000
AXNT20 KNHC 311011
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Jul 31 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge north of the islands and lower pressures in NW
South America will continue to support strong to near gale-force 
winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean during the next 
several days. Winds to gale-force in the offshore waters of 
Colombia will dissipate by 12Z this morning. Seas to around 14 ft
are expected with these winds. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.gov/text/MIAHFSAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern to central Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W, south 
of 20N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is present from 08N to 12N between 37W and 41W.

A tropical wave has been relocated to near 57W, south of 20N and 
moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
occurring from 12N to 15N between 55W and 58W.

An western Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W, south of 20N and
moving quickly westward at around 15-20 kt. Any nearby convection
is currently observed in the far eastern Tropical Pacific.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic from the northern coast of 
Mauritania at 21N17W to 12N44W. The ITCZ extends from 12N44W to 
14N57W. In addition to the convection described in the Tropical 
Waves section above, no convection is noted at this time.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure of 1018 mb is remaining over the central Gulf near 
25N86W within a broad ridge. As a result, gentle to moderate winds
and slight seas prevail across the Gulf. Scattered moderate 
convection is occurring in the far NE Gulf, generated by a frontal
boundary N of the region. Isolated moderate convection is also 
occurring ahead of a surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the Gulf region promoting gentle to
moderate winds for the next several days. The exception will be
fresh NE winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula
nightly into the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue over the NE Gulf through the weekend as a frontal
boundary remains just N of the area, and a very moist and
unstable airmass prevails over region.  

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

High pressure north of the islands forces fresh to near gale-
force easterly trade winds and rough seas across the central 
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas 
are found elsewhere from 11N to 18N. Across the remainder of the 
basin, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 
prevail. Some convection is present near eastern Honduras and 
Nicaragua due to the proximity of a tropical wave and lower to mid
level support.

For the forecast, elsewhere outside of the Gale Warning area, 
fresh to near-gale trades will continue to expand in coverage 
across the central Caribbean through this morning as the pressure 
gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and low pressure in 
northern Colombian tightens. Fresh trades will continue elsewhere
south S of about 18N through the rest of the forecast period. 
Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight, 
then to fresh speeds for the remainder of the period. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal boundary is just north of the discussion waters. 
Associated scattered moderate isolated strong convection is north 
of 27N and west of 70W. Fresh to near gale force SW winds and 5 
to 9 ft seas are in this region as well, highest winds and seas in
areas of convection. In the central Atlantic, a surface trough is
analyzed from 29N55W to 21N60W. Upper level divergence in the 
same region as this trough is leading to scattered showers and 
thunderstorms generally from 20N to 30N between 50W and 60W. 
Otherwise, a broad subtropical ridge continues to dominate much of
the tropical Atlantic waters. Moderate to fresh trades are noted 
north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ to 20N, except fresh to 
strong N to NE winds from offshore Africa to the Cabo Verde 
Islands, as well as along the northern coast of Hispaniola and 
immediately east of the Lesser Antilles. Seas are 6 to 9 ft across
the areas of fresh to strong winds. Moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas dominate the remainder of the tropical Atlantic 
waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface ridge across the west 
and central Atlantic will change little through Sat night before 
it shifts northward to near 28N into early next week. The gradient
between the ridge and a frontal boundary just NW of the forecast 
waters will continue to support fresh to strong SW winds along 
with scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 26N and west of 
70W for the rest of the week and into the weekend. Fresh to strong
trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night and into the 
mornings through the upcoming weekend. 

$$
ERA