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Post-Tropical Cyclone Norbert Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 150831
TCDEP4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Norbert Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192020
200 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2020

Vertical wind shear, cool waters, and a dry and stable atmosphere 
have taken a toll on Norbert.  The system has been devoid of deep 
convection for more than 12 hours, and therefore it has become a 
post-tropical cyclone.  The initial wind speed is set at 25 kt, 
which is based on a TAFB Dvorak CI number of T1.5.  This could 
be a little generous as the system has likely continued to spin 
down since the previous advisory.  The remnant low should continue 
to weaken today, and the global models indicate that the low will 
open up into a trough of low pressure off the west coast of the 
Baja California peninsula by tonight.

The post-tropical cyclone has slowed down and is now moving
north-northwestward at about 6 kt.  A slow north-northwestward 
motion within the weak low-level steering flow is expected until 
dissipation occurs.

This is the last NHC advisory on Norbert.  For additional
information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 26.2N 116.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  15/1800Z 27.1N 116.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


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Page last modified: Thursday, 15-Oct-2020 08:32:02 UTC