000
WTPZ32 KNHC 290553
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 34A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
1100 PM MST Mon Sep 28 2026
 
...POLO MAKES LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR JUST SOUTH OF LAS 
BARRANCAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING ONGOING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 112.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM N OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF MULEGE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe
* East coast of Baja California Sur, from Loreto to Bahia San Juan
Bautista
* Mainland Mexico from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia.
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo.
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 
12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should have 
already been completed.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
next 12 hours.
 
Interests in the remainder of Baja California Sur, and the remainder
of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should monitor the progress of Polo.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products 
issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo is making 
landfall now on the west coast of Baja California Sur just south of 
Las Barrancas near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 112.2 West. Polo 
is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion 
with a gradual acceleration is anticipated through Tuesday. On the 
forecast track, the core of Polo will continue moving across Baja 
California Sur tonight, then move inland over southern Sonora 
Tuesday morning.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Some weakening is expected while Polo travels over land 
during the next few hours, but Polo is still expected to be a 
hurricane when it makes its second landfall in mainland Mexico. 
Rapid weakening is forecast on Tuesday when Polo moves well inland 
over mainland Mexico.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue across Baja California Sur
in the warning area during the next several hours, and these
conditions are possible in the watch area tonight. In mainland
Mexico, hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area and
possible in the watch area early Tuesday morning.
 
A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of southern New Mexico and
far western Texas where strong gusty winds are possible late Tuesday
and Tuesday night in association with Polo’s remnants. Refer to
products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office for additional information.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12
inches across portions of Baja California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4
to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 expected across southern and
central portions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Polo will affect portions of the coast of
the Baja California peninsula and northwestern Mexico during the
next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products
from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen