641 
AXNT20 KNHC 170505
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat May 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0455 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough reaches the eastern Atlantic waters through the
coast of Guinea-bissau near 12N16W, and continues southwestward to
04N27W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 02N51W. Scattered moderate
convection is evident south of 10N and west of 25W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A broad subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic
extends into the Gulf of America, maintaining fairly dry weather
conditions across the basin. The pressure gradient between the
aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in Mexico support
moderate to locally fresh SE winds in the western half of the
Gulf, mainly west of 90W, north of Yucatan and in the Florida
Straits. Seas in these waters are moderate. Light to gentle winds
and slight seas are prevalent in the rest of the Gulf.

Smoke from agricultural fires over SE Mexico is affecting the
western Gulf. The smoke mixes with haze to create a smoky atmosphere.
Durante this time of the year, dense smoke can be seen over the 
NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras, and in the Gulf of 
America reducing visibility for mariners. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over
the eastern Gulf and relatively lower pressure in Texas and 
eastern Mexico will maintain moderate to fresh SE winds and 
moderate seas across the western Gulf through early Tue evening. 
Pulsing fresh to locally strong E winds are likely each afternoon 
and evening, north of the Yucatan Peninsula as a trough develops 
daily and drifts westward. Smoke from agricultural fires in 
southeastern Mexico will sustain hazy conditions at the west-
central and southwestern Gulf into early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A broad upper level trough extends from the Atlantic across
Hispaniola into the central and SW Caribbean enhances the evening
showers and isolated thunderstorms across parts of Hispaniola and
the NE Antilles. A few showers are also noted in the SW 
Caribbean, while generally dry weather conditions prevail in the 
NW Caribbean. The subtropical ridge north of the islands sustains 
moderate to fresh easterly winds in the central and eastern 
Caribbean, Windward Passage, lee of Cuba and the Gulf of Honduras.
Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight
to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere.

A cut-off low is forecast to develop along the trough axis N of 
Puerto Rico on Sat. This will continue to enhance the developing 
of showers and thunderstorms over the NE Caribbean over the next 
couple of days.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E to SE winds will pulse in
the Gulf of Honduras late in the afternoons and at night through
midweek next week. Moderate to fresh trades along with moderate 
seas over the south-central basin will continue through Sat
morning. Similar conditions are expected in the lee of Cuba and 
near the Windward Passage for the rest of tonight and Sat night. 
Moderate to fresh trades and rough seas will persist over the 
Atlantic waters near and east of the Lesser Antilles through Sun 
night. On Sun night, increasing trades along with building seas 
are expected across the eastern basin, which will then shift
westward across the central and southwestern basin through the 
middle of next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The aforementioned upper-level trough is also helping to induce 
an area of showers, with embedded thunderstorms, roughly between 
60W and 68W. A surface trough is analyzed in this area and runs 
from 28N68W to 21N68W. Farther east, another surface 
trough extends from 31N20 to 24N42W to 25N50W. A narrow band of 
mainly low clouds, with light showers, is associated with this 
system. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate 
to fresh NE winds in the wake of the trough. Seas behind the
trough are 5-9 ft. 

The extensive 1027 mb high pressure positioned in the central 
Atlantic near 32N45W dominates the remainder of the tropical 
Atlantic forecast waters. Its associated ridge extends westward 
toward the Bahamas and Florida. An area of fresh to locally 
strong easterly trade winds are found south of 22N and between 
40W and 60W due to the pressure gradient between the high 
pressure to the N and lower pressures in the vicinity of the 
ITCZ. Seas are 6-9 ft within these winds. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate winds and moderate seas prevail.

An early surge of Saharan dust is noted across the tropical
Atlantic reaching the Lesser Antilles. The Saharan Air Layer
(SAL) activity usually ramps up in mid-June, peaks from late 
June to mid-August, and begins to subside after mid-August. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a weakening cold front will stall
just north of 31N and west of 70W, bringing moderate to locally 
fresh SW winds north of 28N from Sat evening through late Mon. A 
broad high pressure over the central Atlantic extending westward 
across Florida will support gentle winds south of 28N. In the long
term, fresh southwesterly winds and building seas are expected to
develop east of northeastern Florida and northeast of the Bahamas
near midweek next week, in response to another cold front moving 
off the southeastern U.S. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will 
pulse north of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage each night 
into next week.

$$
Delgado