000
WTNT41 KNHC 250847
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
900 AM GMT Fri Sep 25 2026
 
Fay continues to produce bursts of deep convection near and to the 
west of the low-level center this morning, remaining resilient to 
the dry mid-level environment. Subjective and objective satellite 
intensity estimates range between 35 to 48 kt. Using these 
estimates, the initial intensity is maintained at 45 kt for this 
advisory.
 
Given warm sea-surface temperatures of 27-28 deg C, some slight 
strengthening is possible during the next 12 h or so. However, 
vertical wind shear is forecast to increase later tonight. As the 
shear increases and the mid-levels remain quite dry, with relative 
humidity values in the mid 30s, Fay should gradually weaken. The 
system is expected to lose deep convection once again over the 
weekend, becoming a post-tropical cyclone. The NHC intensity 
forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is in good 
agreement with the tightly clustered intensity guidance. The only 
change to the forecast is that dissipation has been delayed, as the 
global models continue to show the remnant low meandering over the 
central Atlantic for a few more days.
 
The storm continues to move westward with an estimated initial 
motion of 270/5 kt along the southern periphery of a mid-level 
ridge. A gradual turn toward the west-southwest and then southwest 
is expected to being in a day or so as Fay becomes a vertically 
shallow cyclone and becomes steered by the low-level flow. The 
latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies 
near the HCCA corrected consensus aid.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0900Z 29.8N  42.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 29.7N  43.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 29.7N  44.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 29.5N  45.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 29.3N  45.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  27/1800Z 29.0N  45.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/0600Z 28.5N  46.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/0600Z 27.6N  46.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly