997 
AXNT20 KNHC 161031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri May 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of 
Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, then curves southwestward to 05N25W. 
An ITCZ continues from 05N25W across 03N35W to the east coast of
Amapa State, Brazil. Scattered showers are observed south of the 
monsoon trough from 01N to 07N and between 15W and 24W. Scattered
moderate convection is found up to 160 nm along either side of the
ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the southwestern
Caribbean Sea near Costa Rica, Panama and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge reaches west-southwestward from a 1018 mb high
near Tampa, Florida to south of Tampico, Mexico. Gentle SE to SW 
winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are present at the eastern Gulf.
Gentle to moderate SE to E winds with 3 to 4 ft seas exist at the
central Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds along with seas at 4
to 6 ft prevail for the western Gulf, including the Bay of
Campeche.

For the forecast, tighter pressure gradient between the surface 
ridge at the eastern Gulf and lower pressure over eastern Mexico 
will sustain moderate to fresh southeasterly winds and moderate 
seas at the western Gulf through Tue. Pulsing fresh to locally 
strong E winds are likely each afternoon and evening, north of the
Yucatan Peninsula as a trough develops daily and drifts westward.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Convergent trade winds are coupling with divergent flow aloft to
produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
northeastern and east-central basin, including waters near Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin. A surface
ridge extending southwestward from a 1026 mb high near 33N51W to
beyond the central Bahamas is supporting a trade-wind pattern
across much of the Caribbean Sea. Mainly fresh E to ESE winds and
seas of 4 to 6 ft are evident at the south-central basin, and the
Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds with 2 to 4 
ft seas are found elsewhere in the northwestern basin. Light to 
gentle winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft exist near Costa Rica and 
Panama. Moderate to locally fresh ENE to ESE winds with 4 to 5 ft 
seas prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E to SE winds will 
pulse in the Gulf of Honduras during the late afternoon and 
nighttime hours through midweek next week. Moderate to fresh 
easterly winds with moderate seas should linger at the south-
central basin through tonight, and occur at the lee of Cuba and 
near the Windward Passage on Fri and Sat nights. Moderate to fresh
easterly trade winds and rough seas are going to persist in the 
Atlantic waters near and east of the Lesser Antilles through Sun 
night. Starting Sun night, easterly trade winds and swell will 
gradually build at the eastern basin, then shift westward across 
the central basin, and into the southwestern basin after midweek.


...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pronounced upper-level trough is generating scattered moderate
convection north of 20N between 62W and 70W. At the central and
eastern Atlantic, a surface trough/former cold front curves
southwestward from near 31N28W to 26N48W. Patchy showers are
occurring near and up to 150 nm south of this feature. Convergent
trades are causing scattered moderate convection north of Guyana,
Suriname and French Guiana. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to locally fresh SW winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft are
present off northeastern Florida. Otherwise, a broad sub-tropical
ridge extending southwestward from a 1026 mb high near 33N51W to
beyond the central Bahamas is sustaining gentle to moderate E to 
SE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas, north of 20N between 50W and the 
Florida coast/Bahamas. To the east, gentle to moderate NE to E
winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in large northerly swell exist north
of 20N between 35W and 50W. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to
20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E
winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft dominate. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds with 5 to 7 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the 
Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh ENE to E 
winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and the Windward Passage each
night through Sun night. Moderate to fresh SW winds off the 
northeastern Florida coast should subside to between gentle and 
moderate by this afternoon. In the long run, a cold front moving 
off the Carolina coast will bring moderate to fresh SW to W winds 
and building seas north of 28N from Sat night through Tue. 

$$

Chan