000
AXNT20 KNHC 130427
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri  Dec 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0425 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES:

The OUTLOOK section for the METEO-FRANCE marine forecast 
consists of the threat of cyclonic near gale or gale in the 
marine zone IRVING. The OUTLOOK period covers the next 24 hours 
after the initial 36-hour forecast period. Please, refer to the 
website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N11W and extends 
southwestward to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to 
04N48W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 02N to 
07N between 20W and 43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1033 mb high prevails over the Deep South in the United States 
and a stationary front extends from central Cuba through 
northern Honduras. The pressure gradient between these features 
supports fresh to strong NE winds over the eastern Gulf of 
Mexico and through the Florida Straits, mainly for areas east of 
89W and south of 28N. Rough seas of 8 to 11 ft accompany these 
winds. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and 
seas of 3 to 6 ft are occurring across northern and western 
portions of the Gulf. Residual rough seas to 8 ft remain in the 
southern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are 
noted in the far southwestern Gulf. 

For the forecast, a strong high pressure and associated ridge 
will dominate the Gulf of Mexico waters, supporting fresh to 
strong NE winds and rough seas in the SE Gulf through Sun night. 
Afterward, moderate to fresh E-SE winds across the remainder 
basin will further diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front is analyzed from central Cuba southwestward 
through northern Honduras. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are 
noted in the vicinity of the front across much of the 
northwestern Caribbean, as well as through the Windward Passage 
and downwind of Hispaniola. This pressure gradient also supports 
moderate to locally fresh NE winds across the central and 
southwestern Caribbean, with locally strong winds occurring 
offshore of Colombia. Gentle to locally moderate NE winds 
prevail in the eastern Caribbean. Rough seas of 8 to 11 ft 
prevail through the Yucatan Channel and into the northwestern 
basin, as well as offshore of Colombia and eastern Panama. 

For the forecast, a stationary front extending from central Cuba 
to the Gulf of Honduras will dissipate late tonight into Fri. A 
strong ridge building over the Gulf of Mexico and shifting to 
the SW N Atlantic waters will sustain fresh to strong NE winds 
and moderate to rough seas in the NW Caribbean and the Windward 
Passage through Sun morning. Afterward, moderate to fresh NE 
winds will further diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by Mon 
afternoon as the broad high pressure shift NE and then eastward 
to the north-central Atlantic waters. The high pressure will 
also support fresh to strong NE winds over the central and SW 
Caribbean through Sat morning. Moderate to fresh NE winds over 
the E Caribbean will diminish on Fri as a surface trough enters 
the region.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N69W through the central 
Bahamas, and continues southwestward into the northwestern 
Caribbean. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are occurring along and 
behind this front, generally west of 71W through the Bahamas and 
the Florida Straits. Rough seas of 8 to 11 ft prevail in the 
region of fresh to strong winds. Elsewhere, a trough extends 
from 27N52W to 15N55W, and a 1040 mb is centered north of the 
area near 45N39W. The strengthening pressure gradient between 
these features is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds 
generally north of 22N between 42W and 63W. Rough seas are noted 
across all of the aforementioned areas surrounding the trough, 
with peak seas of 13 to 17 ft occurring north of 24N between 52W 
and 59W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is 
depicted from 14.5N to 27N between 48W and 56W in association to 
the aforementioned trough. South of 20N, moderate to fresh 
trades and seas of 6 to 9 ft prevail. Elsewhere, moderate to 
locally fresh NE winds prevail, except for gentle winds north of 
22N and east of 35W.

For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front extending from 
31N68W to the central Bahamas and into central Cuba will 
dissipate tonight into Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds and 
rough seas affecting the central and southern Florida offshore 
waters, and the northern and central Bahamas will prevail and 
expand in areal coverage through the weekend as strong high 
pressure building in the wake of the front will tighten the 
pressure gradient against an approaching surface trough from the 
east. Frequent gust to gale force winds are likely over the 
northern Bahamas offshore waters Sat through Sun. Winds will 
start to gradually weaken across the region Sun night into Mon.

$$
KRV