000
WTPZ45 KNHC 171438
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052026
800 AM PDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Recent satellite observations have shown that Elida's structure has 
not improved by a significant margin over the past several hours. 
Dry air is still entraining into the circulation, and the system 
remains asymmetric with most of the convection located over the 
eastern half of the circulation. Based on the available data, the 
intensity of Elida is held at 55 kt.  Tropical-storm-force 
winds extend well to the east and south of the center. 

Based on recent fixes, Elida's position has been shifted a bit 
to the north of the previous track with a initial motion estimated 
at 300/9 kt. A deep-layer trough remains entrenched off the west 
coast of the United States, which should cause Elida to turn 
northwestward and then north-northwestward by Sunday. The track 
guidance continues to shift a bit more to the east, thus the 
official NHC track forecast has again been nudged in that direction. 
The models do still have a wide spread of solutions at days 4 
and 5. 

Elida has a very limited time to strengthen over warm waters and 
in a low-shear environment. However, if the structure cannot improve 
quickly, then the chances of the cyclone becoming a hurricane will 
continue to decrease. The peak intensity has been brought down to 65 
kt with this advisory. This does keep the intensity forecast in-line 
with the bulk of the guidance. Weakening should being around 36 
hours due to Elida moving over cooler waters and into a region of 
increasing shear. Elida could lose organized deep convection and 
become post-tropical in 3 to 4 days. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/1500Z 16.8N 120.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 17.5N 121.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 18.7N 123.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 20.4N 124.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 22.0N 125.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  20/0000Z 24.1N 126.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  20/1200Z 26.0N 127.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  21/1200Z 30.4N 128.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  22/1200Z 33.5N 130.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi