000
AXNT20 KNHC 091013
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Oct 9 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Jerry is near 15.7N 57.7W at 5 AM EDT, moving 
west-northwest at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with 
gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Peak 
seas are currently near 27 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate to 
strong convection is noted from 12.5N to 15.5N between 54W and 
58W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere
from 10.5N to 20N between 54W and 59W. Fresh to strong SE winds
with squalls and isolated thunderstorms are occurring out to 300
nm to the N and NW of the center of Jeffry. On the current forecast
track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or to the 
northeast of the northern Leeward Islands this afternoon through
tonight. Large easterly swell generated by Jerry is expected to 
reach the Leeward and Windward Islands this morning, then spread 
westward toward the Greater Antilles on Friday. These swells are 
likely to cause large and powerful surf and life-threatening rip 
current conditions. Please consult products from your local 
weather office for specific information on local impacts.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Jerry
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov 
for more details.

Significant Rainfall Across Eastern Mexico: Disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms continue with a trough of low pressure moving 
westward across the Bay of Campeche and into eastern Mexico. 
Areas of heavy rain and strong gusty winds are likely across 
portions of southern Mexico during the day today before shifting 
mostly inland. Please, stay up to date with the latest forecast 
and possible flood statements from your local weather agency.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W, from 20N 
southward, and moving W at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted along 10N, where the wave meets the ITCZ. 

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W, from 19N 
southward, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
dots the waters from 14N to 18N between 65W and 70W. 

A western Caribbean tropical wave is noted along 81W, moving W at
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the 
NW Caribbean from 19.5N to 22N between 81W and 85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 11N16W to 10N20W. 
The ITCZ continues from 10N20W to 10N27W, then resumes W of a
tropical wave near 08N32W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the ITCZ between 23W-39W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please refer to the Special Features section on potential heavy 
rain across eastern Mexico. Moderate to strong convection
continues this morning within 120 nm of the coast from central
portions of Tabasco to Cabo Rojo. Fresh to strong and gusty winds
are near this convection, along with rough seas. Otherwise, a 
fairly flat and broad ridge prevails north of the basin, producing 
moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas to 7 ft N 
of 23N, with gentle to moderate NE-E winds and slight seas S of 
23N away from the SW Gulf.

For the forecast, winds and seas across the Mexican coastal 
waters S of Cabo Rojo will slowly subside this morning as the 
trough provoking active thunderstorms along the coast shifts 
westward and further inland. Elsewhere, a building high pressure 
ridge north of the Gulf will promote moderate to locally fresh NE 
to E winds across the basin today through Sat, with fresh to 
strong NE winds over the NE Gulf waters. Looking ahead, winds and 
seas across the entire Gulf should be quiescent from Sun through 
early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about Tropical Storm 
Jerry, and the Tropical Waves section for details on two tropical waves
in the basin.

Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean,
with gentle to locally moderate winds dominating the waters. Seas
are slight across the majority of the basin, except to 5 ft in 
and near Atlantic passages of the Lesser Antilles due to both to
fading NE swell and arriving SE swell from Jerry. Other than the 
convection associated with the W Caribbean tropical wave, 
scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from near the coast 
to offshore N Colombia, and near the coast of Panama due to the 
eastward extension of the east Pacific monsoon trough. Some 
additional activity is noted N of the Gulf of Honduras to the E of
Belize.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Jerry will move to 17.0N 59.7W 
this afternoon, near 18.8N 61.7W Thu night, just northeast of the 
N Leeward Islands, strengthen to a hurricane near 21.2N 62.8W Fri 
afternoon, to the N of the Leeward Islands, then continue moving 
northward and away from the Caribbean Fri night through Sun. Brief
fresh to strong southerly winds will impact the Leeward Islands 
Fri. Otherwise, no significant wind from Jerry is expected to 
impact the Caribbean. However large E swell will move through the 
Caribbean passages of the Leeward Islands Thu afternoon through 
Fri, and then NE swell through the Anegada Passage early Fri 
through Sat. High pressure will begin to build from the central 
Atlantic to the Bahamas late Sun and Mon to bring a return to 
easterly trade winds across the eastern Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
Tropical Storm Jerry, and the Tropical Waves section for details
on the tropical wave moving across the E Atlantic.

A stationary front extends southwestward from 31N35W to 28N61W, 
then a shearline continues from that point to 26N71W. S of the 
front, recent scatterometer data depicts a trough, which is 
analyzed from 23N52W to 24N59W. Scattered moderate convection 
prevails in the vicinity of these features N of 19N between 
36W-71W. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are noted across the waters
N of the front. A ridge extends across the waters SE of the front
and to the N of Jerry from 31N30W to 23N55W. Gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic winds are noted right under the ridge. Moderate to 
fresh NE-E trades extend from offshore northern Africa to the SE 
of the ridge across the waters N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ,
to 50W, with rough seas to 9 ft, except for strong winds near the
N coast of Africa and near the Canary Islands. Moderate or weaker
winds are found across the remainder of the waters. Moderate seas
are noted across the remainder of the waters away from Jerry, 
except slight seas inside the Bahamas.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Jerry will move to 
17.0N 59.7W this afternoon, near 18.8N 61.7W Thu night, just 
northeast of the N Leeward Islands, strengthen to a hurricane near
21.2N 62.8W Fri afternoon, to the N of the Leeward Islands, reach
near 23.8N 63.1W Fri night, near 28.4N 62.2W Sat night, and near 
31.7N 60.1W Sun night. Jerry will change little in intensity early
next week as it moves eastward across the central Atlantic. An 
extratropical low pressure system is expected to develop offshore 
of northeastern Florida Sat and move northeastward through the 
weekend. Fresh to strong E winds are expected to occur north of a 
warm frontal boundary near 30N Fri. A cold front will develop W of
the low on Sat across the extreme NW waters and north Florida, 
producing fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas across 
the Florida coastal waters north of the NW Bahamas from Sat 
through Sun morning. 

$$
Stripling