234 
AXNT20 KNHC 091040
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri May 9 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1035 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and
extends southwestward to 05N21W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N21W to
00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is present south of 05N and
west of 25W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front is moving across the NW Gulf of America, extending
from SW Louisiana to NE Tamaulipas. A strong squall is noted ahead
of the front, producing wind gusts to gale force, frequent
lightning strikes and higher seas. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds and moderate seas are found behind the front. Generally dry
conditions are evident in the remainder of the basin. Moderate to
fresh SE winds and slight to moderate seas are present south of
26N and east of 94W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight
to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move 
eastward today, with a low developing along the front near SE 
Louisiana. The low will meander over the NE Gulf through Sun while
the front will move eastward across the western half of the 
basin. By Mon, the low is forecast to move northward and the front
will continue to move across the eastern Gulf. Fresh to strong 
northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the 
wake of the front through Sat night. Seas to 9 ft are expected Fri
night into Sat morning in the SW Gulf. Smoke from agricultural 
fires in southeastern Mexico is creating hazy conditions in parts 
of the Gulf region. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

High pressure north of the Caribbean supports fresh to strong
easterly winds in the Gulf of Honduras, along with seas of 3-6 ft.
Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are present in the central Caribbean,
including the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are also 3-6
ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area supports 
pulsing fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds in the 
Gulf of Honduras at night through Sat night. Moderate to locally 
fresh trades and slight to moderate seas are forecast over the 
remainder of the basin through today, including the waters E of 
the Lesser Antilles. Expect increasing winds and building moderate
to rough seas, mainly over the south-central Caribbean, including
off Colombia this upcoming weekend into early next week as the 
Atlantic high pressure builds westward. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends north to south along a weak 1013 mb low 
pressure near 26N67W. Another surface trough is noted north of the
Leeward Islands along 61W. The pressure gradient between a strong
ridge to the north and the aforementioned troughs sustain 
moderate to fresh SE-E winds and moderate to rough seas north of 
20N and between 45W and 65W. A weak ridge dominates the remainder 
of the SW North Atlantic waters, sustaining moderate or weaker 
winds and moderate seas.

An extratropical cyclone near 32N26W is producing a large area of
fresh to strong winds, especially north of 26N and between 20W and
38W. Seas in these waters are 10-16 ft, with the highest seas
occurring near 30N26W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, low pres centered between Bermuda 
and Hispaniola supports moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate to
rough seas over much of the waters E of 65W. These marine 
conditions will start to gradually diminish later today. The low 
pressure will meander near 27N between 65W and 70W today, and open
up into a trough by Sat morning. Then, the Atlantic high pressure
will build westward toward the Bahamas this upcoming weekend. 

$$
Delgado