305 
WTPZ41 KNHC 210244
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062026
800 PM PDT Mon Jul 20 2026
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Fausto has continued to become 
better organized during the past several hours. Although some 
residual northerly shear remains evident, satellite imagery shows 
that the low- and mid-level circulations have become much better 
aligned than they were yesterday. Recent microwave and scatterometer 
data also support the improved structure, and the latest subjective 
Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB indicate that Fausto has reached 
hurricane intensity. Based on these data and the improving satellite 
presentation, the initial intensity is increased to 65 kt, making 
Fausto the first hurricane of the 2026 eastern North Pacific 
hurricane season.

The initial motion is estimated to be 315/8 kt. A slower 
northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two as the 
cyclone moves toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. By 
Wednesday, high pressure is forecast to build north of Fausto, 
causing the cyclone to turn west-northwestward and gradually 
accelerate. Track guidance remains tightly clustered through about 
72 h. Thereafter, a gradual increase in cross-track spread develops, 
with the GFS and the multi-model consensus (HCCA) on the right side 
of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF and GDMI on the left, or 
south, side. The updated NHC forecast is very close to the previous 
advisory and reflects a blend of the HCCA and the Google DeepMind 
ensemble mean.

Fausto is expected to move into an environment of lower vertical 
wind shear while remaining over warm waters and within a moist air 
mass during the next couple of days. These conditions should support 
steady to rapid strengthening, although some lingering northwesterly 
shear could initially temper the rate of intensification. The NHC 
intensity forecast calls for Fausto to approach major hurricane 
intensity in about 48 h and remains near the middle of the guidance 
envelope through this time. A gradual weakening trend is expected 
thereafter as the cyclone moves over progressively cooler waters and 
into a drier, more stable environment.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0300Z 14.7N 117.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 15.5N 118.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 16.2N 119.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 16.7N 121.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 17.1N 123.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  23/1200Z 17.5N 125.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  24/0000Z 17.9N 127.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  25/0000Z 18.8N 133.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  26/0000Z 19.7N 138.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)