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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion


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747 
WTNT42 KNHC 220848
TCDAT2

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
500 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2020

Epsilon's eye has lost some definition and become cloud filled in
conventional satellite imagery during the past few hours, and an
0604 UTC AMSR2 microwave image showed that the eyewall has been
eroded on the west side.  Given the degradation of the cloud pattern
and lowering Dvorak estimates, Epsilon's initial intensity is being
set, likely generously, at 95 kt.  A recent UW-CIMSS SATCON
estimate suggests that the intensity could be 10-15 kt lower than
that, but I'd rather we see the aircraft reconnaissance data in a
few hours before reducing it any further.

Epsilon's trochoidal wobbles have continued overnight, but a
longer-term 12-hour motion suggests that the hurricane has turned
toward the northwest (320/6 kt).  A mid-tropospheric high over the
central Atlantic will be Epsilon's main driver, causing the
hurricane to turn toward the north-northwest later today and then
toward the north tonight.  Shorter-term deviations around this
general trajectory will be possible if the trochoidal oscillations
continue through the day.  Epsilon is forecast to turn toward the
northeast and accelerate on Saturday when it becomes embedded
in the mid-latitude westerlies, taking it past southeastern
Newfoundland and into the north Atlantic early next week.  The new
NHC track forecast is down the middle of the tightly clustered
model guidance, and close to the TVCN multi-model consensus.
However, because of the recent wobbles, this new forecast lies
about 40 n mi to the east of the previous forecast during the first
36 hours.

Epsilon's forecast track takes it over a rather homogeneous field
of sea surface temperatures between 25-26 degrees Celsius for the
next 48-60 hours as vertical shear increases somewhat.  Gradual
weakening is anticipated during that period, but a more sudden
decrease in ocean temperatures after 60 hours should induce quicker
weakening thereafter.  Hurricane and global models both agree on
this scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast is very close to the
IVCN consensus and the HFIP Corrected Consensus.  Epsilon is
expected to merge with a frontal zone and become extratropical by
day 4.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on Bermuda
through this evening, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest
approach east of the island.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect
for Bermuda.

2. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents
are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater
Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States,
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 30.6N  60.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 31.6N  61.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 33.0N  61.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 34.7N  61.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 36.6N  61.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  24/1800Z 38.7N  59.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 41.6N  54.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 50.0N  36.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  27/0600Z 60.0N  22.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg