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Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Forecast Discussion (Text)


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157 
WTNT41 KNHC 191446
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012020
1100 AM AST Tue May 19 2020

Arthur has transitioned into an extratropical low this morning with
a warm front extending northeastward from the circulation, any deep 
convection only along the front, and lots of more stable cumulus 
clouds near the center.  Thus this is the last advisory.  The 
initial intensity remains 50 kt based on continuity and model 
analyses.

The main adjustments to the previous forecast include a quicker
dissipation of the post-tropical cyclone, somewhat linked to the
models showing a faster weakening after 12 hours, and a
continuation of the westward shift in the track forecast in a day
or two.  These changes are consistent with the latest model
consensus for track and similar to a GFS/ECMWF blend for intensity.

Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to
continue along portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S.
coasts during the next couple of days.  See products from your local
National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 36.8N  68.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  20/0000Z 36.4N  66.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  20/1200Z 35.2N  65.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  21/0000Z 33.6N  65.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  21/1200Z 32.0N  64.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 19-May-2020 14:46:55 UTC