000
AXNT20 KNHC 180410
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon May 18 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0355 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 20W, south of 11N,
moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
south of 07N and between 17W and 25W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 56W, south of 14N, moving
westward around 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near
the trough axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is present
near the trough axis in the Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the border of 
Guinea-Bissau and Guinea, continues southwestward to 04N20W. The
ITCZ extends from 04N20W to 02N35W and to 02N50W. Isolated showers
are evident near the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A tight pressure gradient between a broad subtropical ridge over
the Atlantic and lower pressures over Mexico sustain fresh to
strong E-SE winds and moderate seas over much of the western and
south-central Gulf waters. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail. Fairly tranquil weather
conditions are noted across the basin, except for some showers in
the nearshore waters of western Florida, Veracruz and Tamaulipas.

Agricultural fires in SE Mexico and Central America are causing 
hazy conditions in the western Gulf waters, with the worse 
conditions occurring in the Bay of Campeche. Mariners are advised 
to use caution due to decreased visibilities in these waters.

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will extend
a ridge over and just north of the Gulf into late week. Expect 
moderate to fresh SE winds over the western Gulf early this week 
between the high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico. Also 
expect fresh to strong wind pulses off the northwest Yucatan 
peninsula during the evenings through midweek.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft and diurnal heating sustain a few showers and
isolated thunderstorms over portions of Cuba and Hispaniola. Tight
pressure gradient will continue to support fresh to strong NE to 
E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas at the central Caribbean, and in the 
Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh breezes and moderate seas are
noted in the eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and 
slight to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere. Rough seas 
associated with large E swell impact the water passages of the 
Lesser Antilles

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support 
fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean and the Gulf 
of Honduras through Tue night, with moderate to fresh trades 
across the remainder of the forecast waters. Rough seas can be 
expected in the central Caribbean through Wednesday morning as 
well. Large E swell resulting in rough seas will impact the 
tropical Atlantic waters through Tue, then begin to subside. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends southwestward from 31N59W to 25N71W. 
Coupling with an upper-level trough over the western Atlantic, 
scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 21N and between
65W and 72W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate
seas are found across much of the SW North Atlantic, especially
west of 60W.

The central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by an extensive
subtropical ridge centered near 31N37W. Tight pressure gradient
between this ridge and lower pressures in western Africa support
fresh to strong N-NE winds and rough seas north of 17N and east of
21W. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and rough seas are
found south of 25N and between 21W and 60W. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered over the
central Atlantic will support fresh trade winds and rough seas 
with E swell overnight east of the Leeward Islands. A weak frontal
remnant trough extending from 31N58W to E of the Bahamas will 
dissipate overnight, leaving tranquil marine conditions in place 
through midweek. 

$$
Delgado