000
AXNT20 KNHC 142243
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Aug 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Tonight the pressure gradient will 
tighten between the Bermuda High sitting anomalously equatorward 
at 27N60W and the Colombian Low. This will accelerate winds in 
the south-central Caribbean, with winds reaching to gale-force 
off Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela tonight and tomorrow
morning . Very rough seas to near 15 ft will build near and 
downwind of these gales in the southwest Caribbean tonight. Please
see the latest NWS Offshore Zone Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 20W from 05N to 20N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is seen
from 08N-12N and east of 27W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave axis lies along 35W, from 05N to
20N, moving west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is from 08N-13N between 37W-43W. 
While environmental conditions are conducive for some 
development over the next few days, the system - denoted as Invest
AL94 - could encounter strong upper-level winds next week, 
decreasing its chances for development. There is a low chance for 
tropical development of this system in the next 48 hours, and a 
medium chance for development in the next 7 days.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave has been analyzed along 56W
from 06N to 20N, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 09N-15N
between 53W-61W. This system - denoted as Invest AL92 - is moving
into a region of increasing upper-level winds and dry air, and 
the potential of development continues to decrease. Even though 
development is highly unlikely, strong gusty winds and areas of 
heavy rain are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles 
tonight and on Saturday. There is a low chance for tropical 
development of this system both in the next 48 hours and the next 
7 days.

The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 78W, moving 
westward at about 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is seen 
with this wave. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 22N17W and extends 
southwestward to 10N38W to 12N52W and then to 09N56W. Convection
is discussed in the Tropical Waves section above. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1022 mb high is centered over the northern Gulf, near 28N89W,
leading toward gentle to moderate winds prevailing across the
forecast waters. Seas are 1-4 ft. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 60 NM of a surface trough extending from 24N90W to 
28N82W.

High pressure prevails over the northern Gulf waters, anchored by
a 1020 mb high near 27N86W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas
prevail across the NE Gulf in the vicinity of the high center. 
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds associated with a surface trough 
are ongoing over the SW Gulf waters along with moderate seas to 6 
ft. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight seas, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, a high pressure center will remain over the 
north- central Gulf this weekend, then moves SE while weakening 
some by Mon. This pattern will produce mostly gentle to moderate E
to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of fresh winds 
occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay
of Campeche each evening and night, as a surface trough migrates 
from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to 
moderate seas are expected through the forecast period. Looking 
ahead, by midweek next week winds may increase to fresh speeds 
over the NW and west-central Gulf as the pressure gradient 
tightens between the high pressure and lower pressures over north-
central Mexico.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning 
in effect for the south-central basin effective tonight.

The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and 
the Colombian low is supporting fresh to near gale-force trades
accompanied by seas 7-11 ft over the central Caribbean waters. 
Fresh to strong trade winds and moderate seas are occurring over 
the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the 
remaining waters with seas 3-6 ft. Isolated moderate deep
convection is occurring north of 16N west of 81W in the NW
Caribbean.

For the forecast, a tropical wave, with axis along 78W, combined 
with the Bermuda-Azores High located north of the region will 
continue to support fresh to strong winds over most of the east 
and central Caribbean this weekend. Peak winds to minimal gale 
force are expected offshore Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela
tonight and Sat night. A second and stronger tropical wave, with 
axis along 55W, Invest AL92, will impact the Leeward Islands 
tonight and Sat. Even though development is highly unlikely, 
strong gusty winds, rough seas and areas of heavy rain are 
possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and on 
Saturday. These weather conditions are forecast to shift westward 
toward the central and SW Caribbean, including the Greater 
Antilles and the Windward Passage from Sat night through Mon. 
Afterwards, the tropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward the W
Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Ridging associated with the Bermuda and Azores Highs is situated
more equatorward than usual, siting along 28N80W to a 1025 mb high
at 27N60W to 31N43W. Winds associated with a vigorous tropical
wave - Invest AL92 - are fresh to strong from 12N-19N between
51W-63W with seas 7-11 ft. Fresh to strong trades are occurring
just north of Hispaniola with seas 5-7 ft. Along the coast of
Western Sahara and through the Canary Islands, NE winds are fresh
to strong with seas 6-8 ft. Elsewhere the trades are moderate or
weaker with seas 3-6 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High, combined 
with the passage of two tropical through the Caribbean Sea will 
cause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N through Sun 
night. Elsewhere, winds are expected to remain light to moderate 
for the next few days. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will 
slowly push across the northern forecast border east of 70W on 
Sun, causing a wind shift to the NW and then N but with little 
change in wind speeds on Sun and Mon north of 28N. The front will 
stall late on Monday before dissipating by midweek. 

$$
Landsea