000
AXNT20 KNHC 291708
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Aug 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall: A strong tropical wave, remnants of Dolly, 
is along 55.5W, south of 21N, moving westward at 20 to 25 kt. 
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring from 15.5N to 
21N and between 53W and 57W. Scattered showers are also found
from 09N to 12N between 51W and 56W. This tropical wave will 
cross the northern Leeward Islands tonight, the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico Sun and Sun night, then Hispaniola Mon. This wave 
will bring strong to near gale force winds, rough seas, and 
thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall to nearby waters S of 
23N. Islands local topography could enhance orographic lift and 
support additional rainfall, varying by island. Peak rainfall 
rates are expected from Sat night through Sun. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and your local
  weather service office for additional information. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 33W, south of 18N, moving westward at 
around 15 kt. No significant convection is noted near this wave. 

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean, along 68.5W, south
of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 13N to 18N between 67W and 70W.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean, along 82W, south 
of 21N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms are evident in SW Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16.5W to 07N40W. 
The ITCZ extends from 07N40W to 10N52W. Isolated to scattered 
moderate convection is present near the monsoon trough in the 
eastern Atlantic and near the ITCZ.
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak low pressure system in the northern Gulf waters and
divergence aloft are producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over much of the basin east of 90W. Light to gentle
variable winds prevail across the Gulf waters, except for locally
moderate E winds over the Bay of Campeche. Seas 1 to 3 ft prevail
across the basin. 

For the forecast, weak low pressure about 100 nm offshore Mobile 
Bay will continue to produce scattered thunderstorms with gusty 
winds and locally higher seas as it drifts west over the next few 
days. This low has a low chance of tropical development over the 
next 7 days. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will support 
mainly light to gentle winds and slight seas into into late next 
week. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off western 
Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving
west off the peninsula each night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for rainfall
information associated to a strong tropical wave that will cross 
the northern Leeward Islands tonight. 

High pressure north of the area forces fresh to locally strong 
easterly winds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean. 
Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in 
the north-central and eastern Caribbean and also in the Windward 
Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast, a strong tropical wave will cross the northern 
Leeward Islands tonight, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sun 
and Sun night, then Hispaniola Mon. This wave will bring strong to
near gale force winds, rough seas, and thunderstorms with locally
heavy rainfall to nearby waters. Otherwise, the pressure gradient
between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressure over 
South America will support strong trades and rough seas over the 
south- central Caribbean this weekend. These winds will diminish 
slightly early next week as the aforementioned tropical wave 
disrupts the pressure gradient.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for 
information about a strong tropical wave moving across the 
Atlantic. 

Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are found across 
the waters between Bermuda and the Bahamas, particularly west of 
68W. Converging middle level winds and a diffluent pattern aloft 
are helping to induce this convective activity. 

A ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters, 
anchored on a pair of surface highs north of our waters. The ridge
supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate 
seas across much of the forecast waters south of 26N and west of 
35W. Farther east, fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough 
seas prevail N of 21N and E of 23N to the coast of west Africa, 
including the Canary Islands. Primarily moderate winds and 
moderate seas prevail elsewhere to 35W, under the influence of the
ridge. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a strong tropical wave will cross 
the northern Leeward Islands tonight, the Virgin Islands and 
Puerto Rico Sun and Sun night, then Hispaniola Mon. This wave will
bring strong to near gale force winds, rough seas, and 
thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall to nearby waters S of 
23N. Elsewhere, deep tropical moisture and an upper-level trough 
will aide in scattered moderate convection W of 70W into early 
next week. At the surface, the subtropical ridge will dominate the
basin supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate 
seas in the remainder of the forecast waters. However, winds will 
pulse to locally strong off northern Hispaniola through Sun night.


$$
KRV