000
AXNT20 KNHC 071743
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Feb 7 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warnings/Significant Swell: A
cold front that extends from 31N47W to the northern coast of
Puerto Rico is inducing gale conditions mainly behind the front 
along and north of 27N. Scattered showers are also present in 
this area. These gales will diminish this morning as the front 
weakens. Another cold front is currently analyzed from 31N66W to 
near Cape Canaveral. Combined NW swell behind both fronts is 
resulting in seas of 12-18 ft occurring N of 24N between 44W and
78W. This second front will move east and southeastward today,
inducing a broad area of gales N of 27N between 77W and 50W as 
the front tracks eastward through Mon. Winds near and along 30N 
may be near storm- force tonight into Sunday. Very rough seas 
generated by these gales combined with swell from storm- force and
hurricane- force low pressures to the north will propagate 
southward to impact most waters N of 18N into the middle of next 
week, with peak seas of 30 to 35 ft possible along 30N and to the 
SE of Bermuda Sun through Sun night.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on
these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia
near 06.5N11W and extends southwestward to 05.5N16W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05.5N16W west-southwestward to 00N34W. Scattered 
moderate convection is seen along the ITCZ between 24W and 33W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1024 mb high centered near 22N94W continues to dominate
conditions across the entire Gulf. Moderate to fresh NW to N 
winds and moderate seas are seen across the north-central and 
eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle winds and
slight seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, 1024 mb high pressure has settled over the SW 
Gulf near 22N93.5W, and will drift slowly NE and dominate the 
weather through the middle of next week, bringing generally 
quiescent conditions to the basin. Fresh NW to N winds across the 
waters E of 87W this morning will gradually diminish and veer to 
the NE through Sun morning. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A cold front extends from SW Puerto Rico to 17N69W, where it
becomes a stationary front that curves westward along the
Hispaniola coast and then southward to offshore NW Colombia. 
Fresh to strong N winds and moderate seas are W of the front, 
with 8-10 ft seas seen in the SW Caribbean. To the E of the 
front, gentle to moderate trades and slight seas prevail. A
pair of surface troughs are also analyzed in the central to
eastern Caribbean, with scattered showers occurring near both
trough axes. 

For the forecast, a weakening cold front has stalled from western
Puerto Rico to offshore of southwest Haiti near 17.5N73W to near 
the coast of NW Colombia and the Gulf of Uraba. The front will 
drift SE across the central Leeward Islands through Tue then 
gradually dissipate. Strong N winds and rough seas will prevail 
across the SW basin behind the front, through Sun. In the wake of 
the front, fresh to strong trades will develop offshore Colombia 
and Hispaniola Sun night, then increase and expand through the 
central basin into the middle of next week, as high pressure 
builds N of the area. Rough seas will develop in this area of 
strong winds. Additionally, large NW to N Atlantic swell will 
impact the Mona Passage, Anegada Passage, and tropical N Atlantic 
waters Sun night through Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Gale 
Warnings and areas of significant swell in the western and central 
Atlantic.

Outside of the gale warning areas, fresh to strong SW winds are 
ahead of the central Atlantic cold front, N of a line running from
20N60W to 31N30W. Rough seas are also present in this area. 
Strong W winds are also present N of 24W behind the central
Atlantic cold front, with rough to very rough seas. Elsewhere in 
the Atlantic, moderate to fresh trades dominate the waters S of 
22N and E of 60W, with fresh to strong trades occurring from 16N 
to 25N and E of 25W per recent scatterometer data. Rough seas are 
impacting much of the waters E of 40W, and S of 10N between 35W 
and 50W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, strong winds are diminishing on both 
sides of a cold front that extends from 31N47W to the NW coast of 
Puerto Rico. New gales have developed N of 28.5N on either side of
a reinforcing cold front that is moving across the NW waters this
morning, extending from Bermuda to central Florida. Widespread 
gale-force to near storm-force winds will impact waters N of 27N 
and E of 77W this weekend, as the merging fronts reach from 31N48W
to the northern Leeward Islands Sun morning, then begin to 
dissipate from 31N40W to the central Leewards Tue. Gales behind 
the front will shift NE of the northeastern zones late Mon. Very 
rough seas generated by these winds will propagate SE and impact 
much of the waters into early next week, with peak seas of 30 to 
35 ft possible SE of Bermuda on Sun. The very rough seas are 
likely to finally depart the region to the east on Wed. $$ Adams