000
WTPZ42 KNHC 312034
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072025
1100 AM HST Thu Jul 31 2025
 
Gil has been holding steady since the last advisory.  A 
scatterometer pass from 1729 UTC showed the low-level center near 
the northern edge of the Central Dense Overcast (CDO) suggesting the 
cyclone is experiencing moderate vertical wind shear.  The initial 
intensity is held at 45 kt for this cycle, in agreement with the 
TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates.  While the scatterometer pass only 
covered the western half of the storm, it did provide information 
used to update some of the tropical-storm-force radii.

The motion is west-northwestward at 11 kt along the southern 
periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the Baja California 
peninsula.  This general motion, with a gradual increase in forward 
speed, should continue through the weekend.  By early next week, 
Gil should turn more westward in the trade winds.  Only slight 
adjustments have been made to the latest official track forecast.

Global models predict that the vertical wind shear should 
gradually abate over the next 12 hours or so.  After this occurs, 
the warm sea surface temperatures and ample mid-level moisture 
should allow Gil to continue to strengthen for the next day or so.  
By Saturday, the storm is expected to cross the 26 degree isotherm 
and move over progressively cooler waters.  This should induce a 
steady-to-rapid weakening trend through the end of the forecast 
period.  Gil is still predicted to lose its organized deep 
convection and become a remnant low by day 4.  The intensity 
guidance predictions have decreased somewhat this cycle and the 
official forecast now lies near the upper end of the guidance 
envelope. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/2100Z 13.5N 117.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 14.4N 119.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 15.6N 122.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 17.0N 125.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 18.4N 129.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  03/0600Z 19.7N 132.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 20.7N 135.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 21.8N 141.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  05/1800Z 22.6N 147.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci