000
AXNT20 KNHC 092310
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat May 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N15W and extends southwestward to 05N19W. The ITCZ
stretches from 05N19W to 02N35W to 01N51W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 00N to 04N between 05W and
23W. 

GULF OF AMERICA...

At 1800 UTC, a 1010 mb low pressure is centered near 28N91W. A 
cold front extends from the low center near Poza Rica, Mexico. A
wide band of showers and thunderstorms, with gusty winds to gale
force, is ahead of the front. Fresh to strong N winds and seas 
of 7 to 9 ft are noted in the wake of the front. East of the 
front and low, moderate to locally fresh SE winds and 2 to 4 ft 
seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will slowly progress 
to the south and east into early next week. Strong thunderstorms 
will continue along and ahead of the front, producing very strong 
winds and rough seas. Widespread fresh to strong N to NE winds are
also expected in the wake of the front through Sat, with the most
persistent strong winds occurring west of 95W offshore of Mexico 
into early Sat. Locally rough seas may accompany these winds, 
especially near Tampico and Veracruz. Winds will diminish by early
Sun. Farther east, low pressure looks to strengthen in the eastern
Gulf on Sat, producing fresh to strong winds surrounding the low
as it moves northeastward through the basin into early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A weak ridge north of the Caribbean supports gentle to moderate 
trades with the exception of moderate to fresh NE winds just S 
of Cabo Beata, Dominican Republic to about 15N. Seas are 3 to 5 
ft, except in the lee of Cuba where seas of 1 to 3 ft are noted. 
Shallow moisture, embedded in the trade winds, is moving across 
the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse in 
the Gulf of Honduras nightly into Sun, ahead of a cold front 
moving southeastward through the Gulf of America. Elsewhere, 
strong NE to E winds will pulse offshore of Colombia and through
the Gulf of Venezuela through Sat morning. Fresh to strong winds
and rough seas are then expected to expand across much of the 
central Caribbean late tonight through early next week as high 
pressure strengthens north of the area. Fresh to locally strong 
NE winds will also pulse through the Windward Passage into early 
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak 1015 mb low pressure is analyzed near 27N68W. No significant
weather is near this low. A cold front is approaching the Canary
Islands in the far east Atlantic, followed by strong NW winds and
9 to 13 ft seas. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region 
is under the influence of a 1033 mb high pressure located near 
38N46W. This system supports an area of fresh to locally strong E
to SE winds from 20N and 31N between 45W and 58W. Seas are 8 to 
9 ft within these winds. The tropical Atlantic is characterized 
by gentle to moderate trades and 4 to 7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh SE winds will pulse
and locally rough seas are expected east of 65W into Sun as a tight
pressure gradient prevails between high pressure in the central 
Atlantic and low pressure east of the Bahamas. Farther west, moderate
to fresh SE winds are slated to develop offshore of Florida and 
the Bahamas by Sat night ahead of a cold front moving through the
eastern Gulf of America. Looking ahead, strong S winds may develop
offshore of northern Florida early next week as the aforementioned
cold front moves into the western Atlantic.

$$
GR