010 
WTPZ42 KNHC 080840
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022025
300 AM CST Sun Jun 08 2025
 
Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in 
association with an area of low pressure located offshore of 
southwestern Mexico. A small, persistent area of deep convection has 
been observed in satellite images tonight, and recent scatterometer 
data confirm this has led to the formation of a well-defined, closed 
low-level circulation. Therefore, the NHC is starting advisories on 
Tropical Storm Barbara with an initial intensity of 40 kt based on 
the earlier scatterometer winds.

Barbara is currently within a moist and relatively low shear 
environment over warm waters. So, strengthening is expected during 
the next day or so, and this could occur quickly given recent 
satellite trends and the small size of the storm. The official NHC 
forecast shows Barbara becoming a hurricane in 24 h, which is 
supported by HAFS-A/B and the HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA). The 
window for strengthening is brief, as Barbara is forecast to move 
over cooler waters and into a drier mid-level environment by 48 h. 
This should disrupt the convective structure of the storm and result 
in weakening. By day 5, the remnant low of Barbara is forecast to 
either dissipate or become absorbed by the circulation of EP91.

Barbara is moving west-northwestward (295/10 kt) on the south side 
of a mid-level ridge, and this motion should continue over the next 
couple of days. For this time period, the NHC forecast generally 
lies near or between the simple and corrected consensus aids. Given 
the forecast track and wind radii, tropical-storm-force winds 
are not expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico. By 
Tuesday, the track forecast becomes more complicated given the 
potential for binary interaction between Barbara and another 
disturbance (EP91) with a high chance of formation. Because of this, 
the long-range track forecast could be subject to larger future 
adjustments depending on the evolution of EP91.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0900Z 15.2N 102.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 15.8N 103.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 17.0N 105.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  09/1800Z 18.3N 107.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  10/0600Z 19.1N 108.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  10/1800Z 19.6N 110.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  11/0600Z 19.8N 112.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  12/0600Z 19.5N 114.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart