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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT41 KNHC 222050
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number  43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172020
900 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020

Although Paulette lacks the typical definition for deep convection, 
there remains some convection with cloud tops to -20 deg C 
encircling an eye-like feature noted in the lower cloud layer. Given 
the low tropopause level across that portion of the Atlantic basin 
causing the relatively low cloud tops, Paulette is being maintained 
as a tropical cyclone for at least this cycle. Vertical wind shear 
near 30 kt along with sea-surface temperatures of 23-22 deg C are 
expected to result in a gradual weakening and spin down of 
Paulette's circulation throughout the forecast period. As a result, 
the small cyclone should become a remnant low on Wednesday and 
dissipate by Friday or Saturday when the shallow system will be 
moving westward into westerly mid-level shear.

Paulette is moving eastward or 080/10 kt. This general motion is 
forecast to continue through Wednesday as Paulette remains embedded 
within deep-layer westerly flow on the east side of mid- to 
upper-level trough. As Paulette weakens and becomes more vertically 
shallow, the post-tropical cyclone is expected to slow down in the 
36-48 time period and turn southward. Thereafter, Paulette should be 
steered westward by low-level easterly flow on the south side of 
the Bermuda-Azores High. The new NHC track forecast is similar to 
the previous advisory track, and essentially lies down the middle 
of the NHC track guidance models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 34.8N  21.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 35.0N  19.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  23/1800Z 35.4N  17.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/0600Z 35.3N  16.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/1800Z 34.7N  16.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  25/0600Z 33.6N  19.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/1800Z 32.8N  22.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 22-Sep-2020 20:51:20 UTC