000
AXNT20 KNHC 090442
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Sep 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave along 19W north of 03N is moving into the eastern
Atlantic at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident
from 05N to 17N and  E of 24W. 

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 51W from 02N 
to 18N, moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers
are noted along the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 61W from 19N 
southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 58W and 64W.

A central western tropical wave has its axis near 83W, south of 
19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted along the northern half of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W, and continues
southwestward to 10N32W. The ITCZ continues from 10N32W to 08N48W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 200 nm on
either side of the boundaries and E of 38W.
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends across the eastern waters from Venice,
Florida to south-central Louisiana. Scattered showers are in the 
vicinity of the front. Gentle to moderate winds are active over 
the central and west-central Gulf north of the trough. Light to 
gentle winds are over the SE Gulf. Gentle winds and slight seas 
are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf
through the weekend, producing a weak pressure gradient. This 
will support mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas over 
much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas 
off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a 
diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each 
night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low is centered between Panama and Jamaica, 
supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms over the 
northwest Caribbean between Cuba and Belize. The pressure gradient
between high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian
low is supporting fresh to strong trades along with moderate seas
over the south- central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and 
moderate are over the rest of basin, with the exception of the 
northwestern waters, where light to gentle winds are noted.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge and the
Colombian low will support strong winds, locally to near-gale 
force, through Wed night before diminishing modestly through Fri. 
Rough seas will prevail over these waters with the persistent 
strong winds. Fresh to strong winds will pulse tonight in the 
Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight 
to moderate seas will prevail. Large easterly swell will accompany
a tropical wave into the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Wed 
through Thu morning. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from Bermuda to Fort Pierce Florida. A
pre-frontal trough extends from 29N61W to 20N72W. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms are active along the trough N of 25N
between 53W-66W. The subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of
the basin, anchored by 1027 mb high pressure near 34N33W, and 
extending westward through the northwest Bahamas. This pattern is 
supporting gentle breezes and 3-5 ft seas along the ridge axis 
through the Bahamas, and moderate to fresh NE winds and 6-9 ft 
seas south of the ridge.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will gradually shift 
northeastward and strengthen through mid week. This will cause 
winds to increase slightly S of 21N through Thu. The stationary 
front will linger near 31N through mid week before lifting 
northward. Showers and thunderstorms will remain active across 
these northern waters W of 60W through tonight. 

$$
ERA