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Post-Tropical Cyclone Andres Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 111438
TCDEP1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Andres Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012021
900 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021

Hostile environmental conditions have reduced Andres to an exposed, 
low-level cloud swirl. Although a small burst of convection was 
noted earlier this morning over 100 n mi northeast of the center, 
Andres has been without organized deep convection near its center 
for over 12 hours. Therefore, the cyclone has become a remnant low, 
and this will be the final NHC advisory on Andres.

The remnant low is moving just south of due west and will continue 
moving westward within the low-level trade wind flow until it 
dissipates on Wednesday night. Overnight scatterometer data 
indicated that 20-25 kt winds were confined to the northwest 
quadrant of Andres, between the cyclone and a subtropical ridge to 
its northwest. Continued weakening is expected as the remnant low 
moves into a drier, more stable environment with increasing wind 
shear and decreasing sea-surface temperatures.

This is the last NHC advisory on Andres. For additional information 
on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the 
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header 
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 15.8N 111.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  12/0000Z 15.8N 112.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  12/1200Z 15.7N 113.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Brown