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Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 181452
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Lorena's cloud pattern has improved this morning, with the
development of a central dense overcast feature, and several bands
wrapping around the circulation.  The initial intensity has been
increased to 55 kt, which is in agreement subjective satellite
estimates from SAB, and objective estimates from UW/CIMSS.  Lorena
is located within favorable oceanic and atmospheric conditions, and
additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24
hours.  After that time, Lorena's intensity will depend on how much
interaction occurs with the mountainous terrain of southwestern
Mexico.  The latest NHC forecast takes the center along the
immediate coast and shows some slight weakening as this occurs.
After that time, re-strengthening is possible as Lorena is forecast
to traverse warm waters to the southeast of the Baja California
peninsula. It should be noted that the intensity forecast is more
uncertain than normal due to the potential for land interaction.

Lorena has moved a little right of the previous track.  Recent
microwave fixes indicated a northwestward motion of 325/11 kt.
Lorena is forecast to move northwestward around the southwestern
portion of mid-level ridge.  The overall track envelope has nudged
eastward, closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico.  In fact, the
ECMWF brings the center of Lorena onshore tonight, and that is a
distinct possibility.  The early portion of the NHC track has been
nudged eastward, and lies between the aforementioned ECMWF model
track and the various consensus aids.  After 24 hours, most of the
guidance turns Lorena west-northwestward as a narrow ridge builds to
the north of the cyclone.  During this portion of the track
forecast, the guidance has shifted to the right, and the NHC
forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena is forecast to become a hurricane and move dangerously
close to the coast of southwestern Mexico later today and tonight.
A hurricane warning has been issued for this area and preparations
to protect life in property should be rushed to completion.

2. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the
Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during
the next few days.  This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 17.4N 103.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 18.6N 104.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 19.8N 105.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 20.5N 106.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 21.2N 107.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 22.4N 110.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  22/1200Z 24.0N 112.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  23/1200Z 26.7N 114.2W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown