000
AXNT20 KNHC 191007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue May 19 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W, south of 11N and 
moving westward at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
associated with this wave from 02N to 05N between 24W and 31W. 

An Atlantic tropical wave along 60W is approaching the Windward
Islands S of 13N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted mainly behind this wave, S of 08N between 50W
and 60W. 

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W, moving into
Central America, south of 16N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is impacting waters near Costa Rica
and Panama in association with this wave. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of the 
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, then runs southwestward to 05N19W. The
ITCZ extends from 05N25W to 00N50W. Convection near these features
is primarily associated with the Atlantic tropical waves, 
described in the section above.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends into the
Gulf waters forcing fresh E-SE winds and moderate seas west of a 
line from southern Louisiana to NE Yucatan and also in the Florida
Straits. Elsewhere, mainly moderate E to SE winds and slight to 
moderate seas prevail. Generally dry weather conditions dominate 
the basin, although a cluster of thunderstorms has moved offshore
the Middle Texas coast early this morning.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the western 
Atlantic will extend a ridge into the Gulf through the week. Into 
Wed, expect moderate to fresh SE winds over the western Gulf, 
pulsing to strong each evening offshore the Yucatan Peninsula, due
to the pressure gradient between the high pressure and low 
pressure over Mexico and Texas. Late this week, the pressure 
gradient will relax and even more tranquil marine conditions will 
prevail.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection continues in the Windward Passage
and between Cuba and Jamaica due to upper level divergence. The
other convection in the basin, offshore Central America, is due to
a tropical wave described in the section above. High pressure of
1029 mb centered near Bermuda is aiding in a pressure gradient
that supports strong winds across the central Caribbean, including
the Gulf of Venezuela. Rough seas of up to 11 ft accompany these
winds. Elsewhere, fresh trades and moderate seas prevail, except
for gentle to moderate winds in the Lee of Cuba. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support 
fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean and the Gulf 
of Honduras into Wed night, with moderate to fresh trades across 
the remainder of the forecast waters. Rough seas can be expected 
in the central Caribbean during this time. Large E swell resulting
in rough seas will impact the tropical Atlantic waters into 
tonight, then begin to subside.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Aside from some scattered moderate convection NE of the Bahamas
associated with a weak surface trough, the basin is void of
thunderstorm activity. A cold front has slipped S of 31N, and
extends from 31N45W to 29N60W. Some fresh SW winds are present E
of this boundary to 35W, N of 28N. Otherwise, subtropical ridging
dominates, bringing light to gentle winds and moderate seas N of
23N, with moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas to the south.
E of the Lesser Antilles, decaying easterly swell is leading to
some rough seas, that extend E to 45W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered over the 
central Atlantic will support fresh trade winds N of Hispaniola 
into tonight. A surface trough from near Bermuda to NE of the 
Bahamas will dissipate today, leaving the basin dominated by 
tranquil marine conditions into late this week. 

$$
Konarik