664 
AXNT20 KNHC 212300
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri May 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A eastern Atlantic is analyzed near 37W, south of 10N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is found near the
wave axis.

An Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 75W, south of 15N 
based on tropical wave diagnostics, moving westward near 10 kt. 
This wave is currently interacting with lower pressures near 
Colombia and the eastern end of the Eastern Pacific Monsoon 
Trough. Thus, scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong 
convection is depicted south of 10N and over land behind the wave.
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic the coast near 12.5N16.5W, 
then curves southwestward to near 03N23W. The ITCZ extends from 
03N23W to 00.5N34W. Another portion of the ITCZ then extends from
01N39W to the coast of Brazil at 02N51W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is present south of 06.5N and east of 
27W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 01N to 04N
between 27W and 34W, and south of 08.5N between 44W and 53W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1025 mb high pressure system centered east of Bermuda extends a
ridge into the eastern Gulf waters, supporting moderate or weaker
E to SE winds and seas 2 to 4 ft across the eastern half of the
basin and southwest portions. Numerous showers and thunderstorms 
developed earlier this afternoon about a surface trough now
extending from the southwest Louisiana coast to just offshore of
Tampico Mexico. Areas of heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds
associated with this activity have formed an outflow boundary that
extends from offshore of central Louisiana the 23N96W. Mid-
afternoon satellite scatterometer winds showed strong and gusty
winds to near gale-force between the trough and the outflow
boundary, where seas have to be locally higher. This convection
has since begun to diminish in coverage and intensity. 

For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western 
Atlantic to the northern Gulf will change little during the 
forecast period. The pressure gradient between it and relatively 
lower pressures over Texas and northern Mexico will generally 
maintain a gentle to moderate east to southeast wind flow across 
the basin through the weekend, with the exception of fresh to 
strong winds pulsing off NW Yucatan from the late afternoons and 
into the night time hours. A series of upper-level disturbances 
moving through a very moist and unstable environment are expected 
to keep unsettled weather conditions in the form of large 
thunderstorm complexes, that will be moving ENE across the NW and
west-central Gulf sections during the next few days. Mariners 
transiting through these waters should check the latest forecast 
and weather conditions prior to beginning or continuing their 
transits. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad ridge, centered on a 1025 mb high located east of Bermuda,
extends into the eastern Gulf of America. The resultant pressure
gradient is forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas
of 6-9 ft across the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh 
easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern 
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds 
and slight seas are prevalent. Scattered light to moderate showers
and moving across the northeast Caribbean, as well as NW portions. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the area and relatively lower pressures in northern South
America will support fresh to strong trades over the south- 
central portion of the Caribbean into early next week. These 
trades will continue to bring rough seas to that portion of the 
basin. Fresh to strong trades will also pulse each evening over 
the Gulf of Honduras. Mostly moderate trades will remain elsewhere
through the forecast period. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad middle to upper-level low is situated across the N half of
the Bahamas and adjacent waters between 70W and 80W. This feature 
continues to enhance the shower activity between 69W and 75W. The
rest of the SW North Atlantic, west of 50W, is under the 
influence of a broad subtropical ridge centered east of Bermuda. 
Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted south
of 24N and west of 50W. 

A stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N25W and 
continues southwestward to 24N50W to 27N63W. A few light showers 
are evident ahead of this front. The rest of the central and 
eastern Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge 
anchored by the eastern extension of the 1025 mb high pressure 
east of Bermuda. A moderate pressure gradient between the 
aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in western Africa results
in moderate to fresh northerly winds from 10N to 25N and east of 
30W. Seas there are 4 to 8 ft in NW swell. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the large middle to upper-level low
ENE of the Bahamas will continue to produce scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms from east of the Bahamas to near 71W, 
and southward to the vicinity of the Turks and Caicos through 
early Fri. Some of this activity may contain strong gusty winds 
and heavy rain reducing visibility. The low is forecast to lift N 
of the area by early on Fri evening. Southeast winds will pulse 
fresh to strong speeds north of Hispaniola in the afternoons and 
evenings going into early next week. Otherwise, high pressure 
centered just north of the area will maintain rather quite marine 
conditions through the period. 

$$
Stripling