724 
AXNT20 KNHC 110859
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Jun 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0850 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical waves is off the coast of West Africa along 18W, S of 
12N. Convection described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section 
below. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 47W, S of 15N, moving west at
10 to 15 kt. Convection described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section 
below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 60W, S of 15N, moving westward
at around 15 kt. Convection described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ 
section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 66W, S of 18N, moving 
westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is depicted at this time in
association to this wave. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 15N17W 
and extends SW to 09N20W to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W 
to 03N40W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is 
noted from 04N to 08N between 06W and 35W. Scattered moderate
convection is also noted from 04N and 06N between 45W and 52W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active along a 
surface trough off the Yucatan Peninsula from 22N90W to 
18.5N93W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are also active over
the loop current near 25N86W. A recent scatterometer satellite 
pass showed fresh to strong SE winds east of the trough to the
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The scatterometer also indicated
moderate to fresh SE winds elsewhere over the western Gulf, and
gentle breezes over the eastern Gulf where weak high pressure is
present. Seas are 4-6 ft between the northwest Yucatan Peninsula
and the Texas coast, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, weak ridging will extend from the western 
Atlantic across the north-central Gulf into early next week. 
Farther south, weak low pressure will develop over southern Mexico
and northern Central America today, then move into the the Bay of
Campeche this evening. The low pressure will then move 
northwestward toward the coast of Tamaulipas state in northeast 
Mexico through Sat night. The gradient between the low pressure 
and the high pressure over the northeast Gulf will support a plume
of fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas from the 
northwest Yucatan peninsula to the coast of Texas through at least
Sat night. The low pressure will be accompanied by numerous 
showers and thunderstorms across the western Gulf. Winds and seas 
will diminish early next week after the low pressure moves inland 
and weakens. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active off
eastern Honduras, under diffluent flow aloft. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are also active along the coast of Belize.
Farther east, a few showers and thunderstorms are active along and
just west of the Windward Islands, between a couple of tropical
waves. Fresh to strong SE winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted over the
northwest Caribbean, and fresh to strong E winds and 6-8 ft seas
are noted over the south-central Caribbean. Moderate E to SE
winds and 4-6 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, a strong ridge across the western Atlantic will
support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate 
to rough seas across the central Caribbean into early next week, 
with the highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh 
to strong SE winds and rough seas will also persist over the 
northwest Caribbean west of 85W through at least Fri night, 
between the ridge and low pressure over northern Central America 
and southern Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active near a
1016 mb low pressure area centered near 26N61W, which is along a
trough extending from 30N54W to 24N65W. Farther north, a surface
ridge extends from 1021 mb high pressure northeast of Bermuda near
35N60W to northeast Florida. Farther east, another surface ridge
extends from 1028 mb high pressure near the Azores Islands to
25N45W. Gentle breezes and 4-5 ft seas are noted west of and along
this ridge, and moderate to fresh NE winds and 6-7 ft seas are
evident south of this ridge.

For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure will dissipate as 
it moves northeast of the area through this evening. A ridge will 
extend westward along roughly 29N and remain in place through 
early next week. This pattern will support gentle to moderate 
breezes across the basin, except moderate to fresh winds off 
Hispaniola starting Fri night.

$$
Christensen