AXNT20 KNHC 211118
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
618 AM EST Thu Feb 21 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...
A tightening pressure gradient between high pressure building
southward over the western Atlantic and lower pressures inland
over Colombia will result in winds increasing to gale force near
the coast of Colombia at night. The gale is presently ongoing
and will end on 21/1200 UTC. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.
...Atlantic Gale Warning...
A cold front is forecast in 48 hours over the central Atlantic
from 31N40W to 29N65W. A gale is forecast N of 27N E of 40W with
seas 16 to 21 ft.
The monsoon trough extends from western Africa near 07N12W to
01N22W. The ITCZ continues from this point to 02S30W to the coast
of South America near 04S38W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 03S to 05N between 06W and 28W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A stationary front extends from SE Louisiana near 29N91W to 27N95W
to the Bay of Campeche near 18N95W. Northerly winds of 10 to 20
kt and scattered showers are occurring behind the front. Mainly
10 to 20 kt southeasterly winds cover the remainder of the Gulf.
Overcast low stratus and patchy fog is W of the front, as well as
N of 29N E of front.
The front will lift back north as a warm front today. Another cold
front will move off the Texas coast late Sat, reach from the
Florida Big Bend to the SW Gulf by Sun evening and from near SW
Florida to near 25N89W to the SW Gulf Mon.
Generally fair weather prevails across the Caribbean region
supported by widespread dry air in the mid- and upper-levels of
the atmosphere. Satellite images do show patches of low clouds and
perhaps embedded isolated showers moving within the trade wind
flow. Fresh to strong trade winds are over the central Caribbean,
while mainly moderate to fresh trade winds cover the remainder of
High pressure north of the region will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds in mainly the central Caribbean Sea, and north of
Honduras through the next several days. Gale force winds will
pulse overnight near the coast of Colombia. Long period north to
northeast swell will propagate through the Atlantic waters to the
east of the Lesser Antilles beginning late today before
dissipating Sun through Mon night.
The most notable feature over the subtropical Atlantic is a cold
front that enters the discussion area near 31N27W and extends to
21N50W to 21N60W to 23N68W. A dissipating stationary front
continues to 30N73W. A line of clouds and likely embedded showers
accompany the frontal boundary. Scatterometer data shows a fairly
large region of 20-25 kt winds north of the boundary to 32N, with
stronger winds north of the area. Weather conditions are quiet
over the eastern and tropical Atlantic supported by surface high
pressure centered north of the region, and dry air aloft.
Over the W Atlantic, a ridge will extend along 28N today as high
pressure currently over Bermuda shifts southward. The center of
the high pressure will shift E and weaken Fri to between Bermuda
and the northern Bahamas, ahead of a cold front moving into the
central Atlantic. The western end of the front will stall and
dissipate from 25N65W to 31N70W through Sat. Another front will
move off the NE Florida coast Sun night, before stalling and
weakening along 27N through Mon.
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