000
AXNT20 KNHC 042341
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Jun 5 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Agadir Gale Warning: Gale force NE winds will occur this evening 
over the waters between Morocco and the Canary Islands, with a 
Gale Warning in effect through 05/00 UTC for Meteo-France's Agadir
zone. Seas of 8-12 ft are also analyzed in this area.

For more information, please refer to the warning issued by 
Meteo-France at wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near 
30W, south of 13N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 250 NM of the
wave axis. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Africa near 12N17W and continues southwestward to 08N19W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N19W to 05N28W, and resumes from 03N31W to 02N40W.
No significant convection is occurring along these features.

The East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far SW 
Caribbean. Scattered strong convection is observed in the far SW 
Caribbean generally S of 13N.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough extends from the Florida Panhandle southwestward
to 27N90W, and a second trough is noted from the central Bay of 
Campeche to 24N91W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in 
the eastern Gulf east of 86W, with locally strong convection noted
through the Florida Straits. Fresh to locally strong S winds and 
seas of 4-7 ft are noted in this region. Elsewhere, numerous 
moderate to strong convection is moving westward off the Yucatan 
Peninsula into the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gusty winds and 
rapidly building seas are likely near convection. Away from the 
convection, fresh to strong E to SE winds are noted north of the 
peninsula. The remainder of the Gulf is seeing moderate or weaker 
SE winds and seas of 1-4 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected 
each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into
the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves 
westward. Expect moderate to fresh SE winds across the western and
south-central Gulf through early Sun, then again late Sun night 
into early Mon between a trough over northern Mexico and high 
pressure over the Carolinas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low is leading to scattered strong convection 
across the NW Caribbean, generally N of 18N to the Yucatan 
Channel and W of 85W. The pressure gradient between a 1026 mb 
high over the western Atlantic and the Colombian low is supporting
fresh to strong winds over the central and NW Caribbean, and
near-gale force winds in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh
trades prevail elsewhere across the basin. Seas are in the 8-10 
ft range in the central Caribbean, and 4-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough 
seas across most of the basin will diminish some on Sat, then 
begin to increase Sat night into early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
a Gale Warning off the coast of Morocco.

A cold front extends from 31N58W to 28N67W to 29N71W where it 
becomes a stationary front, which then extends to 31N81W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed off the coast of
northern Florida, and widely scattered showers are noted along and
to the south and east of the cold front. Farther east, a surface 
trough extends from 31N54W to 24N60W, and mainly gentle to locally
moderate S to SE winds prevail near this feature. Another trough 
is analyzed from 26N30W to 17N31W, with showers observed near the
north end of the trough axis.

Outside of convection, much of the Atlantic is under the 
influence of ridging stemming from a 1029 mb high centered near 
39N37W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower 
pressures over northern Africa supports fresh to strong NE winds 
and 6-8 ft seas off the NW coast of Africa, with local gales 
occurring over the waters between Morocco and the Canary Islands. 
Moderate to fresh trades and 5-7 ft seas prevail across much of 
the Atlantic south of 20N, as well as areas north of 20N and E of 
50W. Locally strong E winds are noted to the north of the Greater 
Antilles. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 3-5 ft seas 
prevail. 

Recent satellite imagery also indicates a large plume of Saharan
Dust emerging off the coast of Africa. Dust concentration is
highest generally between 09N and 22N and E of 29W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front SE of Bermuda will 
slowly move eastward across the NE forecast waters through late 
this week. A surface trough along the southeastern U.S. coast in 
combination with a moisture laden atmosphere will continue to 
result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms offshore
Florida over the next couple of days. Some of this activity may 
produce strong gusty winds, rough seas and heavy rain reducing 
visibility. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate the weather 
pattern across the region. A tight pressure gradient will lead to 
fresh to strong winds pulsing nightly offshore Hispaniola through 
Fri.

$$
ADAMS