930 
WTNT43 KNHC 050852
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
500 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025
 
The depression has been showing signs of organization overnight, 
with a significant burst of deep convection currently seen on 
GOES-19 infrared imagery on the eastern semicircle of the tropical 
cyclone. However, the center of the tropical depression appears to 
still be displaced westward from this burst, estimated to be on the 
edge of the larger cirrus plume. An earlier scatterometer pass 
received just after the prior advisory indicated the peak winds were 
up to 32 kt, so the depression may be close to tropical storm 
strength. For now though, the initial intensity is being held at 30 
kt blending the lower subjective and higher objective Dvorak 
intensity estimates. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance mission is 
scheduled to sample the system later this morning and should provide 
more in-situ information about the cyclone later today.
 
The depression continues to meander this morning, with my best guess 
at an estimated motion to be at 030/2-kt. The track forecast in the 
short-term is somewhat tricky, since the lopsided nature of the 
convection with the system suggests that there could be some center 
reformations/relocations to the north and/or east later today. 
Thereafter, the main steering features are a mid-to-upper level low 
over the northeastern Gulf, and a narrow mid-level ridge to the 
northeast of the depression. Their combined influence should result 
in a general north-northwestward track over the next 24-36 h.  The 
track guidance this cycle has come in further east this run, 
somewhat in response to the adjusted initial position. The NHC track 
forecast has been shifted eastward in response to this shift in the 
guidance, favoring the deterministic ECMWF (EMXI) over the GFS 
(AVNI), but it is not as far west as some of the track aids, 
including the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean (GDMI) and European 
deterministic AIFS (EAII). 

The vertical wind shear over the system is probably the most 
unfavorable it will be as the system remains over the warm Gulf 
Stream waters. In fact, both the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance 
shows the current southwesterly shear decreasing from 20 kt 
currently to more like 10-15 kt over the next 24 h. However, there 
is some dry mid-level air lurking to east that might temper more 
robust intensification. All things considered, assuming the 
depression becomes better aligned vertically, at least some modest 
intensification should occur, and the latest NHC intensity forecast 
still shows a peak intensity of 40 kt before the system moves inland 
over South Carolina on Sunday Morning. While this forecast is on the 
upper end of the interpolated intensity guidance, the raw output 
from both the 00z HAFS-A and HAFS-B have a peak intensity a little 
above that value in 24 h. After landfall, the cyclone should weaken 
and is forecast to become post-tropical in about 48 h. It is a 
little unclear if the circulation will open up into a trough by 
early next week or if some remnant circulation will move back 
offshore beyond that time period. For now, the NHC forecast will 
stick to the former solution showing dissipation by 60 h. 
 
Given the eastward shift in the guidance this cycle, the Tropical 
Storm Watch has been extended eastward to Cape Fear, North Carolina 
this advisory. 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning.
 
2. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will cause some flash 
flooding concerns from Tropical Depression Three from today through 
Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding could occur within more 
urbanized areas along the coastal plain of the Carolinas.
 
3. The system is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to
much of southeastern United States north of northeastern
Florida during the next couple of days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0900Z 30.8N  78.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 31.5N  78.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 32.6N  79.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 33.7N  79.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  07/0600Z 34.8N  78.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  07/1800Z 36.3N  77.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin