000
AXNT20 KNHC 021727
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Jun 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1727 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A frontal boundary extends from 
a 1010 mb low pressure near 30N71W to the northwest Bahamas. The 
low pressure and frontal boundary will continue to move eastward 
and passing Bermuda through this evening. Expect strong SW winds 
ahead of the low pressure and front, with near gale to gale-force 
winds and rough to very rough seas expected southeast of Bermuda 
this afternoon. The front will stall this evening, and winds will 
fall below gale force tonight. 

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 39.5W, south of 16N 
and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. A few showers are noted near 
the trough axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has been analyzed along 50.5W, 
south of 16N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. A few showers are 
noted near the trough axis.

The western Caribbean tropical wave has moved to the EPAC, and 
more information can be found in the TWDEP. 
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues 
southwestward to 03N39W. The ITCZ extends from 03N39W to 05N51W. 
Scattered moderate convection is evident from 03N to 11N and east
of 27W. Similar convection is found from 04N to 08N between 44W 
and 54W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Divergence aloft and tropical moisture support scattered showers 
and thunderstorms across most of the basin. Outside of the
convection, gentle to moderate variable winds along with seas 2 
to 3 ft prevail.
 
For the forecast, a modest surface ridge at the northeastern Gulf
will support gentle to moderate easterly to southerly winds and 
slight seas into Wed. A late-season cold front will enter the 
northeastern Gulf Wed night, then stall from near Punta Gorda, 
Florida to New Orleans, Louisiana through Thu night before 
dissipating Fri. Anticipate fresh to strong E to SE winds and 
rough seas behind this front and also north of the Yucatan 
Peninsula. By Fri night, ridging should rebuild across the central
and northeastern Gulf, resuming gentle to moderate E to SE winds 
and moderate seas for the entire Gulf. An upper-level trough 
across the western Gulf will continue to support showers and 
thunderstorms across the eastern and central Gulf through midweek.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong NE
to E winds over the central Caribbean. Seas within these winds are
7 to 10 ft. This is due to the very tight pressure gradient 
between the expanding 1035 mb high pressure system south of the 
Azores and very low pressures in northern Colombia. Fresh to 
locally strong easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in the
eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or 
lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the tight gradient between the Atlantic ridge 
and Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and 
moderate to rough seas at the central and part of the southwestern
basin through Wed morning. Winds and seas will diminish slightly 
starting late Wed as the ridge north of the basin weakens. Fresh 
to strong winds with moderate seas are expected at the Gulf of 
Honduras through Fri night. Afterward, gentle to moderate E to SE 
winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail for most the of 
the Caribbean Sea through the end of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning for
waters southeast of Bermuda today.

A frontal boundary extends from a 1010 mb low pressure near 
30N71W to the northwest Bahamas. A warm front extends from the low
to 30N65W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
present south of the frontal boundary north of 24N and between 68W
and 78W. Moderate to locally strong E to SE winds and seas of 5-8
ft are occurring north of 26N and east of 71W. To the east, a 
stationary front extends from 31N60W to the warm front. Fresh to 
strong S-SW winds and seas of 6-9 ft are found south of the front 
to 26N and between 58W and 64W. Elsewhere west of 71W, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad 
subtropical ridge anchored by a 1035 mb high pressure and near 
Morocco. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned low pressure and
frontal boundary will continue to move eastward and passing 
Bermuda through this evening. Expect strong SW winds ahead of the 
low pressure and front, with near gale to gale-force winds and 
rough to very rough seas expected southeast of Bermuda this 
afternoon. The front will stall from Bermuda to the northern 
Bahamas this evening, ahead of a reinforcing front moving into the
waters off northeast Florida accompanied by strong to near-gale 
force winds and rough seas. Looking ahead, winds and seas will 
diminish into Fri after the fronts merge, then weaken in place 
from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas with broad high pressure 
building off the Carolinas. Farther south, strong winds may pulse 
off the northern coast of Hispaniola tonight. 


$$
KRV