Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Forecast Advisory


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


327 
WTNT22 KNHC 282042
TCMAT2

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022022
2100 UTC TUE JUN 28 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM THE PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA
WESTWARD TO THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER INCLUDING THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA
BORDER WESTWARD TO SANTA MARTA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
* ISLAS DE MARGARITA...COCHE AND CUBAGUA
* BONAIRE
* CURACAO
* ARUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES TO CUMANA
* COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM THE PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA
WESTWARD TO THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER INCLUDING THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA.
* COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA
BORDER WESTWARD TO SANTA MARTA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA SHOULD MONITOR
THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N  59.5W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N  59.5W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N  58.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 10.8N  62.5W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 11.4N  66.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 11.9N  70.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 12.1N  73.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.1N  77.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  30SE   0SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.0N  80.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  30SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 12.0N  85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 13.0N  90.5W
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N  59.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 29/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH