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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 201044

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
644 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1020 UTC.


Hurricane Jerry is centered near 18.4N 58.7W at 20/0900 UTC or 
250 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at 14 kt. 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb. Maximum sustained 
wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Scattered moderate to 
strong convection is within 150 nm of the center in the NW and SW
quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is within 300 nm of the NE
quadrant. A west-northwest to northwest motion at a decreasing 
forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast 
track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward
Islands later today, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday, 
and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday. 
A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin later today, but 
Jerry is expected to remain a hurricane during the next few days.
See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC or for more details.


An Atlantic tropical wave has been added along 21W S of 18N and is
moving W at 10-15 kt. Model guidance depicts this wave well. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N-15N between 18W- 

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 47W S of 15N is moving 
W at 10 kt. Model guidance depicts this wave well. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 06N-13N between 45W-49W. 

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W S of 18N is moving
W at 10 kt. A 1008 mb low pressure center is along the wave axis 
near 12N76W. Another low pressure center is located in the wave's
environment near 16N72W with a central pressure of 1008 mb. 
Scattered moderate convection is seen from 12N-19N between 71W- 
77W, including south-central Hispaniola. 


The monsoon trough passes through Mauritania near 18N16W to 
12N22W to 08N31W. The ITCZ begins near 08N31W to 09N45W, then
continues W of a tropical wave near 08N48W to the coast of Guyana
near 08N59W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical 
waves, scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon 
trough from 05N-12N between 13W-44W, and along the ITCZ from
07N-11N between 51W-59W.


Showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed across the NW 
Gulf associated with the open wave that was formerly Imelda, 
mostly N of 28N and W of 91W. A dying stationary front is draped 
across the eastern Gulf from 23N83W to 29N86W with no significant 
convection associated with it. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to
strong winds across the eastern Gulf, mostly E of 85W. Elsewhere,
gentle winds are noted in the Bay of Campeche with moderate to 
fresh winds are seen across the rest of the basin.

High pressure centered over the Carolinas will dominate the Gulf 
waters through Sunday. The pressure gradient will tighten over 
the eastern Gulf through Saturday night resulting in fresh to 
strong easterly winds and building seas to 8 ft. New high pressure
will develop over the northern Gulf by early next week.


Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin. 

An upper level trough extends into the NW Caribbean through N 
Honduras. A trough is reflected at the surface and is analyzed 
from 17N78W to 15N83W. Isolated thunderstorms are seen in the NW
Caribbean stretching from the Cayman Islands to the Gulf of
Honduras. Upper level ridging across the central Atlantic extends
into the eastern Caribbean which is inhibiting deep convection. 
However, there are some passing showers across the Lesser 
Antilles through eastern Puerto Rico with some isolated 
thunderstorms seen across the northern Lesser Antilles. Latest 
scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across most of 
the basin with moderate to fresh northerly winds in the NW 

An elongated area of low pressure S of Hispaniola will continue 
to produce locally heavy rainfall over Hispaniola and eastern Cuba
into the weekend, while the low moves slowly NW, with scattered 
thunderstorms over the adjacent waters.


Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical wave,
Hurricane Jerry and Hurricane Humberto. 

A stationary front extends across the central and western 
Atlantic, entering the forecast discussion area near 34N57W to 
23N79W. Scattered thunderstorms are noted along this front, mostly
from 23N-31N between 59W-77W. Surface ridging prevails across the
remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 
32N43W. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds 
across the western Atlantic, from N of 26N and W of 74W. 

Hurricane Jerry will move to 19.1N 60.8W this afternoon, 20.4N 
63.3W Saturday morning, 21.8N 65.4W Saturday afternoon, 23.2N 
67.1W Sunday morning, and 26.1N 68.4W Monday morning. Jerry will 
change little in intensity as it moves to near 29.4N 66.8W early 
Tuesday, and continue N of the area to near the Wednesday. 
Meanwhile, large swell generated by now extratropical Humberto 
well N of the area will continue propagating S-SW and impacting 
Atlantic waters N and E of the Bahamas through the weekend.