000
AXNT20 KNHC 230603
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Nov 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues 
southwestward to 09N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and 
continues to 07N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
03N to 14N and E of 44W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A frontal boundary slowing making its way into the NW Gulf from
SE TX is helping to induce scattered showers in the NW Gulf. A 
1020 mb high pressure is centered near 27N86W, resulting in 
moderate or weaker winds in anticyclonic flow across the vast 
majority of the Gulf, except for the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche 
where moderate to locally fresh NE winds persist. Slight seas 
prevail across the basin. 

For the forecast, a weak stationary frontal boundary is along the
Texas coast will lift back north as a warm front on Sun. Expect 
fresh southerly flow off the Texas coast Sun night through Mon 
night supported by the gradient between low pressure over 
northeast Mexico and high pressure that will be centered just 
offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast. These winds will diminish Tue 
ahead of another front moving across the southern Plains. Looking 
ahead, this stronger front will move into the northwest Gulf early
on Wed, then sweep to the southeast of the basin by late Thu, 
followed by fresh northeast winds and building seas. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front across the NW 
Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough parallels the coasts of Honduras, Nicaragua,
and Costa Rica, leading to scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection in the Caribbean generally S of 20N and W of 79W.
Elsewhere, the combination between high pressure over the western
Atlantic and the Colombian low is resulting in fresh to strong 
trade winds over most of the central Caribbean as captured by a 
recent scatterometer pass. Seas are 6-8 ft with these winds. 
Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 3-6 ft are noted over the 
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will 
pulse offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning well 
into next week due to the pressure gradient resulting from the 
combination of high pressure over the western Atlantic and 
relatively lower pressure over northern Colombia and the south- 
central Caribbean. Rough seas can be expected with these winds. 
Elsewhere, the gradient will also support moderate to fresh trade 
winds along with moderate seas over the remainder of the basin 
through the period. Scattered to numerous showers and 
thunderstorms associated with a trough are over the western 
Caribbean from 14N to 20N between 81W and 85W. Gusty winds are 
possible with this activity as it may linger into Sun night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the discussion waters near 31N58W and
extends to near 26N66W. No significant convection is associated
with this front. A surface trough is analyzed from 31N46W to 
17N52W. This trough is interacting with an upper level trough with
axis along 50W, leading to scattered moderate convection 
occurring N of 22N between 44W and 49W. Farther east, convergent 
surface winds are leading to the development of scattered showers 
to the SW of the Canary Islands. 

Outside of convection, the pressure gradient between a 1032 mb
high near 38N22W and lower pressures in the deep tropics support
fresh to strong E to NE winds N of 23N and E of 45W, where seas of
7-10 ft are also analyzed. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, moderate
to locally fresh trades and moderate seas are prevalent E of the 
Lesser Antilles and S of 20N, as well as along the northern coasts
of Cuba and Hispaniola. Elsewhere N of 20N and W of 50W, moderate
or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft prevail.
 
For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extending from 
near 31N59W southwestward to 26N67W will weaken and dissipate by 
early Sun evening. High pressure off east-central Florida will 
dissipate through Sun, ahead of another weak cold front that will 
move off the northeast Florida coast early Sun. The front will 
reach from near Bermuda to Sebastian Inlet, Florida by early Mon. 
The eastern portion of the front will continue eastward and reach 
from 30N55W to 27N70W by early Tue, while the portion west of 70W 
starts to lift back north as a warm front. High pressure will 
build north of the front off the Carolina coast, supporting 
moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas across
the region, with large NW swell following the front southeast of 
Bermuda. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish west of 70W 
by Wed, ahead of front expected to move off the northeast Florida 
coast early Thu. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits 
of Florida by late Thu night, followed by fresh northeast winds 
and building seas. 

$$
Adams