000
AXNT20 KNHC 280504
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Aug 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Dolly is centered near 13.8N 42.3W at 28/0300 UTC
or 1140 nm E of the Leeward Islands, moving W at 20 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 12 
ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring
within 90 NM of the center in the northern semicircle. A fast 
westward motion is expected to continue for the next couple of 
days. On the forecast track, this system should be nearing the 
Leeward Islands this weekend. Little change in strength is likely 
during the next 48 hours, and Dolly is forecast to degenerate into
a tropical wave before it reaches the Leeward Islands. Heavy rain
from Dolly could affect the Leeward Islands late Saturday into 
Sunday, with rainfall moving into the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico 
and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This heavy rain may produce 
flash flooding within areas of higher terrain of the Leeward 
Islands. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the 
National Hurricane Center - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Dolly
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov 
for more details.

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the 
subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will 
support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas to 
locally very rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through 
early next week. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight off 
Colombia. The ASCAT scatterometer passes around 0130 UTC showed
peak winds of near gale at 12N75W. Please refer to the latest 
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 25W, south of
20N over the Cabo Verde Islands while moving westward at about 15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N-13N between
24W-29W. 

A new tropical wave was introduced in Atlantic approaching the
Lesser Antilles along 57W south of 20N. It is likely moving
westward around 15 kt. No deep convection is noted in association
with this system.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean along 71W, south of
19N from Hispaniola to Venezuela. It is quickly moving westward 
at around 20 kt. No significant convection is observed with this 
wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits West Africa from the Senegal coast near
14N17W and extends southwestward to 10N24W. The ITCZ starts at
09N36W to 07N58W along the coast of Guyana. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 09N-13N between 24W-29W. 
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak 1015 mb high is centered over the central Gulf near 25N89W.
Winds across the Gulf are moderate or weaker with seas 1-3 ft.
Isolated moderate convection is noted north of 24N east of 90W.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf
waters through the next several days, supporting moderate or 
lighter winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to 
locally strong with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the 
evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the 
peninsula each night. A frontal boundary will meander near the 
northern Gulf waters during the next few days producing scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Mariners can expect gusty 
winds and higher seas associated with these storms.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the 
Gale Warning in effect for the waters off Colombia.

Other than the gale winds just north of Colombia for a few more
hours, fresh to near gale trades are occurring over the central
Caribbean with seas 6-11 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or
weaker with seas 3-5 ft. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring south of 12N west of 80W, associated with the eastern
extent of the northeast Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between the 
subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will 
support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas to 
locally very rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through 
early next week. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight off 
Colombia. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong in the 
Windward Passage at night. Tropical Storm Dolly is near 13.8N 
42.3W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving west at 20 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central 
pressure is 1007 mb. Dolly will move to 14.3N 45.7W Fri morning, 
15.2N 50.2W Fri evening, 16.0N 54.7W Sat morning, become post- 
tropical and move to 16.7N 59.0W Sat evening, weaken to a remnant 
low near 17.0N 63.0W Sun morning, and dissipate Sun evening. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
the Tropical Storm Dolly.

Aside from the winds associated with Tropical Storm Dolly, the
trades are moderate or weaker across the tropical North Atlantic
except for fresh to locally strong N along Western Sahara and
Mauritania. Seas are 3-7 ft across forecast waters. A weak surface
trough extends from 28N67W to 31N65W and is associated with
isolated moderate convection north of 22N between 61W-70W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will dominate
the SW N Atlantic waters over the next several days supporting 
mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds
will pulse to fresh to locally strong off northern Hispaniola at 
night. Tropical Storm Dolly is near 13.8N 42.3W at 11 PM EDT, and 
is moving west at 20 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with 
gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Dolly
will move to 14.3N 45.7W Fri morning, 15.2N 50.2W Fri evening, 
16.0N 54.7W Sat morning, become post-tropical and move to 16.7N 
59.0W Sat evening, weaken to a remnant low near 17.0N 63.0W Sun 
morning, and dissipate Sun evening.

$$
Landsea/Delgado