000
WTPZ41 KNHC 010847
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
300 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025

Flossie continues to strengthen early this morning, evident by an 
expanding central dense overcast (CDO) over the low-level center of 
the cyclone.  A couple recent scatterometer passes at 0337z and 
0428z helped in locating the center underneath the CDO, and assisted 
with the refinement of the 34 and 50 knot wind radii.  The latest 
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates came in at T4.0/65 knots from 
both SAB and TAFB. The objective intensity estimates ranged from 69 
to 79 knots at 06z.  Based on a blend of these estimates, and taking 
into account the improved satellite presentation during the past few 
hours, the initial intensity has been raised to 75 knots for this 
advisory.  

Flossie is heading toward the west-northwest or 300/09 knots. This 
motion is expected to continue during the next several days with a 
slight decrease in forward speed, as the cyclone is steered into a 
weakness in the mid-level ridge to the northwest of the system. The 
track forecast is very close to the previous advisory and is closely 
aligned with a blend of the latest HCCA, TVCE, and FSSE consensus 
aids as well as the latest EC-AIFS run.

The environment will remain very conducive for strengthening during 
the next 24 to 36 hours, with warm sea surface temperatures of 
28/29C, abundant mid-level moisture, and light vertical wind shear. 
The latest SHIPS RI probabilities show a greater than 40 percent 
chance of a 25-knot increase in 24 hours, and the official forecast 
reflects this. Rapid weakening will then begin by 48 hours as 
Flossie moves over progressively cooler water and begins to entrain 
dry mid-level air.  The system is forecast to become a post-tropical 
low by 72 hours and a remnant low at 96 hours. The intensity 
forecast is on the high end of the intensity aids, closest to SHIPS 
and NNIC.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. The outer bands of Hurricane Flossie should bring locally heavy 
rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero,  
Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. Life-threatening 
flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in steep terrain.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico, through today.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 16.9N 105.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 17.5N 106.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 18.4N 107.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 19.2N 109.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 20.0N 110.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  03/1800Z 20.9N 111.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 21.9N 112.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  05/0600Z 23.7N 114.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/0600Z 24.0N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema