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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 140543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1243 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front will enter the Gulf Thursday, then move SE and clear
the basin Fri. In the wake of this front, gale force winds are 
forecast over portions of the SW Gulf on Friday morning north of 
19N and west of 95W, with seas ranging between 9-11 ft. These 
conditions will continue through late Friday. See the latest NWS 
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under 
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has been repositioned with axis along 
53W from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers
are noted from 17N-20N between 50W-54W.

A west Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 85W from 
17N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are 
noted near the wave axis in the SW Caribbean, mainly enhanced by
the presence of the monsoon trough. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to
08N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N48W. Scattered 
moderate convection are noted within 210 nm on either sides of the
monsoon trough between 20W-38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the southwest Gulf waters. 

A stationary front extends across the southern portion of the
basin from 25N80W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 22N88W. A surface
trough extends over the western Gulf from 27N97W to 19N93W. A 
1022 mb high is centered over the Texas/Mexico border near 
26N98W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly 
winds across most of the basin. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted
over the southwest Gulf. 

The stationary front will begin to drift NW-N and gradually 
dissipate Thu. A new cold front will move into the Gulf Thu, then 
moves SE and clear the basin Fri. Weak low pressure is expected to
form Thu night or early Fri over the NE Gulf and move slowly NE. 
In the wake of this front, gale force winds are forecast over 
portions of the SW Gulf Fri and Fri night. The next cold front 
may move into the western Gulf late Sun through Mon. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

Scattered showers and tstorms over the NW Caribbean and eastern 
Yucatan Peninsula mainly north of 18N between 84W-88W. Relatively
dry air covers much of the eastern and central Caribbean. 
Scattered showers and isolated tstorms over the far SW Caribbean 
and over land from N Colombia to Nicaragua are due to the east 
Pacific monsoon trough and the tropical wave along 85W.
Scatterometer data depicts light to moderate trades across the
basin.

The stationary front will begin to drift NW-N and gradually 
dissipate today. The next cold front will move into the far NW 
Caribbean late Friday, gradually stalling after reaching eastern 
Cuba to Nicaragua Sunday. The remnants of the front will linger 
roughly along 80W for the start of next week. Fresh to strong N 
winds will follow this next cold front as it moves across the NW 
Caribbean. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient across the basin 
will lead to generally moderate tradewinds. NE swell will impact 
the Atlantic as well as Caribbean passages Fri through the weekend
and into early next week. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

A frontal system extends across the west Atlantic, analyzed as a 
cold front from 31N65W to 27N74W, then becomes stationary from 
that point to 25N80W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 
31N63W to 22N70W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the
cold front and northern half of the trough. Surface ridge prevails
across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1036 mb high
centered near 43N31W. A surface trough is noted in scatterometer
data extending from 16N44W to 09N49W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails along the trough.

The frontal system in the west Atlantic will completely stall and
begin to drift northward as it gradually dissipates today. Fresh 
to near gale force northerly winds and large seas will prevail 
behind the front through tonight, diminishing and decaying
Thursday through Friday. Low pressure is forecast to develop near
NE Florida by early Friday and move NE through the far NW basin 
into Saturday. This low will drag another cold front across the 
basin W of 70W through the remainder of the upcoming weekend. Gale
force winds will be possible across the northern waters W of 70W 
this weekend, with conditions in the wake of the front improving
on Monday. An elongated area of low pressure may move into the 
far SE portion of the basin for the start of next week.

$$

ERA