000
WTPZ45 KNHC 152040
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052026
200 PM MST Wed Jul 15 2026

The structure of Elida continues to slowly improve based on 
satellite observations. However, it does appear that some dry air 
and a bit of mid-level shear are impacting the growth of Elida at 
this time. Regardless, based on the improvement on satellite 
imagery, the subjective Dvorak estimate remaining at T3.0/45 kt, and 
objective intensity estimates ranging widely from 38 to 57 kt, the 
current intensity has been slightly increased to 45 kt.

Based on the satellite observations, Elida is moving slightly north 
of the previous forecast track at 280/12 kt. A prominent subtropical 
ridge north of Elida should maintain this general motion through the 
remainder of the day. Afterwards, this ridge is expected to shift 
eastward as a weakness develops ahead of Elida, associated with a 
mid-latitude trough located off the California coast. This synoptic 
weather pattern should allow Elida to begin gaining more latitude by 
the end of this week as it gradually turns northwestward. This track 
should continue through early next week. The track guidance is in 
fairly good agreement early on, but across-track spread increases 
notably by the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC track 
forecast was shifted a bit north and east based on a blend of the 
the GDMI, HCCA, and TVCN track guidance.
 
The tropical storm remains over very warm waters with plenty of  
environmental moisture. However, mid-level shear appears to be 
undercutting the convective outflow, and this could be importing 
drier air from the north. Thus, short-term intensification is 
forecast to be slow. A faster rate of intensification could occur in 
36-48 h if the storm develops a inner core. After 60 h, the tropical 
cyclone will cross the 26 C isotherm with weakening expected to 
begin by this weekend. The latest NHC intensity forecast maintains 
the same 80-kt peak as the prior cycle, and is close to the peak 
intensity of HCCA, but still higher than the HAFS-A/B guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 15.7N 114.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 15.8N 116.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 16.3N 118.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 17.0N 119.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 17.9N 121.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  18/0600Z 19.0N 122.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  18/1800Z 20.2N 124.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  19/1800Z 22.8N 126.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  20/1800Z 25.4N 129.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Papin