422 
AXNT20 KNHC 132057
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed May 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa
near 07N13W and extends SW to near 05N18W. The ITCZ continues
from 05N18W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 02N to 06N between 10W and 25W, and from 01S to 04N between
33W and 41W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 03N to 08N between 40W and 48W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure dominates the Gulf waters anchored by a 1016 mb 
high centered over the SE Gulf. Light to gentle winds are in the 
vicinity of the high center. Moderate to fresh southerly return 
flow is over the western Gulf. Gentle to locally moderate winds 
are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the NW 
Gulf, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, high pressure over the southeastern Gulf 
should steadily strengthen this afternoon through Wed then drift 
eastward towards the Florida Peninsula where it will prevail 
through the weekend. This will tighten the pressure gradient 
against building lower pressure over the far western Gulf and 
will lead to fresh to strong southerly winds and moderate to 
rough seas through Sat. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A ridge of high pressure extends over the Atlantic waters north
of the area. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a 1006
mb low pressure over NW Colombia is supporting fresh to strong 
winds across the south central Caribbean, where seas are 7 to 10
ft. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere E of 80W. Seas are 4 
to 6 ft east of 70W and 5 to 8 ft north of 14N between 70W and 
80W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the western Caribbean,
where seas are in the 2-4 ft range. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge of high 
pressure N of the area and the Colombian low will support 
strong to near gale-force NE to E winds offshore Colombia through
late Wed along with moderate to rough seas. Mainly moderate to 
fresh trades are expected across the central and eastern 
Caribbean Wed night through Thu night, and gentle to moderate 
easterly winds the remainder of the forecast period. Moderate to 
fresh trades and moderate to rough seas will prevail over the 
tropical Atlantic waters and passages through Sat night. 
Otherwise, pulsing fresh to strong E winds are forecast in the 
Gulf of Honduras from late Wed through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is over the waters east the coast of northern 
Florida. The rest of the discussion waters are dominated by high
pressure, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 34N62W, and a
1024 mb high centered near 31N34W. Fresh southerly winds are 
found within 180 nm east of the trough, where seas are in the 6-8
ft range. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 5-6 ft are found 
west of the trough. Elsewhere west of 55W, gentle to moderate 
winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail. E of 55W, gentle to moderate
winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail north of 24N. South of 24N, 
moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 6-9 ft are noted. 

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong S to SE winds and 
rough seas to 8 ft will linger through this evening across the 
offshore waters NE of Freeport, N of 28N between 74W and 77W, 
associated with the remnants of a stationary front. As the front 
lifts northeastward into the western Atlantic tonight and Wed, 
winds will become SW behind the front and weaken. Farther south, 
pulsing fresh to strong E winds are expected each afternoon and 
evening offshore of northern Hispaniola through Thu. Elsewhere, 
moderate to locally fresh trade winds and rough seas in mixed NE 
and SE swell will prevail south of 25N this week, including 
across the Atlantic passages into the eastern Caribbean. 

$$
AL