814 
AXNT20 KNHC 280550
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed May 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 49W from 03N to 14N moving 
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
associated with this wave is observed from 04N to 14N between 44W
and 53W.

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Its axis
is along 75W, S of Haiti to northern Colombia. The wave is moving
W at 10 to 15 kt. The wave appears to enhance convection over 
northern Colombia, western Venezuela, as well as the north-central
Caribbean including portions of Haiti.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues
SW to near 07N22W. The ITCZ continues from 07N22W to 05N46W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 11N E of 15W to the 
coast of Africa, and from 05N to 09N between 30W and 43W.

The East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far SW 
Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the far SW
Caribbean S of 11N.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Two surface troughs are analyzed over the Gulf: one in the NW
Gulf, and the other along the western coast of the Yucatan 
Peninsula. Convergent winds around these features, as well as
winds due to ridging extending into the basin, support scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection over portions of the Gulf
S of 24N and W of 91W. More diurnally-driven convection is seen
lifting northward off the W coast of Cuba. Recent scatterometer
data indicate moderate to fresh E winds across portions of the
Gulf S of 25N and W of 87W, with moderate or weaker winds
elsewhere. Seas are 3-6 ft across areas W of 87W, with seas of 
1-3 ft to the E of 87W.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain across the NE Gulf 
through Thu. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and 
lower pressure over Mexico will support moderate to fresh SE winds
across the western half of the Gulf. Fresh to strong NE to E 
winds will pulse along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula 
each afternoon and evening through Thu night as a trough develops 
inland daily and then drifts westward to the Bay of Campeche at 
night. Smoke from agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is 
expected to maintain hazy sky conditions across the Bay of 
Campeche and western Gulf through the end of the week. A weak cold
front is expected to move into the northern Gulf later this week.
The front will stall from central Florida to Texas during the 
weekend where it will gradually dissipate. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A ridge persists N of the area. The pressure gradient between 
this ridge and the Colombian Low is supporting fresh to strong E
winds over the south-central Caribbean, as well as in the Gulf of
Honduras. Moderate to fresh E winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 
in the 7 to 9 ft range over the south-central Caribbean, and 5 to 
7 ft elsewhere S of 18N and E of 83W. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted 
over the NW Caribbean with the exception of 5 to 7 ft in the Gulf 
of Honduras. Elsewhere, shallow moisture, embedded in the trade 
wind flow is moving across the basin producing isolated to 
scattered passing showers across the central and eastern Caribbean
E of 74W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the region and the Colombian low will support fresh to 
strong NE to E winds and rough seas to 10 ft in the central, and 
in portions of the southwestern Caribbean through Sun night. 
Moderate to fresh trades are forecast for the remainder of the 
basin, except for pulsing fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of 
Honduras at night through Fri. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1030 mb located in the vicinity of the Azores 
dominates the Atlantic forecast waters, with its associated ridge
extending SW toward the Bahamas and Florida. Light to gentle 
winds are along the ridge axis, with gentle to moderate E winds 
elsewhere N of 20N and W of 30W. South of 20N and W of 30W, 
moderate to fresh E winds are noted. Seas are in the 3 to 6 ft 
range N of 20N, and 6 to 8 ft S of 20N. Farther E, the pressure 
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over W Africa is 
resulting in fresh to strong N to NE winds in a region from the 
Cabo Verde Islands to the Canary Islands and points eastward. Seas
are 6-8 ft in this region.

For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure ridging will
will persist roughly along 28N through Thu night, then shift 
east- southeastward through the upcoming weekend as the front 
approaches the U.S. southeastern coast. Moderate to fresh SW winds
are forecast across the northeast Florida offshore waters Thu 
night ahead of the cold front expected to emerge off the northern 
Florida coast Fri night. The front will stall from near 31N74W to 
northeast Florida by Sat evening before dissipating late Sun. 
Locally strong SW winds are forecast ahead of the front Fri night 
into Sat. The pressure gradient between the ridge and relatively 
lower pressure south of the basin will support moderate to fresh 
winds south of 25N.

$$
Adams