000
AXNT20 KNHC 010954
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Aug 1 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 21.5W from 
04N to 20N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is evident from 10N to 17N and E of 25W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W, south of 16N, 
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen
from 06N to 09N between 40W and 49W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 66.5W from Puerto Rico
southward, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is occurring from 15N to 18N between 66W and 70W.

The northern portion of a western Caribbean tropical wave is 
along 87W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No 
significant convection is evident near this tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 22N17W and dives 
southward to a 1010 mb low pres near 16N24W and then continues 
southwestward to 07N50W. No ITCZ is analyzed at this time.
In addition to the convection described in the Tropical Waves
section above, scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N
to 11N between 48W and 53W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The western portion of the subtropical ridge extends into the 
Gulf waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to  
moderate seas. Divergence aloft associated with an upper-level 
trough north of the area is producing a few showers and isolated 
thunderstorms over the NE Gulf waters, mainly along the coast, 
while generally dry conditions are prevalent in the remainder of 
the basin.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the Gulf, promoting gentle to moderate
winds for the next several days. The exception will be fresh E
to NE winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula
nightly through the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue over the NE Gulf through the weekend and into next
week as an upper-level trough and cold front at the surface drop
southward toward the Gulf coast. Moderate to fresh southwest 
winds look to develop ahead of the front over the far northern 
Gulf late this weekend. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge north of the basin forces fresh to strong 
easterly trade winds and rough seas across much of the central 
Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Honduras. The strongest winds 
and highest seas are occurring off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh 
easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern 
Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas 
prevail, except for slight seas in the lee of Cuba. A divergent
pattern aloft supports scattered moderate convection across the
waters near the Windward Passage as well as offshore of SW Cuba
and Jamaica.

For the forecast, rough seas offshore Colombia will gradually subside 
today. A persistent enhanced pressure gradient across the 
Caribbean will favor fresh to strong trades in the central basin 
through this weekend and much of next week. Fresh to strong winds
will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight, then diminish to 
moderate to fresh speeds for the remainder of the period. A 
tropical wave, currently over the eastern Caribbean near 67W, is
accompanied by showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds.
The wave will quickly move westward across the remainder of the 
basin through Mon night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active north of 27N and 
west of 74W. Fresh SW winds are evident in this area, with 5-7 ft
seas. East of the Lesser Antilles, a surface trough is generating
scattered moderate convection along 60W from 15N to 18N. Another
surface trough in the central Atlantic is interacting with a
divergent pattern aloft to produce widely scattered moderate
convection across a large region from 20N to 29N between 52W and
72W. Elsewhere, the remainder of the subtropical and tropical 
Atlantic is influenced by a 1025 mb high pressure area centered 
near 33N50W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E 
winds and 4-7 ft seas across much of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge extending 
from the central Atlantic to the Straits of Florida will lift N to
near 28N by Sun and change little through next week. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and a frontal boundary just NW of the 
forecast waters will continue to support fresh to strong SW winds 
along with scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 26N and 
west of 70W through the weekend. Fresh to strong trades will pulse
just north of Hispaniola at night through the period. 

$$ 
Adams