426 
WTPZ45 KNHC 170236
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052026
800 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026
 
The satellite presentation of Elida consists of a large convective 
band that wraps around the eastern and southern portions of the 
circulation. Earlier AMSR2 passive microwave images showed that 
Elida has not yet solidified an inner core, with deep convection 
only partially wrapping around the center. There is a large spread 
in the various objective and subjective satellite-based intensity 
estimates this evening (49-65 kt). The structure has not improved 
since the prior advisory, so the initial intensity is held at 55 kt.

The long-term motion of Elida remains westward (280/9 kt), but 
recent visible satellite images suggest the storm is beginning to 
turn more west-northwestward as predicted. A northwestward motion is 
forecast on Friday and through the weekend as a deep-layer trough 
weakens the subtropical ridge to the north of Elida. This track 
forecast is very similar to the previous one, generally falling 
between HCCA and the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean. The forecast 
track was again nudged eastward at 96-120 h, in better agreement 
with the bulk of the latest guidance.

Elida has a 24-30 h window to strengthen within a low-shear, moist 
environment over very warm sea-surface temperatures. The updated NHC 
forecast still shows steady strengthening, with Elida predicted to 
become a hurricane on Friday and reach its peak intensity on Friday 
night or early Saturday. While rapid intensification cannot be ruled 
out, it seems less likely based on Elida's current structure. 
Progressively cooler waters and increasing vertical wind shear will 
cause Elida to steadily weaken over the weekend and into early next 
week. The system is predicted to lose organized convection and 
become a post-tropical low in 96 h. No significant changes were made 
to the NHC intensity forecast. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0300Z 15.9N 119.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 16.4N 120.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 17.5N 121.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 18.8N 123.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 20.4N 124.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  19/1200Z 22.1N 125.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  20/0000Z 23.7N 126.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  21/0000Z 27.5N 128.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  22/0000Z 30.0N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart