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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 211718

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
118 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters near 08N13W to 
03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to the coast of Brazil 
near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm 
of the ITCZ. 


1021 mb surface high is centered near 31N88W. With this, surface
ridging prevails across the basin. Light to gentle winds are noted
near the high center while moderate to locally fresh return flow 
prevails W of 95W. The high pressure will remain across the Gulf 
waters through mid-week before retreating eastward. This will 
enable for the next cold front to move into the NW Gulf on

A thermal surface trough will develop near the NW Yucatan 
Peninsula during the evening hours and drift westward across the 
SW Gulf where it will eventually dissipate during the morning 
hours. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds will accompany this 
trough each night into the early morning hours.


A weakening stationary front extends from central Cuba near 21N78W
to 17N83W. Mainly low clouds with some shower activity are 
associated with this frontal boundary, forecast to dissipate 
later today. Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade 
winds flow are noted elsewhere across the basin. Mainly moderate 
northerly winds follows the front. Moderate to fresh trade winds 
are noted in scatterometer data over the eastern and the south- 
central Caribbean, and also across the waters E of the Lesser 
Antilles. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the 
Caribbean and the Tropical Atlantic, with the exception of fresh 
to strong winds near the coast of Colombia. Trades will slowly 
diminish through Wednesday night, then increasing back slightly 
towards the end of next week.


A stationary front enters the forecast area near 31N72W, then 
continues SW across the central Bahamas into central Cuba.
Scattered showers are noted along the front mainly north of 27N. 
A surface trough is analyzed W of the front, extending from 
30N76W to 26N77W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are ahead of 
the front, while moderate westerlies prevail W of the front and 
trough. The front is expected to gradually dissipate during the
next 24 hours. The remnants of the front will linger along 70W 
through much of the week. 

Farther east, a 1016 mb surface low is centered near 29N46W. Another
weakening front enters the forecast waters from 31N39W to 20N45W 
as a cold front, then continues as a stationary front to 21N56W. 
This system is generating scattered showers and isolated and 
thunderstorms N of 25N between 38W-50W. In addition, this low is 
producing gale force winds just N of the forecast region, and 
fresh to strong northerly winds over the forecast waters N of 27N 
between 40W and 50W based on recent scatterometer data. An 
altimeter pass indicates sea heights of up to 14 ft near the low 
center. The low pressure is forecast to meander near 26N50W over 
the next 24-48 hours. Its associated front will dissipate over 
the next 24 hours. The pressure gradient between the low and high 
pressure to the north will keep an area of fresh to strong winds 
roughly N of 26N between 40W and 60W today and Monday. A surface ridge
dominates the remainder of the basin.

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