000
AXNT20 KNHC 202255
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Aug 21 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W-34W, south of 22N,
moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderated isolated
strong convection is present from 08N to 13N and between 27W and 
32W. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W, south of 18N, 
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed from 08N to 13.5N and between 40W and 49W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 69W, south of 19N, moving 
westward at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated clusters of moderate convection
are noted from 10N to 13N between 63W and 68W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W, south of 20N, 
moving westward at around 15 kt. Associated convection is limited
over Central America, while area Caribbean waters are rain free.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16.5W and continues southwestward to 11.5N26W 
and to 10.5N48W. The ITCZ extends from 10.5N48W to 11N61W. 
Outside of convection associated with tropical wave, scattered 
moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 16N and east of 25W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere
from 07.5N to 13.5N between 27W and 51W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A deep layered upper level low over N Florida extends into the far
NW Caribbean and is supporting scattered clusters of moderate to
strong convection across the Florida Panhandle to extreme 
southern Mississippi and the nearshore waters, as well as across 
interior and eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula. Scattered 
showers and a few thunderstorms dots the waters offshore of SE 
Louisiana. At the surface, 1019 mb high pressure centered near 
25N88W dominates the basin with light to gentle anticyclonic 
winds, strongest offshore of the Florida Panhandle and the SW 
Gulf. Seas are generally 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure centered over the
central Gulf will prevail over the basin through early next week.
This weak pressure pattern will support mostly gentle to moderate
winds and slight to locally moderate seas across much of the 
basin. A surface trough over the Yucatan will generate fresh to 
locally strong winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in 
the early evenings. These winds will spread westward away from the
peninsula at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Tropical Waves section above for information on limited 
convection across the basin.

The pressure gradient between weak high pressure centered SW of
Bermuda and low pressure over northern Colombia is supporting 
fresh to strong trades over the south- central basin between 65W
and 78W, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except gentle 
over the NW basin. Seas are moderate, except 7 to 8 ft in the 
south-central portion, and slight in the NW. Saharan Air across
most of the basin is aiding in limiting convection.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the Caribbean will force
fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the south-
central Caribbean through much of the forecast period. Moderate to
fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail over the north-
central and eastern Caribbean through the weekend and into early 
next week, and may increase in coverage over the tropical 
Atlantic and eastern Caribbean starting Sun night as a tropical 
wave moves across those waters. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter 
winds and slight to moderate seas are expected. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Tropical Waves section for information on convection in deep
tropics. 

A stationary frontal trough enters the tropical Atlantic near 
31N50W and continues southwestward to 27N68W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted N of 26N between 46W and 57W,
while scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough between 
57W and 68W. The rest of the basin remains under the influence of 
subtropical ridging, supporting moderate or weaker winds and seas,
except for a belt of moderate to fresh trades between 11N and 
21N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Fresh to locally strong N to NE 
wind prevail across the northeastern waters from the Canary 
Islands southward to 19N and E of 26W. Seas there are 5 to 8 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and a few 
thunderstorms will persist this evening between the northern 
Bahamas and Bermuda, and along a trough extending from 29N55W to 
27N70W. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will support mostly 
light to gentle winds over most of the waters north of 23N going 
into early next week. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh trades 
are expected south of about 23N, especially off northern 
Hispaniola through the period. 

$$
Stripling