000
WTPZ45 KNHC 180834
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052025
300 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025
 
Satellite imagery indicates continued improvement in Erick’s 
structure, with deep convection wrapping tightly within the 
inner-core region. A recent AMSU microwave pass confirmed a 
better-organized inner core, consistent with the observed 
intensification trend. Although ASCAT data from several hours ago 
sampled about 40-kt peak winds in the northeastern quadrant, Erick 
has strengthened since that time. This is supported by the latest 
subjective Dvorak classifications of T3.5 from TAFB and T4.5 from 
SAB, while the objective ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS has increased to 
near 60 kt and continues to rise. Based on a blend of these data, 
the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt for this advisory.

Erick is moving northwestward at about 310/6 kt. This relatively 
slow forward motion has persisted for the past several hours, 
consistent with a weakening of the mid-level ridge to the north in 
response to a mid- to upper-level trough progressing eastward across 
the central United States. This general motion is expected to 
continue through landfall, which is forecast to occur early Thursday 
along the southern coast of Mexico. The track guidance remains in 
good agreement, and confidence in the overall track is relatively 
high. That said, small track deviations could still lead to 
significant changes in where and when the strongest winds and 
coastal impacts occur due to the oblique angle of approach. The 
official forecast aligns closely with the consensus of the HCCA and 
TVCE aids and remains near the previous NHC track.

The environment ahead of Erick remains highly conducive for 
additional strengthening, with sea surface temperatures near 29 C, 
low vertical wind shear, and abundant mid-level moisture. Several 
dynamic regional models project Erick to reach major hurricane 
strength before landfall, and the Rapid Intensification (RI) 
guidance continues to indicate a significant chance for rapid 
strengthening within the next 36 hours. The NHC forecast remains 
near the upper end of the guidance envelope but could still be 
somewhat conservative, especially if the current trend of improved 
structure continues today.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Erick is expected to rapidly intensify before reaching the coast
of southern Mexico on Thursday, and a hurricane warning is in effect
for portions of the coast of Oaxaca and Guerrero.
 
2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central 
America and Southwest Mexico through this week.  Life-threatening 
flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep 
terrain.
 
3. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in
areas of onshore winds.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0900Z 13.3N  95.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 13.9N  96.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 15.0N  97.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 16.7N  98.8W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 48H  20/0600Z 18.0N 100.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 60H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Blake