000
AXNT20 KNHC 102109
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Jul 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the central
Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South 
America will support strong to near gale-force northeast to east 
trades over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of 
Venezuela into early next week. Winds are forecast to pulse to 
gale- force off the coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela 
tonight and again Sat night. Seas are expected to peak to around 
14 ft off Colombia Sat night. 

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 54W, south 
of 16N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms are seen near the wave axis.

The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W south of 19N
into the eastern north Pacific, moving westward at about 15-20 
kt. Active convection is along the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 08N28W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N28W to 09N53W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is from 06N to 11N between 16W and 23W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted across the 
western and northern Gulf. A relatively weak pressure gradient
over the area is supporting gentle to locally moderate winds,
along with slight seas, across the region.

For the forecast, ridging will dominate into next week, 
supporting mainly gentle SE winds. Fresh E winds will pulse 
offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
gale conditions forecast for offshore Colombia and in the Gulf 
of Venezuela.

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian
low is supporting strong winds over the central Caribbean,
reaching near gale force off Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades 
and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between central Atlantic 
high pressure and lower pressure over northern South America will 
support strong trades over the central Caribbean through next 
week. Winds will pulse to gale-force off Colombia and in the Gulf 
of Venezuela tonight and Sat night. Trades over the Gulf of 
Honduras will pulse to strong each evening through early next 
week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N53W to 30N60W. Scattered showers
are in the vicinity of the trough. Moderate winds, and seas of 4-6
ft, are N of the trough. Farther east, a cold front enters the
waters near 31N18W and extends to 28N32W to 30N36W. Gentle to
moderate winds are N of the front. High pressure dominates the
remainder of the waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1024 mb high near
28N38W, and a 1024 mb high near 26N64W. Light to gentle winds are
in the vicinity of the high. Moderate to fresh winds are noted
elsewhere. Seas are moderate or less across the discussion waters. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain 
dominant through the period, supporting moderate to fresh trades S
of 23N, with mainly gentle winds to the N. Pulsing strong winds 
are expected each N offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward 
Passage. An upper-level low pressure will move W from the Bahamas 
and Florida through the weekend, bringing thunderstorms with 
locally strong winds and frequent lightning. 

$$
AL