Hurricane Flossie Forecast Discussion
Español: Aviso Publico Discusión |
280 WTPZ41 KNHC 012032 TCDEP1 Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025 Flossie continues to intensify this afternoon, with deep cold convection wrapping around the eyewall. GOES satellite visible imagery shows an eye has been trying to clear out and warm throughout the day. The latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are between 90-95 kt. Based on the latest trends and these estimates, the initial intensity is set to 95 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is 300/9 kt. A general west-northwest to northwestward motion is forecast over the next few days as Flossie moves toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. As the system begins to weaken, a more westward motion is anticipated as the storm is steered by the low-level wind flow. The latest NHC track forecast track lies near the previous, which is near the HCCA corrected consensus. Flossie will remain in a favorable environment, with warm SSTs, plentiful moisture, and weak wind shear for the next 12-24 hours. Along the forecast track the system will be moving into increasingly cooler SSTs and drier air in about 24 h. The latest NHC forecast is for some additional strengthening in the short term, which is above all available guidance. Afterwards, Flossie is expected to rapidly weaken, with the system becoming post-tropical by 72 h, and a remnant low by 96 h and dissipated by day 5. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains at the high end of the guidance in the short term, before trending towards the consensus aids as the system weakens. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Outer bands of Hurricane Flossie continue to bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. Localized flash flooding is possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico for the next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 17.7N 106.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 18.5N 107.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 19.5N 109.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 20.4N 110.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 21.3N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 04/1800Z 22.9N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 05/1800Z 24.0N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams