000
AXNT20 KNHC 092309
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu May 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 
11N15W to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 03N40W to the 
coast of Guyana near 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 01S to 08N between 09W and 50W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure extends across most of the basin. Isolated 
thunderstorms are moving across the NW Gulf off the Texas and 
Louisiana coasts. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted 
across the basin ahead of an approaching cold front over Texas. 
Fresh winds are noted north of the Yucatan. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in
the eastern Gulf with 4 to 6 ft in the central and western Gulf. 

For the forecast, mainly fresh SE winds will prevail across much 
of the Gulf through tonight, ahead of a cold front slowly 
approaching from the northwest. The cold front will move off the 
Texas coast into the northwest Gulf Fri and move southeast, stall 
from south Texas to the Straits of Florida on Sun, then weaken and
drift northward. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will follow 
the front into Sat evening. Haze due to agricultural fires in 
southeastern Mexico persists across most of the western Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is centered NE of the Caribbean, with a
trough extending over the eastern basin. This is giving way to
scattered thunderstorms across the islands of Hispaniola, Puerto
Rico and the Leeward Islands, N of 16N and E of 72W. Elsewhere,
scattered moderate convection is off the coasts of Colombia and
Panama along the monsoon trough, S of 12N. 

Fresh to strong winds are likely occurring in the Gulf of
Honduras with seas to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
across the rest of the NW basin with 2 to 3 ft seas. Moderate to 
fresh winds are noted in the SE basin off the NE Venezuela coast. 
Otherwise, gentle to moderate trade winds dominate the Caribbean.
Seas range 3 to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends from the central 
Atlantic westward to central Florida, and will shift slowly 
eastward through the weekend. This pattern will support moderate 
to fresh trade winds over the south-central and southeast 
Caribbean through the weekend, with some increasing winds possible
early next week. Meanwhile, fresh to locally strong E winds will 
pulse primarily at night across the Gulf of Honduras through Sun. 
Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong SE winds over the northwest 
Caribbean and south-central Caribbean off Colombia early next 
week, between the high pressure over the western Atlantic and 
lowering pressure across the southwest Gulf of Mexico and over 
Colombia. These winds may pulse to near-gale over the Gulf of 
Honduras by Tue night. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
will persist elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, strong thunderstorms are moving off the
NE Florida coast N of 29N. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over
waters N of 26N and W of 60W. Surface ridging dominates the rest 
of the basin anchored by a 1021 mb high pressure near 31N38W.
Light to gentle winds are noted under the influence of the high
from 22N to 31N between 45W and 75W. 

An upper level trough extends over the central Atlantic along 57W,
which is inducing a surface trough along 60W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted east of the surface trough from 17N to 30N
between 40W and 54W. Moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds are
noted E of 55W to the coast of Africa. Seas range 5 to 8 ft across
this area. 

For the forecast, a ridge extending from high pressure centered 
near 30N35W westward into central Florida will shift slowly 
eastward through Sat, ahead of a cold front approaching from the 
northwest. Expect fresh to strong S to SW winds ahead of the front
tonight through late Fri between the northern Bahamas and 
Bermuda. The front will move off the northeast Florida coast Fri 
night, then weaken as it moves east, reaching from Bermuda to the 
central Bahamas by late Sat night. Winds and seas will diminish 
into Mon as the dissipating front continues to drift east of the 
area, and high pressure builds between the Carolinas and Bermuda 
in the wake of front. Looking ahead, SE winds will increase and 
seas will build late Mon through Tue night off northeast Florida 
and north of the Bahamas, as the high pressure shifts eastward 
ahead of the next weak front moving into the southeastern United 
States.

$$
AReinhart