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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 152359

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
659 PM EST Tue Jan 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2315 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N11W 
to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 00N30W to the coast 
of Brazil near 02S44W. Isolated moderate convection is from 06S-
05N between 30W-43W.


A 1030 mb high pressure is centered over Mississippi near 33N90W. 
Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds prevail over the Gulf of
Mexico. A surface trough is analyzed over the west Gulf from 
28N96W to 22N97W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over the 
NW Gulf N of 25N and W of 94W. The remainder of the Gulf has 
broken low clouds. 

High pressure will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through 
Friday. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will set up across 
the western Gulf by Friday night ahead of a strong cold front 
forecast to reach the NW Gulf by Saturday evening. A large area of
gales will be behind the front.


In the upper levels, a ridge is in control of the Caribbean, with
subsidence covering the entire basin. Latest scatterometer data 
indicates gentle to moderate east winds across eastern and 
southern Caribbean, while fresh to strong east winds are off the 
coast of Colombia south of 13N between 72W-77W. Scattered showers 
are possible over the northwest Caribbean along the coast of the 
Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent waters mainly south of 20N and 
west of 86W. Overcast low clouds with isolated embedded showers 
are over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, and 

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south-central 
Caribbean Sea through Sat night. Winds will reach near gale force 
along the coast of Colombia at night through Wed night, then 
minimal gale force winds will be possible off the coast of 
Colombia each night Thu night through Sat night. Moderate to 
locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere.


As of 15/2100 UTC, a cold front extends south across the west 
Atlantic from 31N58W to 25N64W to 24N70W. Scatterometer data 
shows moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the front. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms extend 90 nm ahead of the 
front mainly north of 26N. To the east, a surface trough extends 
from 26N54W to 22N56W. Another trough is over the east Atlantic 
from 28N30W to 23N20W. Scattered showers are noted within 90 nm of
both troughs.

The west Atlantic cold front will reach from 31N57W to the 
southern Bahamas on Wednesday, then stall and weaken from 31N53W 
to Turks and Caicos on Thursday. A reinforcing surge of cool air 
will freshen the winds east of the northern Bahamas Wednesday 
night and Thursday. Southerly winds will strengthen this weekend 
east of Florida.

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