000
AXNT20 KNHC 311743
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Jul 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A broad tropical wave is located along 45W from 03-20N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers are near the north end of
the wave axis. 

A weak central Atlantic tropical wave is along 56W, south of 20N,
moving westward around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted 
near this wave.

An central Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W, south of 19N, 
moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are observed near the north end of the wave axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 87W, south of 18N, 
slowly moving westward at around 5 kt. This wave appears to be
enhancing some convection over Guatemala and Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 09N31W. The
ITCZ then continues from 09N31W to 07N42W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen off the coast of Africa from 07-12N and E of
18W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

In the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche, scattered moderate convection
is occurring as a diurnal surface trough moves through the region.  
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also ongoing 
across the NW Gulf as an upper level low sits overhead. Away from
convection, ridging prevails across the Gulf with gentle to
moderate winds and seas of 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, fairly weak high pressure will dominate the 
basin through the forecast period, supporting mostly gentle to 
moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas. Scattered showers 
and thunderstorms are expected to increase along and just inland 
the NE Gulf coast this weekend as a weakening cold front stalls 
across northern Florida. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong E
winds off the coast of Colombia, with moderate to fresh trade 
winds elsewhere across the central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle 
to moderate breezes persist elsewhere. Seas are 6-9 ft in the 
area of strong winds off Colombia as well as in the SW Caribbean, 
and 3-6 ft elsewhere except 1-3 ft in the northwest Caribbean. In
addition to the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves 
section above, a few showers and thunderstorms are active off the 
coasts of Jamaica and Haiti.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high 
pressure and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to allow 
for fresh winds and rough seas over the central Caribbean through 
Sat, with winds pulsing to strong off the coast of Colombia. 
Generally moderate winds and seas will prevail elsewhere. A 
tropical wave accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms, 
some with gusty winds, is expected to move through the tropical 
Atlantic waters Fri through early Sat and through the eastern 
Caribbean later on Sat and through Sun, and across the central 
Caribbean through Mon. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong winds
and building seas early next week following the tropical wave 
over the central Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1020 mb high pressure remains centered between the central 
Bahamas and Bermuda near 26N71W. A weak surface trough is east of
the high pressure, extending from 30N63W to near 22N70W. An upper
trough is supporting a small cluster of showers and thunderstorms
near the north end of the trough axis. Across the remainder of the
tropical Atlantic, ridging stemming from the 1032 mb Azores high
prevails. Moderate to fresh trades and 6-8 ft seas are prevalent
in an area from 14-26N between 35-55W, confirmed by recent
scatterometer and altimeter data. Similar conditions are ongoing
across areas N of 18N and E of 30W. The remainder of the Atlantic
is seeing moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the 
weather pattern through the period, supporting mostly gentle to 
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas over the region. The 
northern portion of a tropical wave may bring fresh to locally 
strong east to southeast winds and rough seas north of the Leeward
Islands Fri through Sat night, then to the waters north of 
Hispaniola and east of the southern Bahamas through early next 
week. 

$$
Adams