000
AXNT20 KNHC 212249
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Aug 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 21W/22W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt.
Some cyclonic circulation is noted near 11N21W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N
between 20W and 25W.

A second tropical wave is along n eastern Atlantic tropical wave
has its axis along 43W/44W south of 20N moving westward at 15 to
20 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis.

A third tropical wave has its axis along 54W/55W south of 20N 
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted where the wave meets the ITCZ. 

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean along 77W south of
20N. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. Convection is limited
near the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania
near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 11N42W. The ITCZ extends
from 11N45W to 11N61W. Outside of convection associated with the
tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is from 10N to 14N between 34W and 40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure continues to dominate the Gulf region with a 1021
mb center near 24N92W. This pattern is supporting mainly light 
to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas. The highest seas of 
3 to 4 ft are noted over the Bay of Campeche based on altimeter 
data. Convection has flared-up over parts of Florida, the north- 
central Gulf, and along the coast of Mexico roughly between 
Tuxpan and Veracruz. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to 
induce this convective activity. 

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure centered over 
the central Gulf will prevail into the middle of next week, 
supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to locally 
moderate seas. A surface trough will generate fresh winds north 
and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings. These 
winds will spread westward away from the peninsula at night as 
the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between weak high pressure centered S of 
Bermuda and low pressure over northern Colombia is supporting 
fresh to strong trades over the most of the central Caribbean, 
with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, with the exception of 
gentle winds over the NW part of the basin. Seas are moderate, 
except 7 to 9 ft in the south-central Caribbean and slight seas 
over the northwest Caribbean. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are noted over Cuba. Scattered showers, with
embedded thunderstorms, are seen over the NW Caribbean.
Elsewhere, shallow moisture embedded in the trade winds flow is
moving across the region producing isolated to scattered passing
showers. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient associated with high 
pressure over the western Atlantic and low pressure over Colombia
will continue to sustain fresh to strong trade winds and rough 
seas across the south-central Caribbean through much of the 
forecast period. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will 
prevail over most of the rest of the basin, aside from the 
northwest portion where lesser winds will dominate. A tropical 
wave will move into the far eastern Caribbean early next week, 
enhancing the trade wind flow across those waters. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical wave are moving westward between W Africa and the
Lesser Antilles. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for more
details.

A weak 1018 mb low is about 480 nm east-southeast of Bermuda near
30N56W. A surface trough extends from the low center to 27N60W to
28N66W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active near 
these features. Similar convective activity is observed north of
24N east of 70W. A surface through is analyzed in this area and
extends from 29N74W to 24N80W. A diffluent pattern aloft is also
helping to induce this convection. Elsewhere west of 55W, the 
subtropical ridge dominates, anchored by 1021 mb high pressure 
between Bermuda and the central Bahamas near 25N67W. Fresh E to 
SE winds are funneling along the north coast of Hispaniola south 
of the ridge, supporting 3 to 5 ft seas. The remainder of the 
Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a ridge with 
a 1028 mb high pressure located SW of the Azores near 35N37W. 
This system supports moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 
5 to 7 ft, except fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas
off the coasts of Mauritania and Senegal.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will support
mostly light to gentle winds over most of the waters north of 
23N into early next week. Moderate to fresh trades are expected 
south of about 23N, highest off northern Hispaniola, through the 
period. These trades may pulse to fresh to strong speeds off 
northern Hispaniola at night through most of the forecast period.
Meanwhile, the northern portion of a tropical wave is expected 
to move through the eastern portion of the area early next week 
enhancing the trades some. 

$$
GR