000
WTNT41 KNHC 162050
TCDAT1
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012026
400 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

The low pressure area continues to produce disorganized deep 
convection mostly over water, almost exclusively in the eastern 
semicircle.  However, the low-level center has become better 
defined during the day according to satellite and surface data, 
along with falling pressures.  While the system is fairly close to 
transitioning into a tropical depression, it is still a bit shy of 
a well-defined center and consistent convection.  Thus the system 
remains a potential tropical cyclone, and the initial intensity 
is 25 kt based on surface and radar data.
 
The low continues to slowly move northeastward.  It is expected to 
move offshore of south Texas tonight and accelerate northeastward 
along the coast on Wednesday due to the system encountering faster 
flow associated with a mid-latitude trough over the eastern United 
States.  Model guidance is about the same as before, moving very 
near the Texas coast on Wednesday before going back onshore late 
Wednesday or Wednesday night.  No significant changes were 
made to the track forecast.  The circulation is expected to 
quickly dissipate over central Louisiana on Thursday.

The center should move far enough offshore on Wednesday for some 
intensification to occur due to a combination of warm Gulf waters 
and upper-level jet dynamics.  Most of the guidance show the system 
becoming a tropical storm tomorrow, and the official forecast is 
basically an update of the previous one.  

Regardless of whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone, heavy 
rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding will be the primary 
hazards with this system. 
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding is likely 
through Thursday across Louisiana and southern Mississippi, and is 
possible near the Upper Texas coast.  Flash flooding is also 
possible across Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle through 
the end of the week.  Prolonged rainfall may extend the flood 
threat into the weekend. 
 
2. Tropical-storm force winds are expected along the Louisiana 
coast on Wednesday from Sabine Pass to Morgan City where a Tropical 
Storm Warning is now in effect. 
 
3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of 
the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/2100Z 27.3N  97.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  17/0600Z 27.9N  96.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  17/1800Z 29.2N  94.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 31.0N  92.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake