919 
AXNT20 KNHC 080445
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Jun 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave axis has been relocated and is 
now analyzed along 53W from French Guinea to 11N. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms are along the wave axis, west of the 
wave to Suriname, and east of the wave over northeast Brazil.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and 
continues southwestward to 09N20W, where it transitions to the 
ITCZ that extends from 09N20W to 05N50W. Scattered moderate 
convection is seen within 120 nm north and south of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure continues to extend westward from the Atlantic to
across Florida and the central Gulf waters. While, a trough is 
analyzed over the Yucatan Peninsula. The related gradient is 
allowing for gentle to moderate winds west of 90W, except for 
fresh lo locally strong NE winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula. 
East of 90W, light to gentle winds prevail, except for moderate 
winds over the NE part of the basin. Seas are 2-4 ft throughout 
the basin. 

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend its ridge 
into the eastern Gulf through the weekend, then build modestly 
westward into the central Gulf through the middle of next week. 
Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected each afternoon and 
evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of
Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves westward, with 
moderate to fresh SE winds elsewhere in the western and south- 
central Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and 
relatively lower pressures in South America is supporting fresh 
to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of
Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere in the 
central basin along with seas of 7 to 9 ft. Gentle to moderate 
trades and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail in the eastern and western 
Caribbean. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is 
evident south of 15N and west of 80W.

For the forecast, weak high pressure N of the region and centered
W of Bermuda will shift NE and into the N central Atlantic 
through the weekend. The Atlantic ridge will then build SW into 
the Bahamas and S Florida through the middle of the week. This 
pattern will lead to fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough 
seas across most of the central basin, spreading westward through 
the middle of next week, except in the SW Caribbean where winds 
will be weaker. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. 
Seas will build to rough with the increasing winds, as well as in 
the Tropical N Atlantic by early next week through at least mid- 
week.

Of Note: A potential for significant rain continues into early 
next week across eastern Nicaragua and possibly into northeast 
Honduras as unsettled weather is forecast to develop across the 
area. Uncertainty in terms of rainfall amounts is high at this 
time. Please refer to your local meteorological office for more 
details. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is analyzed over the basin. Refer to the section
above for details.

Fo the western Atlantic, moderate S to SW winds are noted north 
of 27N and west of 68W due to a somewhat tide pressure gradient 
over the area. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by high pressure
of 1030 mb centered near the Azores. Gentle to moderate trades 
and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail north of 21N. South of 21N, moderate to
locally fresh trades prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure will build modestly
W-SW into the Bahamas and S Florida through Tue, then weaken 
slightly by mid-week. Expect fresh to strong winds to pulse each 
afternoon and evening offshore of Hispaniola early next week, with
pulsing moderate to fresh winds off NE Florida and elsewhere 
south of 22N. These winds will weaken somewhat mid- week as the 
high weakens. 

$$
KRV