000
AXNT20 KNHC 210418
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Nov 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0418 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W, then runs 
southwestward to 09N24W. An ITCZ continues westward from 09N24W 
to 09N53W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is 
occurring near and south of the monsoon trough and part of the 
ITCZ north of 03.5N east of 24W. 

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered moderate convection across the Caribbean waters near 
Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is causing isolated showers over the NW Gulf.
Otherwise, a surface ridge related to a 1019 mb high just west of
Spring Hill, FL continues to dominate the Gulf. Light to gentle 
winds and 1-2 ft seas are found at the northeastern Gulf. 
Moderate to locally fresh SE winds and seas at 3-5 ft are present 
off the southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. Gentle to moderate
with locally fresh ESE winds and 2-5 ft seas prevail for the rest
of the Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will 
pulse offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of 
Campeche each afternoon and evening into next week as a trough 
develops each day and moves westward. Elsewhere, moderate to 
occasionally fresh E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas are 
expected over much of the Gulf through Fri as ridging prevails 
over the southeastern United States. Looking ahead, fresh to 
locally strong SE winds will develop in the northwestern Gulf Sun 
into next week as a low pressure system moves through the southern
United States. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is producing isolated showers near and south of 
Hispaniola. Convergent trade winds are coupling with divergent 
flow aloft to generate scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms over Trinidad and Tobago, and near the southern 
Windward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for 
additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh NE 
to E winds and seas at 4-8 ft are found across the western basin,
including the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate with locally
fresh ENE to E winds and 3-6 ft seas are noted in the central and
eastern basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will occur over 
the basin into next week as low pressure anchors over the south- 
central Caribbean and high pressure prevails north of the region. 
Pulsing strong winds and locally rough seas are expected offshore 
of northern Colombia each night and morning this weekend into next
week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front curves southwestward from a 1013 mb low near 
33N54W across 31N54W to 28N68W. A surface trough is ahead of the
stationary front and extends from 31N50W to 22N52W. Scattered 
moderate convection is evident along these features particularly,
north of 26N between 58W and 62W, and north of 22N between 46W 
and 54W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the 
beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Gentle to locally moderate NW to NE winds and seas at 3-6 ft are 
found north of 20N between 50W and the Florida-Georgia coast. To 
the east, moderate to fresh NE to SE winds and seas of 8-10 ft 
dominate north of 26N between 35W and 50W. For the tropical 
Atlantic from 05N-20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle 
to moderate E trades and 5-7 ft seas are found. For the Atlantic 
Basin east of 35W, a 1015 mb low at 28N25W with an associated cold
front extending to its southwest is producing fresh to strong NE 
winds north of 28N between 22W-35W with seas 8-14 ft. Elsewhere 
east of 35W, winds are moderate or lighter with seas 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh NE winds will 
occur north of the Greater Antilles and through the southern and 
central Bahamas into early Sat as high pressure prevails to the 
north and low pressure anchors over the south-central Caribbean. 
Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh SW to W winds are expected 
north of 29N and west of 65W, including offshore of northern 
Florida by Sat as a cold front moves off the east coast of the 
U.S. The front is forecast to enter the northern waters on Sun, 
leading to mostly moderate N to NE winds and building seas in the 
wake of the front.

$$
KRV