000
AXNT20 KNHC 111813
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Jun 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Heavy rainfall across the Yucatan peninsula and northern Belize: 
Broad low pressure is expected to develop over northern Central
America and southern Mexico over the next couple of days. The
combination of sustained upper-level divergence east of an upper
low that is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and a
tropical wave moving through the Yucatan Peninsula while abundant
deep tropical moisture remains in place will provide the potential
for heavy rainfall over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula into Sat.
Increasing deep convection is presently over the eastern section
of the Yucatan Peninsula and over eastern Belize. The heaviest 
rainfall may be as high as 6 to 8 inches over this 48 hour period,
primarily across northern Belize and southern part of the Mexican
state of Quintana Roo. Rainfall of up to 2 to 4 inches is 
possible across eastern Campeche and eastern Yucatan states as 
well. Localized flooding is possible. Please refer to local 
meteorological agencies for further guidance.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern tropical wave has its axis along 20W from 02N to
12N, moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
within 60 nm west of the wave from 07N to 10N. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave has is axis near 47.5W from 05N
to 15N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Only isolated showers are 
seen within 60 nm either side of the axis from 05N to 08N.

A tropical wave has entered the eastern Caribbean, with its axis 
near 62W. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm east of the wave 
from 10N to 12N, and within 60 nm west of the wave from 10N to 11N
to 12.5N. Isolated, small showers and thunderstorms are ahead of 
the wave from 13N to 14N between 63W and 65W.

Another eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 67W, 
moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is 
occurring at the present time with this wave.

A tropical wave was added to the 12Z analysis over the Yucatan
Peninsula along a position from 21.5N87W to 18N90W and to 13N92W
as suggested to some extent in long-term satellite imagery and
mildly in model guidance. This feature is one of the factors 
contributing to the heavy rain event described above under the 
Special Features section. Upper-level divergence from an upper-level 
low that is west of the Yucatan Peninsula is helping to sustain 
clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over 
the eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize. Similar 
convection is noted from from 21.5N to 24N between the western tip 
of Cuba and 89W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only 
marginally conducive for development before the system moves inland 
over eastern Mexico late Sat or on Sun.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Africa near 
15N17W and extends southwestward to 08N21W and to 05N30W, where 
it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N35W to 04N42W and to 05N40W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the trough
between 20W-23W, also within 60 nm north of the trough between 
24W-26W, between 27W-30W and also between 34W-38W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is also seen from 04N and 
09N between 11W-18W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the Tropical Waves sections for information on 
convection north of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Weak Atlantic ridging stretches westward from the western 
Atlantic to just inland the northern Gulf coast as an upper-level 
low is identified to be over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Recent 
Ascat satellite data passes indicate mostly gentle to moderate 
east to southeast winds across the basin, except for fresh 
southeast winds over the central portions. Seas are in the 4 to 6 
ft range between the northwest Yucatan Peninsula and the Texas 
coast, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, weak ridging will extend from the western 
Atlantic across the north-central Gulf into early next week. 
Farther south, weak low pressure will develop over southern Mexico
and northern Central America today, then move into the the Bay of
Campeche this evening. The low pressure will then move 
northwestward toward the coast of Tamaulipas state in northeast 
Mexico through Sat night. The gradient between the low pressure 
and the high pressure over the northeast Gulf will support a plume
of fresh to strong southeast winds and moderate to rough seas 
from the northwest Yucatan peninsula to the coast of Texas through
at least Sat night. The low pressure will be accompanied by 
numerous showers and thunderstorms across the western Gulf. Winds 
and seas will diminish early next week after the low pressure 
moves inland and weakens. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Feature section regarding the potential for
heavy rainfall and localized flooding in the Yucatan peninsula 
and in northern Belize into Sat.

The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and
relatively lower pressure in the western Caribbean is generally 
allowing for fresh to strong southeast winds to exist in the
northwestern part of the sea. Seas with these winds are 6 to 9 ft
in southeast swell. The gradient between the same high pressure 
and relatively lower pressure in northern Colombia is maintaining 
fresh to strong trades in the south-central section of the basin 
along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Latest scatterometer satellite data 
passes indicate mostly gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Seas 
are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. 
 
Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are 
just inland and along the coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula and 
Belize. This activity is to the east of a tropical wave that is over 
the Yucatan Peninsula.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1016 mb low is analyzed near 26N61W, with a trough extending 
south-southwestward to 23N63W and to 22N70W. Another trough 
extends from the low to 29N60W while a stationary front is 
anaylzed from 29N60W to 29N61W, where it transitions to a cold 
front to northeast of the area at 31N47W. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are seen from 25N to 28N between 53W and 58W. 
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere north of 22N 
between 50W and 65W. Farther north, a surface ridge extends from 
1025 mb high pressure center that is northeast of Bermuda near 
35N58W west-southwestward to across northern Florida. Farther east, 
another surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure center 
near the Azores Islands southwestward to 31N31W and continues to 
near 25N55W. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes reveal light 
to gentle winds west of and along the ridge axis. Seas are 4 to 5 ft 
over these waters. The scatterometer satellite data passes reveal 
mostly moderate to fresh northeast winds south of the ridge axis, 
where seas are 6 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned 1016 mb low 
centered near 26N61W will dissipate as it moves northeast of the 
area through this evening. A ridge will extend westward along 
roughly 29N and remain in place through early next week. This 
pattern will support gentle to moderate breezes across the basin, 
except moderate to fresh winds off Hispaniola starting Fri night. 

$$
Aguirre