000
AXNT20 KNHC 081616
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Aug 8 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1024 mb 
Bermuda High and relatively lower pressure in northern South 
America will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the 
south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean through next week,
with gale-force winds occurring again tonight offshore of Colombia.
The ridge N of the region will gradually shift southward to along
28N through Tue and maintain strong to near gale-force winds 
offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night. Seas 
will build into the 12 to 13 ft range during the time of the 
gale-force winds. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands, with axis 
near 29W from 06N to 19N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is where the wave meets the monsoon trough.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is behind the
wave axis covering the waters from 07N to 13N between 17W and 
25W. 

The tropical wave previously located along 47W is relocated farther
E near 40W based on the tropical wave diagnostic, satellite imagery
and scatterometer data. satellite imagery show a broad cyclonic 
circulation near the northern end of the wave axis. Scattered moderate 
convection is also where the wave meets the monsoon trough.

A tropical wave is analyzed east of the Lesser Antilles along 59W/60W,
extending from 05N to 20N, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted near the wave axis. 

Looking ahead, a tropical wave is expected to move off the west 
coast of Africa on Tuesday. Some development of this system will 
be possible during the middle to latter part of next week while it
moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance
of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal south of Dakar near 14N17W and continues westward to near
11N38W. The ITCZ extends from 11N41W to 10N54W to 11N58W. Most of
the convective activity across the area is related to the tropical
waves. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1024 mb high pressure located just NW of Bermuda extends a ridge
across the SE of the United States into the Gulf region. A surface
trough has moved westward across Florida, and now extends from
northern Florida to near 25N85W. This pattern is supporting gentle
to moderate E to SE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas across the basin, 
except for moderate NE winds across the eastern Bay of Campeche. 
Showers and thunderstorms continue to dot the Gulf waters, more
concentrated from 23N to 27N between 87W and 94W. A diffluent
pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity.
 
For the forecast, the surface trough extending into the eastern 
Gulf will support scattered showers and thunderstorms through this
afternoon as the trough moves inland. Similar activity is expected
in the Bay of Campeche and SW Gulf. Otherwise, a surface ridge 
will dominate most of the basin through late Tue. This will support
gentle to moderate E to SE winds north of 24N with slight seas. 
Pulses of fresh winds will occur north and west of the Yucatan 
Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night as a
diurnal surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward
across the SW Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect
for the waters N of Colombia. 

The pressure gradient between a 1024 mb high pressure located NW 
of Bermuda near 33N68W and the Colombian low continues to support
fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean. Seas are
8 to 12 ft across much of this area. Buoy 42058 located near
14N76W is reporting seas of 10 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are 
over the E Caribbean while gentle to moderate E winds are observed
elsewhere. Seas are moderate with these winds. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are between Cuba and Jamaica, across the Cayman
Islands and regional waters, and south of western Cuba, including
the Yucatan Channel. 

For the forecast, the pressure between a 1024 mb Bermuda High
and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will 
continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central 
and portions of the SW basin through next week, with gale-force 
winds occurring again tonight offshore of Colombia. The ridge N 
of the region will gradually shift southward to along 28N through
Tue and maintain strong to near gale-force winds offshore Colombia
and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night. Winds will pulse up to 
fresh to locally strong speeds during the evenings and nights in 
the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage through the forecast 
period. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail 
elsewhere. The Atlantic ridge looks to shift farther southward 
later next week, which may act to increase easterly trade winds 
again across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the Atlantic
waters north of the Bahamas and W of 75W, following a surface 
trough currently located over northern Florida and the eastern 
Gulf of America. A broad ridge, centered on a 1024 mb high 
pressure located just NW of Bermuda, dominates the western 
Atlantic supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 4
to 6 ft with the exception of moderate to locally fresh winds 
offshore Hispaniola to about 22N. An Azores High of 1024 mb 
dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters producing 
fresh to strong NE winds between the Canary Islands and offshore 
Western Sahara, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Saharan air and dust 
covers much of the Atlantic north of 12N and east of 60W, and most
of the east and central Caribbean based on the Saharan Air Layer 
(SAL) Tracking Product from CIMSS.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough extending across
northern Florida will shift NW and further inland today. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms occurring E of the trough to about 75W 
will shift northwestward today, then persist N of 30N through Sun.
Otherwise, a 1024 mb Bermuda High and an attendant ridge will 
shift slightly southward to along 28N through Tue. Fresh E winds 
will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the Windward 
Passage through the period, pulsing to strong speeds each evening 
and night. The Atlantic ridge then looks to drop a bit farther 
southward later next week, which may result in stronger easterly 
winds.

$$
GR