051 
AXNT20 KNHC 092302
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Jun 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 36W-37W, S of 15N, moving 
west at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the 
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 47W, S of 16N, moving 
westward at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the 
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 59W, S of 18N, moving 
westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 06N to 11N between 53W and 57W.

The axis of a tropical wave previously along 77W has shifted NW
across the Caribbean, and is becoming absorbed in the monsoonal 
circulation across Central America and southeastern Mexico. This
wave has therefore been dropped from the 1800 UTC surface
analysis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 12N16W 
and extends SW to 08N21W. The ITCZ extends from 08N21W to 05.5N36W,
then from 05N38W to 04.5N46W, then from 04.5N48W to 04.5N52W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03.5N to 10N between 
14W and 34W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 02N to 10N between 36W and 59W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge continues from 1022 mb high over Georgia 
southwestward across the northern Gulf. The pressure gradient 
between this ridge and lower pressure around TS Cristina and the 
eastern Pacific monsoon circulation is supporting moderate to 
locally fresh E-SE winds over the waters S of 26NW, while gentle 
to moderate winds prevail N of 26N. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range 
across SW portions and 2-4 ft elsewhere. Scattered moderate 
convection covers the waters from the Yucatan Channel to the 
Florida Panhandle.

For the forecast, a surface ridge across the northern Gulf will 
continue to dominate the region the next few days, supporting 
gentle to moderate east to southeast winds over the eastern Gulf, 
and moderate to fresh winds in the western Gulf through much of 
this week. Slight to moderate seas will also prevail. The 
exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal 
trough will support fresh E winds pulsing to strong speeds during 
the evenings through Wed. A trough or weak low pressure center may
emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche on Thu
through Fri night, accompanied by numerous showers and 
thunderstorms along with fresh to strong winds and building seas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate trade winds prevail across the basin E of 68W, while
moderate to fresh E-SE trades and moderate seas prevail across the 
remaining Caribbean waters. Seas are 3 to 5 ft E of 68W and 4 to 7
ft W of 68W. The interaction of a diffuse tropical wave and upper
level troughing is supporting scattered active convection over 
much of the western waters W of 75W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the western Atlantic
ridge and T.S. Cristina and the Eastern Pacific monsoonal
circulation will strengthen slightly the next few days as high 
pressure moves into the W Atlantic, leading to widespread moderate
to fresh trades with fresh to strong E winds in the central and 
NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. These conditions 
will prevail through the forecast period. In addition, a trough or
weak low pressure center may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula 
into the Bay of Campeche on Thu through Fri night, maintaining a 
tight pressure gradient over the NW Caribbean and the Gulf of 
Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and mostly moderate 
seas will prevail. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 27N72W to eastern Cuba. Another deep
layered trough is analyzed from 31N60W to 23N69W. Scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 300 nm E of the second
trough. A front has become stationary along about 31N to the N 
and NW of these troughs. Gentle to locally moderate NE to E winds 
prevail across most of the area W of the second trough, with seas 
4 ft or less. High pressure dominates the remainder of the 
discussion waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1032 mb high centered SW
of the Azores near 36N34W. Moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds,
and slight to moderate seas, are N of 20N and W of 50W. Fresh to 
strong winds are N of 20N and E of 30W, where seas are in the 7-9 
ft range. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas 5 to 8 ft prevail 
elsewhere S of 20N. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a deep layered surface trough 
extending from 31N60W to 23N69W will remain nearly stationary 
through midweek, supporting continued showers and thunderstorms in
the region. A weak front will move across the northern waters 
tonight, then move very slowly or stall on Wed, gradually 
dissipating by Thu. A weak cold front will follow, only reaching 
as far south as about 27N before stalling and moving eastward or 
dissipating. High pressure north of the area and in the wake of 
the front will shift eastward through the end of the week while 
weakening, with the associated ridge extending toward Florida and 
southeastern Georgia. The related pressure gradient between this 
high and lower pressures in the tropics will generally allow for 
gentle to moderate winds N of 20N and moderate to fresh trades S 
of 20N, along with slight to moderate seas. Increasing moisture 
resulting in unsettled weather conditions is likely to impact the 
far western section of the basin during the week. 

$$
Stripling