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Post-Tropical Cyclone Kevin Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 121431
TCDEP1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Kevin Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112021
800 AM PDT Thu Aug 12 2021

A little bit of convection continues to persist about 200 n mi to 
the southwest of Kevin's center, but at that distance, it is not 
considered organized in relation to the cyclone.  In fact, Kevin has 
had this structure for a good 18 hours or so, and it has 
therefore degenerated into a remnant low.  Based on last evening's 
ASCAT passes, it is assumed that winds as high as 30 kt are still 
occurring within the circulation.  However, the center will be 
moving over waters colder than 23 degrees Celsius very soon, so a 
gradual decrease in the winds is expected over the next couple of 
days.  Dissipation of the remnant low in expected in about 3 days.

Kevin is moving toward the west-northwest, or 300/12 kt.  The 
remnant low is expected to move along the southwestern periphery of 
a low- to mid-level ridge centered over the United States and 
Mexico, which should cause a west-northwestward or northwestward 
motion until dissipation.  There is very little spread in the track 
guidance, and this last NHC track forecast is just an update of 
the previous one.

This is the last advisory being issued for Kevin.  For additional 
information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts 
issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI 
and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 23.2N 120.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  13/0000Z 24.2N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  13/1200Z 25.5N 124.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  14/0000Z 27.0N 126.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/1200Z 28.7N 128.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  15/0000Z 30.2N 129.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


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Page last modified: Thursday, 12-Aug-2021 14:31:26 UTC