667 
AXNT20 KNHC 031748
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Jun 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near 
23W, from 15N southward to 03N, moving westward at around 10 kt. 
Scattered showers are noted near the south end of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 09N13W and extends southwestward to near 06N16W. The 
ITCZ continues from 06N16W to 04N20W, where it is broken by a
tropical wave. The ITCZ then resumes at 05N27W, and extends to 
07N36W and then to 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 100 nm N of the ITCZ between 43W and 52W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough, the remnant of a stationary front, is over the 
NE Gulf. This trough along with an upper level low supports
numerous moderate and isolated strong convection in the far E Gulf
generally to the E of 86W, including the Florida Straits. A 
second surface trough is offshore the W Yucatan Peninsula and
extends into the Bay of Campeche. Scatterometer data indicates
moderate to fresh E and SE winds in the E and NE Gulf, with
moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Seas of 1-3 ft prevail across
the Gulf.

For the forecast, Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected 
each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into
the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves 
westward. Expect moderate to fresh SE winds and building seas 
across the western and south- central Gulf through Fri between a 
trough over northern Mexico and high pressure over the Carolinas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low is aiding in the development of scattered
moderate convection across much of the NW Caribbean W of 77W and N
of 14N. A ridge of high pressure is N of the Caribbean waters. 
The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the 
Colombian low is supporting fresh to near gale E winds over much 
of the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range over the central 
Caribbean, and 5-8 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds and moderate to rough 
seas will expand across most of the Caribbean into late week, then
diminish slightly at the end of the week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends over the NW waters off northern Florida.
This trough as well as an upper level low support numerous
moderate and isolated strong convection across the waters S of 28N
and W of 73W. High pressure dominates the remainder of the 
tropical and subtropical waters. Moderate to fresh trades and seas
of 4-7 ft prevail across areas S of 20N and W of 35W, as well as N
of 20N between the W coast of Africa and 50W. NE winds are locally
strong in between the Canary Islands and off the coast of Morocco.
Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail elsewhere
across the Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move into the 
region between northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight. The front 
will dissipate southeast of Bermuda late this week. Otherwise, 
high pressure will dominate, with a tightening pressure gradient 
leading to pulsing fresh to strong winds off the north coast of 
Hispaniola nightly through Fri. 

$$
Adams