974 
WTPZ41 KNHC 020835
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
200 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025
 
Flossie remains an impressive hurricane early this morning, although 
the well-defined eye evident earlier tonight has become less 
distinct and somewhat cloud filled in recent satellite images.  The 
latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T5.5/102 knots 
from TAFB and T5.0/90 knots from SAB. Meanwhile, the objective 
intensity estimates ranged from 96 to 107 knots at 06z.  Based on a 
blend of these data, the initial intensity will be held at 100 knots 
for this advisory. 

Flossie is heading toward the west-northwest or 300/9 knots. This 
general motion is expected to continue during the next several days 
as the cyclone is steered into a weakness in the mid-level ridge to 
the northwest of the system. A turn more to the west is expected 
beyond 48 hours as the increasingly shallow system becomes steered 
by the low-level trade wind flow.  The track forecast has been 
shifted slightly to the left of the previous advisory to align with 
the latest consensus guidance trends, and closely follows a blend of 
the latest GDMI, FSSE and TVCE consensus aids.

The window for additional strengthening appears to be closing 
quickly, as Flossie begins to move over slightly less conducive 
waters for intensification with sea surface temperatures now around 
27C.  Wind shear remains light and mid-level moisture remains high 
during the next 12 hours, so with the system remaining over 
adequately warm water, the intensity should change little.  Flossie 
will move over much cooler water between 12 and 24 hours, and into a 
drier mid-level environment.  This should result in rather rapid 
weakening of the system, with Flossie expected to become a 
post-tropical low by 48 hours, with dissipation following by 96 
hours. The intensity forecast has been adjusted to show a bit faster 
weakening of the system which is in line with the latest intensity 
consensus aids.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Outer bands of Hurricane Flossie continue to bring locally heavy 
rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, 
Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. Localized flash flooding is 
possible.
 
2. Large swells generated by Flossie will cause life-threatening 
surf and rip current conditions along portions of the coast of 
southwestern Mexico, and the Baja California peninsula during the
next few days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 18.6N 108.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 19.3N 109.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 20.2N 110.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 21.0N 112.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 22.1N 113.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  04/1800Z 23.0N 115.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/0600Z 23.7N 117.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema