will develop in the Gulf of Honduras today. A cold front 
will move into the NW Caribbean Fri night, then weaken and become 
stationary from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sat night. 
Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are expected in the wake 
of the front Fri night and Sat. 


A cold front extends from 31N50W to 27.5N59W, and continues as a
stationary front to 27N67W. Scattered moderate convection is 
occurring within 120 nm of the front east of 61W. No strong winds
or high seas are associated with this front. A 1023 mb high is 
over the eastern Atlantic near 33N27W. Farther east, a dissipating
cold front extends off the coast of Western Sahara and into the
Atlantic from 25N15W to 23N22W. No significant convection is seen
with this front.

Winds and seas will increase over much of the NW waters tonight 
and Fri ahead of a cold front expected to move off the Florida 
peninsula Fri night. The front will extend from 31N73W across the 
central Bahamas to Cuba Sat evening, and from 31N69W to the SE 
Bahamas Sun evening, then stall and dissipate by Mon night. Gale 
force southerly winds are expected ahead of the front N of 27N. 
Numerous showers and scattered strong thunderstorms will accompany
the front.

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