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Tropical Storm Celia Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 261434
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
900 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022

This morning's satellite presentation shows very little change in
Celia's cloud pattern.  However, the cloud tops associated with the 
deep convection are beginning to warm.  The latest AMSR2 microwave 
revealed a symmetric cyclone with an eye-like feature in the 
low-frequency band.  Therefore, the initial intensity is 
conservatively held at 45 kt and is supported by a blend of the 
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates.

Celia should gradually weaken while it moves into a stable and 
dry surrounding atmosphere, and over cooler oceanic surface 
temperatures. Accordingly, Celia is expected to degenerate into a 
post-tropical cyclone on Monday and dissipate toward the end of the 
week, and this scenario is in agreement with the latest statistical 
and dynamical intensity guidance.

Celia's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 
285/6 kt, just a little bit to the left of the previous advisory 
motion.  The forecast track philosophy remains the same.  A 
mid-tropospheric ridge anchored over the eastern North Pacific 
should steer the cyclone on a continued west-northwestward course 
through the forecast period.  The official NHC forecast is based on 
the various tightly clustered consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 19.1N 113.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 19.5N 114.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 20.3N 116.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 21.1N 118.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  28/1200Z 21.9N 120.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  29/0000Z 22.6N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/1200Z 23.2N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts