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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 092040
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
300 PM MDT Sun Aug 09 2020

Elida appears to be on a strengthening trend.  Visible satellite
images indicate that the storm's banding features are becoming more
tightly wrapped and symmetric around the center.  An ASCAT pass
from around 16Z showed maximum winds near 40 kt, but since the
storm continues to organize, the initial intensity is set a little
higher at 45 kt.  This intensity estimate is in agreement with the
18Z Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, but slightly below
the latest SATCON and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of
Wisconsin.

Elida is likely on its way to becoming a hurricane as the
environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for
strengthening during the next 36 to 48 hours.  Now that the
storm appears to have a well-defined inner core and outer bands,
rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours with some
additional intensification expected until it reaches cooler waters 
in a couple of days.  After 48 hours, cooler waters and drier air
should cause a gradual decay of the system, and Elida is expected to
steadily weaken and become a remnant low by day 5.  The NHC
intensity forecast lies at the high end of the guidance, near HCCA,
in the short term, but ends near the middle of the guidance
envelope at the longer range times.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 13 kt.  The
track forecast appears fairly straightforward.  A mid-level ridge
that stretches across northern Mexico and over a portion of the
east Pacific should cause Elida to move generally
west-northwestward at about the same forward speed during the next
few days.  After that time, a slower westward or west-southwestward
motion is expected as the weakening cyclone is steered by the
low-level trade wind flow.  The models are in fairly good 
agreement, and this forecast lies near the various consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 17.0N 106.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 17.9N 108.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 18.9N 111.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 19.6N 113.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 20.3N 116.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  12/0600Z 21.0N 118.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 21.6N 120.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  13/1800Z 21.9N 124.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  14/1800Z 21.3N 127.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi