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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



819 
AXNT20 KNHC 012230
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
630 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Three has formed over the southeastern Bay of
Campeche near 19.6N 91.2W as of 01/2100 UTC, or about 45 nm west-
southwest of Campeche Mexico, moving WNW at 6 kt. Minimum pressure
is 1007 mb and maximum sustained winds are near 25 kt gusting to 
35 kt. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical 
storm on Tuesday as it moves westward over the southern Bay of 
Campeche. The cyclone is expected to meander over the southern Bay
of Campeche Tuesday through Thursday. SE Mexico has already 
received between 5-7 inches of rain for the previous 24 hours 
ending at 8 AM this morning. TD Three will will act as a focus for
additional heavy rainfall over portions of southern Mexico. See 
the latest NHC forecast advisory at hurricanes.gov for more 
information.

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...

TD Three is part of a larger Central American Gyre circulation 
that has been bringing heavy rainfall and flooding to portions of 
Central America and southern Mexico during the past few days. 
Additional heavy rainfall is expected over portions of southern 
Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize and Honduras. These rains 
could lead to additional life- threatening flash floods and 
mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain over 
portions of southern Mexico, El Salvador and Guatemala. Please 
refer to products issued by your local or national meteorological 
service for additional details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 20W from 15N southward moving
W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm 
of the wave axis from 04N-13N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 44W S of 15N moving W around 
10 kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nm west and 240 nm east 
of the wave axis from 09N-13N. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted within 180 nm east of the wave axis from
05N-08N. The wave will approach the eastern Caribbean late this 
week.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W
to 06N22W. The ITCZ continues from 06N22W to 05N40W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is from 01N-05N east of 15W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N-06N between 24W-
36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on recently developed TD Three. 

Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is seen south
of 22N between 87W-95W, including SE Mexico E of Veracruz and 
Oaxaca. Thise activity is associated to TD Three and the larger 
circulation of the Central American Gyre. Scattered showers and 
tstorms are seen elsewhere over the southern Gulf of Mexico, south
of 25.5N. Scattered moderate convection is also seen over the 
western Gulf N of 25N and west of 90W. Isolated showers cover the 
remainder of the Gulf. Outside of winds associated to TD Three, 
gentle to moderate winds prevail. 

Broad cyclonic flow associated with the Central American Gyre will
prevail over the Gulf of Mexico through the week. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring over much of
Central America and the the Gulf of Honduras in association with 
the Central America Gyre. Isolated trade wind showers are seen 
over the central and eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds
prevail over the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail over the eastern Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds
prevail elsewhere.

A Central American Gyre will persist over northern Central
America and southern Mexico during the entire week leading to
scattered showers and tstorms over the NW Caribbean. Winds and
seas will increase in the Gulf of Honduras and off Yucatan
through Fri as a result. The Bermuda High will rebuild north of
the basin on Tue, which will lead to the development of fresh
winds in the south-central Caribbean Tue through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends over the western Atlantic from 32N64W to 
28N70W to near 27N80W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are
along and south of the front. Fresh to strong winds prevail W of 
the front. A surface trough extends from 30N63W to 24N69W. 
Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is east of the trough
from 25N-30N between 56W- 64W. Farther E, a cold front extends 
from 32N20W to 25N33W. A surface trough is from 25N33W to 29N42W. 
Isolated showers are near the front and trough.

The cold front extending from near 32N64W southwestward to 28N70W
to near 27N80W will stall along 25N by Tue afternoon and 
dissipate by Wed. High pressure building in the wake of the front
will support moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N Wed 
through Sat. 

$$
AL/Hagen