074 
WTPZ45 KNHC 172032
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052025
300 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025
 
Erick has continued to become better organized in visible satellite 
imagery, with an extended cloud band curling one revolution around 
the center.  However, there is also some evidence of a dry slot 
filtering into the circulation from the southeast, and possibly as 
a result, infrared cloud top temperatures in the band are not as 
cold as they could be.  Subjective Dvorak classifications have 
risen to T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB, but the 
initial intensity is held conservatively at 45 kt since objective 
numbers are closest to the TAFB estimate.

The center appears to have turned northwestward (310 degrees) and 
is moving around 6 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the north of the 
cyclone, and a mid-/upper-level trough over northern Mexico, should 
keep Erick on a generally northwestward trajectory for the next 
couple of days, with a gradual increase in forward speed.  The NHC 
forecast track lies close to the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids, and 
it a little east of the previous prediction.  Because of the 
oblique angle of Erick's track relative to the coast, it is 
impossible to know exactly where the strongest winds might occur, 
but it is becoming increasingly likely that they will occur in the 
area of western Oaxaca or eastern Guerrero states.
 
Despite the current convective pattern, the environment of low wind 
shear, high mid-level moisture, and warm sea surface temperatures 
should still support rapid strengthening.  Erick also has the 
structure to enable rapid intensification, and it may only take 
mixing out some of the dry air for that process to begin.  Rapid 
intensification (RI) indices fell a little on this forecast cycle, 
mainly due to a negative contribution from the influx of drier 
boundary layer air.  However, assuming this dry air can mix out, 
the NHC intensity forecast continues to be near the high end of the 
guidance (closest to HCCA and HMON), and still shows Erick near or 
at major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of 
southern Mexico.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Erick is expected to rapidly intensify before reaching the coast
of southern Mexico on Thursday, and a hurricane warning is in effect 
for portions of the coast of Oaxaca.  A hurricane watch is in effect 
for portions of the Guerrero coast.
 
2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central 
America and Southwest Mexico through this week.  Life-threatening 
flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of steep 
terrain.
 
3. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in
areas of onshore winds.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/2100Z 12.9N  94.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 13.3N  95.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 14.2N  96.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 15.4N  97.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 16.9N  99.0W   80 KT  90 MPH...INLAND
 60H  20/0600Z 18.3N 100.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 72H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg